1) They report sales trends that are at least 3 months old. So right now they are talking about Christmas and January sales trends. Those months tend to be slower.

2) They are using national data and applying it to Arizona. That is like saying that Arizona's average summer temperature is 75 degrees because that is what it is nationally.

3) They keep reporting that we won't recover until 2014, which is a minority view.

4) They keep talking about a glut of homes coming on the market, which has not happened the last three times they reported on it and shows little understanding of how banks like to slowly let homes on to the market to avoid price drops.

5) They ignore that certain parts of the city, specifically Central Phoenix, are doing better than the suburbs and people are moving in to town, thus driving the market!

1) You can never perfectly guess the lowest or highest point of the market. But if you buy generally in the low point and sell generally in the high point, then you are following Warren Buffet's model (be greedy when the market is bad and miserly when the market is good).

2) I sold my first house at 2.5 times what I bought it for because I sold when I first started hearing news on the radio of price drops. Well, we are getting news of price increases now, so my estimate is that now is the time to buy.

3) If you are buying for yourself, then you don't need to worry too much about price fluctuations. This is not day trading. Buy it low and hold it for at least 5 years. You will be fine.

4) The market may not recover tomorrow. It will probably not fall lower. But if you are buying now and holding you are in a great position.

No, not the movie, the tax credit. You have 28 days to get an offer accepted on a home if you hope to get the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit or the $6,500 returning buyer tax credit. Click on the title to learn how to get 'er done in time.

Somebody the other day said to me that they could not get a house because they could not come up with 20% down. Folks, that was a false rumor that went around last year. FHA loans are 3.5% down and conventional are between 5% and 10% down, depending on the lender.

People tend to show interest in restoring homes about 60 years after they stop building that particular style. It makes me wonder who in the world would ever be interested in restoring a red-tiled roof stick box in the burbs. But to each his own. Anyway, if you get this newsletter in time, check out the Al Beadle retrospective at Phoenix Metro Retro tonight. Watch for homes of this era to become very popular in the next 5 years.

The good folks in the Melrose neighborhood area are seeking a grant from Pepsi so they can put a community garden right on the Melrose Curve. All you have to do is vote every day at the Pepsi website. The most votes win, naturally. See the link for instructions on how you can participate, starting today.

Y'all know that I want us to have more competitive congressional and legislative districts. This is the most important reform in our lifetimes. Well, now there is a movie. Learn more at the link, above. I hope to help these folks launch the movie in Arizona.