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News Update: 18th June 2012
Greetings!

Please find enclosed our weekly news summary. Please feel free to pass this to anyone who could benefit from it.  
Energy Investment

  

Government Sets Out Next Steps for Green Deal

 

The Government ( on Tuesday) set out secondary legislation that will give industry the green light to bring the Green Deal energy efficiency market into operation, alongside measures to strengthen consumer protection, reduce industry burdens, and implement the Energy Company Obligation (ECO). DECC, 12th June.

 

Who's Funding The Green Energy Revolution?

 

Money invested in renewable energy reached new heights last year, topping $257 bn. So is the world finally going green? The figures come from The Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2012 report, a UN Environment Program backed study that has tracked the finance flowing into green energy across the world since 2004. It found that renewables accounted for 44% of all new energy generation capacity added last year, up from 34% in 2010 and just 10.3% back in 2004. The source for most of this finance came from the private sector. ..While Europe attracts most of the investment, the renewable energy sectors of emerging economies such as India and China have been given the biggest boost. CNN, 12th June.

 

Offshore Wind Industry to Slash Costs by Over 30% in Next Seven Years

 

(The) Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force Report set out key actions for industry and Government to cut the cost of generating electricity in the sector by over 30% to £100/MWh by 2020. ....The Crown Estate also concludes that reaching £100/ MWh is achievable within the next seven years. DECC, 13th June.

   

www.globalenergyadvisory.com    

Gas 

 

Gas to Backup RES Is "Good News for Turbine Manufacturers But Bad News for Investor" - IEA

 

Gas is the "ideal backup" fuel for renewable energy sources, key note speakers at PowerGen2012 agreed..."This is good news if you are building gas turbines because the capacity is needed. But this is not good news if you are investing in gas-fired plants as your return in investment is extremely unpredictable," said Laszlo Varro, Head of Gas, Coal and Power Market, Division, IEA. Gas to Power Journal, 14th June.

 

Chesapeake Energy to Sell Midstream Assets for $4 Bn

 

Chesapeake Energy Corp. plans to sell midstream assets totalling more than $4 bn in cash, as the embattled natural-gas company struggles against mounting debt. The sale of the pipeline and gathering assets to private-equity fund Global Infrastructure Partners will help Chesapeake as it strives to bring its debt level down to $9.5 bn by year-end and make up for a $10 bn cash shortfall. Chesapeake Energy posted long-term debt of $13.1 bn in the first quarter after going on an asset-buying spree and having its cash-flow eroded by plummeting natural gas prices. Rigzone, 8th May.

 

US Natural Gas Exports

 

Industrial lobbying in the US is likely to put a cap on potentially huge natural gas exports, benefiting domestic industries such as petrochemicals and refining, but limiting export profits from gas-hungry Asia and Europe. PO Review, 11th June.

 

UK NBP Q3 Natural Gas Prices to Rise 20% - Goldman

 

Goldman Sachs bucked the trend of bearish natural gas price outlooks ...by issuing a recommendation to buy UK gas for delivery next quarter, saying it expected prices to rise by 20 % from current levels. Despite shedding over 25 % since August 2011, analysts expect British gas for third-quarter delivery to drop further below its current 56 p/therm price level as faltering economic growth curbs energy consumption. But Goldman Sachs argues prices will rebound during the summer in order to lure supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) away from Asia, the world's most expensive market for the fuel. "We expect (third quarter 2012) UK prices to increase by more than 14p/therm" tempting Atlantic Basin LNG suppliers to divert cargoes back to Europe and help refill depleted underground stockpiles before the winter. Reuters, 12th June.

