Kwik*POP and MY TRADES ROOM
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Greetings,
Initiating a trade ( taking a market position) is only half of the equation. You must also know when it's time to offset your trade in order to realize the gain. In poker parlance you need to Know when to hold em' and know when to fold em'. In other words you need to understand when the odds of success have diminished to a point that there is now a risk of losing all of your hard earned gains.
Trading is a combination of 'art' and science. The artsy component is having an intuitive sense of when the market and momentum will reverse direction. Some people just know when things will change. I despise those people! The other 99% of retail traders, working stiffs like me, lack that 'artsy' intuition. I need something blunt to warn me of a change. A slap in the face, or an overt warning flag that says "Watch Out".
Our best Kwik*POP indicator for targeting serious price reversals is KPVS. VS stands for Volume Surge.
KPVS does not look at price. It's totally pegged to volume, since volume needs to support price action for a sustained move up or down. It analyzes the changes in the ratio's between up volume and down volume. It shows us whether the buyers or sellers are in control of the market.
At certain points in time there is an EXTREME flurry of buying or selling activity. A VOLUME SURGE.
Whenever we get a short term volume surge the market typically retreats in the opposite direction shortly after the VOLUME SURGE. The price reversal following a VOLUME SURGE can be shallow at times and other times it can be significant, leading to a trend change intra-day. KPVS identifies extreme spikes in volume, therefore, KPVS can be used as a very reliable OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD indicator.
Since we don't know whether the ensuing price reversal after a significant VOLUME SURGE will be shallow or extreme we simply use the VOLUME SURGE as a signal to TAKE PROFITS. So let's examine the patterns on a VOLUME SURGE leading to a price reversal. We'll examine a short trade off a LOWER HIGH TWO DOWN SELL SIGNAL. Study the chart below for a moment. KPVS is the oscillator in the bottom sub graph underneath the price bars.
Whenever KPVS goes well below that thick yellow line and then turns back up AND TURNS YELLOW ...WE ARE ON HIGH ALERT. After that sequence ... if the candlesticks TURN YELLOW we cut bait IMMEDIATELY! That is a TAKE PROFIT SIGNAL. We demonstrate this in our training sessions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday from 11:30 To 12:45 PM in our HotComm chat room. PLEASE ATTEND THESE SESSIONS for many valuable trading tips using Kwik*POP.
NOTICE: WE WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY 01/18/10 IN OBSERVANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY.
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Below, is a recap of what took place in our MY TRADES CHAT ROOM for this week. (www.mytradesroom.com)
Weekly Market Recap: (from Harry, the Flight Instructor in MY TRADES ROOM )
For the last several weeks and months, the emini S&P500 Equity Index Futures (ES) market has been experiencing narrow range days, relatively low trading volume and slow paced price action. On Wednesday and Friday of this week, market conditions changed to greater price volatility, wider ranges, higher volume and faster paced. Setups come much quicker, continuation entries and countermove momentum reversal prints can and does move 3 to 5 ticks very quickly away from ideal entry price. Traders may experience more than their 1 tick slippage or missing the setup, entry and a profitable move. Once in a position, the increased volatility may prematurely trigger tight stops or indicator based exits.
The wider ranges, faster paced price action and increased volatility provides increased profit opportunities as well as execution challenges. As the market characteristics change, MY TRADES ROOM adapts to take advantage of fast-paced market in its "Live Trade Alerts Room" with real time updates. We help to identify potential profit setup opportunities with timely Voice "Heads Up" Alert and when setups print, comment on market conditions and indicator alignment leading to setups and entries so members can make trading decisions for themselves. Once the setup triggers, we provide real time guidelines for managing risk and capturing profits with trailing stops, target(s), indicator and price action based exits. The Voice Guidelines consider current market conditions to provide a range of tight to wider stops, alternative targets and profit-taking exits to accommodate various trader profiles, risk tolerance and comfort level.
