Tidings 

 

Iran Watch

 

Tensions rose severely in the Persian Gulf after a series of Iranian provocations. First, Iran held a major, 10-day naval wargame near the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at demonstrating Iranian control of the Persian Gulf. Second, as part of the exercises, Iran test-fired a Qader cruise missile. The missile has a range of 125 miles, which would threaten many American forces in the region. Third, Tehran released a video taken from one its aircraft that was tracking the U.S.S. John C. Stennis, a U.S. aircraft carrier, from close-range as it was exiting the Persian Gulf.  Iran's Army chief publicly warned the U.S. Navy to not return the Stennis to the Gulf.

 

Following Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's speech last month that warned of the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren lodged a formal diplomatic protest. The White House has assured Israel that it had its own "red lines" that would trigger U.S. military action, but it has been unable to secure a promise from Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel would not attack Iran without U.S. permission. In a subsequent interview, Secretary Panetta  stated that he believed Iran will have a nuclear weapon in less than a year (though his aides subsequently walked back the assessment), than a nuclear Iran was "unacceptable", and that "if they (Iran) proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it." This follows recent remarks by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak that Iran's nuclear weapons program was nine months away from a "zone of immunity" when it could no longer be stopped.

 

The IDF has created a new military command, the Strategic Depth Command, which is being referred to in Israel as the "Iran Command". The Strategic Depth Command is commando-heavy, overseeing special forces from Sayeret Matkal, Shaldag, and Flotilla 13. The establishment mirrors the U.S. Special Operations Command and will be primarily responsible for overseeing covert operations in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

 

Iran is investing $1 billion in offensive and defense cyberwarfare capabilities in response to the damage its nuclear program suffered from the Stuxnet and Duqu viruses.

Gulf Watch

 

The last American soldier left Iraq-outside of a minimal force designed to protect the American embassy and consulates. Similarly, NATO ended its training mission of Iraqi security forces after the inability to agree on the immunity status of its troops. Since the full military withdrawal, Iraq has suffered a series of high-casualty, coordinated bombings. Iran's top military commander quickly announced that it was ready "to establish, boost and expand all types of military, defense and security cooperation with the friendly and brotherly nation of Iraq".

 

The Obama Administration has embarked on a massive, decade-long $123 billion plan to arm Persian Gulf countries. It recently announced a $29.4 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia. The package, part of the $60 billion agreement announced in October 2010, includes 84 F-15 fighter aircraft, which would more than double its' current fleet, upgrades to its current 70 F-15 aircraft, as well as various spare parts and logistics materiel. In addition to highlighting its' positive impact on the American economy, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro added that "this sale will send a strong message to countries in the region that the United States is committed to stability in the Gulf and broader Middle East. It will enhance Saudi Arabia's ability to deter and defend against external threats to its sovereignty. It will advance interoperability between the air forces of our two countries through joint training and exercises." Aircraft delivery is not expected until 2015 at the earliest.

 

In a related development, the Obama Administration also announced a $3.48 billion sale of missiles to the U.A.E. The deal includes 96 missiles and supporting technology, most importantly the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-ballistic missile weapon system. Initially proposed in 2008, the sale represents the first foreign sale of the THAAD system and is not expected to be fully operational until at least 2016. Similarly, recent sales to Iraq have totaled $11 billion, despite concerns both in Washington and from Sunni and Kurdish leaders over Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's consolidation of power and ties to Iran.

Technology

 

The IDF reported that Iron Dome had a 75% successful missile interception rate, an improvement over its initial performance following the correction of a radar problem. The IDF Home Front Command recently tested an early warning text message alert system that would provide real time warnings of incoming missiles to local residents.

 

The IDF announced that one of its three Dolphin-class submarines had been undergoing extensive renovations over the last two years and had been out of service. The servicing was kept a secret in order to prevent enemies from knowing it was out of commission. Israel's submarines are its most expensive military platforms. The renovation is expected to be completed shortly.

 

The IDF has approved a plan to improve communication in all ground forces by 2014. The new, lighter portable transceiver 710 will be installed in all infantry units will allow the units to encrypt information in the field and will connect to control systems.

 

Developed by Rafael and now being implemented by the IDF, the "Trophy System" is an advanced active armor-defense system to defend Merkava tanks from anti-tank missiles. The system creates a protective dome that detects, tracks, and then neutralizes anti-tank threats.

Turkey Watch

 

Israel canceled a $140 million defense contract with Turkey, originally signed three years ago, out of fear that the Elbit System-made aerial surveillance systems might fall into Iranian hands. As reported in November's Security Digest, Turkey is close to finishing and will launch in the next two years the Gokturk satellite, which will be capable of taking high resolution photos of Israeli territory that our currently blurred by Israeli and American military satellites. The Gokturk project will severely enhance Turkey's aerial reconnaissance capabilities and even permit it to sell the images to other countries, such as Iran.

 

On a more constructive note, the IAF and the Turkish Air Force reestablished a coordination mechanism that works to prevent misunderstandings and accidents over the Mediterranean, which Turkey had suspended in September.

 

Turkey announced that it would buy a first order of two F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, despite its cost overruns and delays. Turkey will begin the reception of the aircraft in 2015. Additionally, Turkey stated that it selected U.S. firm Bell Textron to produce 100 light helicopters for its police force at a cost estimated to be in the range of $100 million.

Egypt Watch

 

The IDF has erected a virtual "electronic fence" in the Red Sea as part of its efforts to secure its southern border due to the massive increase in security threats coming from the ungoverned Sinai Peninsula. By adding a significant number of electronic sensors along the coast, the Israeli navy can track objects as small as Coke cans floating in the Red Sea. Israel's planned 240km fence along the Egyptian border is currently 40% complete.

 

Additionally, reports surfaced that Israeli Apache helicopters had landed on an island off the Sudanese coast. There have been several reports of Israeli airstrikes in Sudan over the last three years, as Israel attempts to prevent the smuggling of weapons into the Gaza strip by Hamas. Passenger planes landing in Eilat have recently changed their landing approach due to the threat of MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems) emanating from the Sinai. Over the past year, the security situation in the Sinai has seen a massive deterioration due to the fall of the Mubarak and Qaddafi regimes.

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that once the Egyptian border fence is complete, Israel will begin construction of a similar barrier along its Jordanian border. In 2011, Israel faced a record number of illegal migrants, mostly from East Africa, seeking better living and economic conditions. Jerusalem is concerned that once the Egyptian barrier is complete, the migrants might seek alternative paths of entry, either by sea or through Jordan.