 

Africa Gas Find May Fire India's Energy Security

 

Natural gas reserves in Mozambique's oil-rich Rovuma Basin, where Indian companies hold stakes, are expected to rise dramatically with a giant new discovery, catapulting the African nation to the league of the world's top gas exporters and boosting India's energy security. Texas-based Anadarko Petroleum, the operator of the Rovuma Offshore Area 1 in southern Africa, is expected to shortly announce a significant upgrade in estimated reserves. ....The new discovery would make the basin's reserves 20 times the size of India's KG-D6 and make Mozambique a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This can sharply raise supplies and calm LNG prices at a time US gas prices have crashed after supplies surged with shale gas. Rigzone, 12th June,

 

www.globalenergyadvisory.com

Oil  

 

Iran Feels Sanctions Pain as Oil Income Slumps

 

Iran's state finances have come under unprecedented pressure and the resilience of ordinary people is being tested by soaring inflation as oil income plummets due to tightening Western sanctions and sharply falling oil prices. Tough financial measures imposed by Washington and Brussels have made it ever more difficult to pay for and ship oil from Iran. Its oil output has sunk to the lowest in 20 years, cutting revenue that is vital to fund a sprawling state apparatus. Already down by more than a quarter, or about 600,000 barrels per day, from rates of 2.2 mn bpd last year, shipments of crude oil from Iran are expected to drop further when a European Union oil embargo takes effect on July 1. Tehran is already estimated to have lost more than $10 bn in oil revenues this year. Reuters, 10th June.

 

US Oil Production

 

The EIA announced on Friday that US oil production is now above 6.2 mn b/d, the highest since 1998, largely due to increased production of "tight" oil from North Dakota and Texas. This announcement triggered off a round of optimistic press stories that the US is on its way to energy independence. Lost in the hype, however, is any appreciation that tight oil from very expensive to drill tight oil wells declines so rapidly that they must be re-drilled frequently to maintain production. The recent drop in crude prices is not helping the economics of tight oil and many of the less productive wells may be losing money. PO Review, 11th June.

 

The Iranian Nuclear Talks

 

The situation took a turn for the worse last week, when negotiations between Tehran and the IAEA broke down over details of the inspections of suspect Iranian nuclear weapons sites. The new hard-line position from Tehran, which includes vows to never give up nuclear enrichment, suggests the Iranians expect to gain little from the next round of talks due to begin in Moscow on 18 June and are willing to let the increased EU sanctions go into effect on July 1st. The selling price of oil coupled with cuts in Iranian oil imports by Tehran's top customers suggests that oil revenues will fall by roughly 40 % this year. Budget and subsidy cuts that fall most heavily on Iranian consumers are endemic. ..The situation is complicated by the Israelis, who talk about bombing Iranian nuclear sites and possibly dragging the US into an unwanted war, and the situation in Syria which continues to deteriorate daily. Washington continues to send a stream of officials to Israel to assure the government that the western position on Iran's nuclear weapons will ultimately prevail and that there is no call for precipitous action. PO Review, 11th June.

 

Australia's AWE Abandons Atlas-1 Well

 

Australia's AWE reported Tuesday that it plans to plug and abandon its Atlas-1 exploration well - located offshore east Java Basin, Indonesia - due to a high percentage of CO2. Rigzone, 12th June.

 

Crude Ends Near Flat Ahead of Greek Vote

 

U.S. crude futures ended nearly flat (on Friday), as hopes of further central bank stimulus couldn't excite traders ahead of a pivotal election in Greece. Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled 12 cents higher at $84.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange for August delivery traded 27 cents lower at $97.61 a barrel....Oil traders are concerned about the economic fallout that could ensue if the country leaves the currency union. Rigzone, 15th June.

 

www.globalenergyadvisory.com

Nuclear

   

Vattenfall vs. Germany

 

Vattenfall has filed a case against Germany with an international arbitration service one year after the country tore up a carefully negotiated nuclear policy. The filing lists Vattenfall versus Germany in the subject area of nuclear power. It rests with the autonomous International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), which was designed in 1965 by the World Bank and established by a convention now signed by 143 countries. The move marks a new high in efforts by the nuclear utilities that suffered losses from the German government's post-Fukushima actions, which included ordering eight power units to close immediately and limiting the operating lives of the remaining nine. World Nuclear News, 8th June.

 

San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant

 

Southern California utility officials are warning that blackouts are possible this summer as a result of the sidelined San Onofre nuclear power plant. The damaged plant is likely to remain inoperative until at least the end of August while investigators probe excessive wear in tubing that carries radioactive water. PO Review, 11th June.