MY TRADES ROOM schedules Q & A Sessions every Tuesday at 4pm Eastern for all subscribers. Several training sessions are held periodically to specifically address MY TRADES ROOM trading approaches for current market conditions. There are several enhancements for MY TRADES ROOM in the works to provide greater benefits.
MY TRADES ROOM provides a totally focused environment for members to build their execution skills using a realistic Trading Simulator in Live Markets until consistent profitability is achieved and help others to make their own decisions in their own speculative futures accounts. Moderator Voice Commentary and member text posts are 100% focused on the current Live Market setups and trade position management. Members benefit from "Total Focus" on timely recognition of opportunities, execution and trade management without distractions of any extraneous text post or rambling Voice Commentary.
Monday-January 11th
Trading Range 09:30 to 11:00: 7.50 points
Trade Alert #1: ConterMove Short Entry 1145.25@09:32/34
3t 2c +6tics = +6tic; Runner Exit at 1143.75@09:45 +6tics 1c:
Total: +12tics or +$ 150.00 (5c $ 225)
Trade Alert #2: A PivotLow and a PivotLowerHigh@10:05 printed within a couple of bars, too fast for a Timely Voice Alert in the room...passed - the setup was profitable
Trade Alerts Summary: Mon Jan 11th
Trade Alert#1: +12tics + $150.00
Morning Total: +12 tics + $ 150.00
(3 cts EntrySize, 2c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
Morning Total: $ 225.00
( 5 cts EntrySize, 4c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
1 Win 0 Loss
Tuesday-January 12th
Trading Range 09:30 to 11:00: 5.25 points
Trade Alert #1: CounterMove Long E 1135.70@09:35
3t 2c = +6tics, Runner Exit 0t 1c = +0tics
Total: +6tics or $ 75.00.
Trade Alert#2: LHPivot ShortE 1134.75 at 09:41
3t 2c = +6tics RunnerExit +0t 1c =+ 0tics,
Total: +6tics or + $ 75.00
Trade Alert #3: EqLowPivot Long E 1135.00@09:48
3t 2c = +6tics, Runner Exit 3t 1c = +3tics
Total: +9tics or $ 112.50
Trade Alert #4: CounterMove Short E 1135.75@10:15
3t 2c = +6tics, Runner Exit -2t 1c = +4tics
Total: +4tics or $ 50.00.
Trade Alert#5: HLPivot LongE 1137.25 at 10:28
-2t 3c = -6tics LOSS
Total: - 6tics or - $ 75.00 LOSS
Trade Alert#6: HLPivot LongE 1137.25 at 10:48
-2t 3c = -6tics LOSS
Total: - 6tics or - $ 75.00 LOSS
Trade Alert#7: LHPivot ShortE 1136.50 at 11:02
3t 2c = +6tics RunnerExit +0t 1c =+ 0tics,
Total: +6tics or + $ 75.00
Trade Alerts Summary: Tues Jan 12th
Trade Alert #1: + 6tics + $ 75.00
Trade Alert#2: + 6tics + $ 75.00
Trade Alert #3: + 9tics + $ 112.50
Trade Alert#4: + 4tics + $ 50.00
Trade Alert #5: - 6tics - $ 75.00 LOSS
Trade Alert#6: - 6tics - $ 75.00 LOSS
Trade Alert#7: + 6tics + $ 75.00
Morning Total: +19tics + $ 237.50
(3 cts EntrySize, 2c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
Morning Total: $ 487.50
( 5 cts EntrySize, 4c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
5 Win 2 Loss!
Wednesday-January 13th
Trading Range 09:30 to 11:30: 7.50 points
Trade Alert #1: None
Market Conditions: Narrow Ranges, Lower Volume & Limited Follow-through of setups.
Prudent to adhere to Trading Plan setups with confirming Kwik*POP indicators. Setups today were not aligned or confirmed with Kwik*POP indicators, passed on the entries.
With higher intraday (morning) volatility, wider ranges and different market conditions, Trade Setups do not have to be confirmed with indicator alignment.
Trade Alert Summary: Wed Jan 13th
Morning Total + 0 tics $ 000.00
0 Win 0 Loss
Thursday-January 14th
Trading Range 09:30 to 11:30: 6.00 points
Trade Alert #1: CounterMove Long E 1040.25 at 09:34
3t 2c = +6tics, RunnerExit + 0t 1c = +0 tics
Total + 6 tics or $ 75.00.
Trade Alert #2: Breakout LongE 1142.00 at 09:46
Business Inventory Report at 10:00 Alerted for those that did not want to be in a position through an economic report release. as several posted in the room , exits varied from -3 tics to + 2 tics.
3t 2c = + 6 tics RunnerExit: 7t 1c =+ 7 tics,
Total + 13 tics or $ 162.50
Trade Alert #3: CounterMove ShortE 1144.00 at 10:41
3t 2c = + 6tics RunnerExit: 12t 1c =+ 12 tics,
Total + 18 tics or $ 225.00
Trade Alerts Summary Jan 14th:
Live Trading Alerts EntrySize 3cts, 2 c exit at 3 tics, 1 c runner
Trade Alert #1: + 6 tics $ 75.00
Trade Alert #2: + 13 tics $ 162.50
Trade Alert #3: + 18 tics $ 225.00
Morning Total: + 37 tics +$ 462.50
(3 cts EntrySize, 2c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
Morning Total: $ 662.50
( 5 cts EntrySize, 4c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
3 Win 0 Loss!
Friday-January 15th
Trading Range 09:30 to 11:30: 13.00 points
Trade Alert #1: LH Pivot Short E 1042.00@09:36
3t 2c= +6 tics, RunnerExit + 0 t 1c = 0 tics
Total + 6 tics or + $ 75.00
Trade Alert#2, #3 & #4:
ContinuationEntries Short -During Live market, Price Bars moved very fast 4 to 5 tics away from Ideal Entry Price for Timely Voice Alert - forced to pass on those profitable Entry Setups
Trade Alerts Summary: Fri Jan 15th:
Trade Alert #1: + 6 tics + $ 75.00
Morning Total: + 6 tics + $ 75.00
(3 cts EntrySize, 2c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
Morning Total: $ 150.00
( 5 cts EntrySize, 4c at 3tics, 1 c Runner)
1 Win 0 Loss!
Mytrades Week Summary January 11- 15, 2010
Monday: Range: 7.50, 1 Win 0 Loss
3c Totals:, + 12tics, + $ 150.00
5c Totals: + $ 225.00
Tuesday: Range: 5.25, 5 Win 2 Loss
3c Totals: +19 tics + $ 237.50
5c Totals: + $ 487.50
Wednesday: Range: 7.50, 0 Win 0 Loss
Totals: + 0 tics + $ 000.00
Thursday: Range: 6.00, 3 Win 0 Loss
3c Totals: + 37 tics + $ 462.50
5c Totals: + $ 662.50
Friday: Range: 13.00, 1 Win 0 Loss
3c Totals: + 6 tics + $ 75.00
5c Totals: + $ 187.50
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Trades: 12 Total 10 Win 2 Loss
Contracts: 36 contracts
Total Tics: + 74 tics
PnL: + $ 925.00 3c. + $ 1,562.50 5c
AverageTrade: $ 77.00 3c, $ 130.00 5c
Average/day: $ 231($185), $ 390($312) 4day(5day)
4 daysAvg-Wednesday, No Trades (Avg for 5 days)
Average Morning Range: 7.8 points
THE
COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION. ( C.F.T.C.) This brief statement does not
disclose all of the risks and other significant aspects of trading in futures
and options. In light of the risks, you should undertake such transactions only
if you understand the nature of the contracts ( and contractual relationships )
into which you are entering and the extent of your exposure to risk.
Trading in
futures and options is not suitable for many members of the public. You should
carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your
experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances.
Some of the examples used are hypothetical.
Hypothetical trading results have
many inherent limitations and may not reflect actual results since they are done
with the benefit of hindsight and do not accurately reflect market conditions
and the traders emotional level while under the stress of trading. No
representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve
profits or losses similar to those shown.
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