 

Oi: Restart Our Reactor

 

The local government has authorised the restart of the two reactors at the Oi nuclear plant, though such a restart would be conditional on the approval of Fukui prefecture, which is by no means certain. All of Japan's nuclear reactors are currently idle. TUNSE/The Chemical Engineer 1st June.

 

'World's Biggest Float' To Kick-Start Explosion in Nuclear Construction

 

China's biggest nuclear energy firm, China National Nuclear Power, has given the go-ahead for what could be the world's biggest flotation, the proceeds to fund the USD27 bn cost of five new nuclear reactors. China has ambitious plans to build 100 new reactors over 20 years, and is racing ahead with its programme. This contrasts with developments in Western nations, including Britain, where E.ON and RWE recently pulled out of a new build project; while fears are growing that EDF Energy will scale back or cancel its UK new build plans. TUNSE/The Times, 7th June.

 

Funding Increased For Yucca Mountain Review

 

An additional $10 mn in funding has been approved for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to complete its review of the licence application for the Yucca Mountain repository. Last year, the NRC shelved the review after funding was slashed. World Nuclear News, 8th June.

 

Rosatom Signs International Deals

 

Nigeria signed a cooperation accord with Russia towards the construction of its first nuclear power plant.....at the AtomExpo event in Moscow. Bangladesh and South Africa also agreed to extend their nuclear cooperation with Russia. World Nuclear News, 12th June.

 

American Centrifuge Program

 

USEC and the US Department of Energy (DoE) have signed a raft of new agreements, completely reorganizing the American Centrifuge program. The agreements define the scope, funding and technical goals for the research, development and demonstration program. The DoE is to provide a total of $280 mn towards the program, while USEC will provide $70 mn. The program will support building, installing, operating and testing commercial plant support systems and a 120-machine cascade that would be incorporated in the full commercial American Centrifuge Plant (ACP) in Piketon, Ohio, which is planned to operate 96 identical cascades. World Nuclear News, 14th June.

 

www.globalenergyadvisory.com   

 
Renewable Investment

 

Vestas CEO Sees US Market Down 80% In 2013

 

The head of Vestas, said...that the U.S. wind turbine market is likely to fall by 80% next year because of the expected expiry of an important tax credit. The U.S. production tax credit (PTC) for renewable energy is due to finish at the end of 2012, and, in an election year, it is widely believed that Congress will not pass legislation to renew it before the expiry. Reuters, 11th June.

 

China Approves 5.6GW Offshore Programme for North East

 

Northern China's Hebei province will construct 5.6GW of offshore wind power projects, according to the Hebei provincial development and reform committee. The committee says that National Energy Bureau (NEB) has approved the offshore demonstration wind projects, which are separated into 4.3GW in Tangshan city and 1.3GW in Cangzhou city. Windpower Monthly, 12th June.

 

Chinese Firm Develops 75-Metre Blade

 

Zhongfu Lianzhong, a leading Chinese wind blade producer based in east China's Lianyungang city, is developing 75-metre wind blades and expecting to complete the development by the end of this year. (The blades) will be used in 6MW offshore turbines. In October last year, Zhongfu Lianzhong produced a 62-metre blade for 6MW turbines. It is testing the blades in simulated severe storms in its test center. Windpower Monthly, 12th June.

 

B of A Targets $50 Bn for Energy Projects

 

Bank of America Corp, which has faced criticism for dealings with coal companies in recent years ...set a new 10-year, $50 bn goal to provide loans and other financing for environmentally friendly energy projects. The second-largest U.S. bank announced the initiative as it nears the early completion of a 10-year, $20 bn goal set in 2007. Reuters, 11th June.

 

Walney Commissioned

DONG Energyhas announced that its Walney offshore wind farm has now been completed. The project, a JV between DONG and SSE, and 25% owned by Danish fund OPW, was completed in a record time of five months and 13 days. (367MW development). www.awordaboutwind.com, 15th June.

 

www.globalenergyadvisory.com   

 
 
Coal 

 

July ARA Bid at $83/T, Down $3 But No Trades Reported

 

European prompt physical coal prices dropped by around $1/tonne for a second day running, touching the two-year low of $85 reached in May, on expectations for more delays and price renegotiations by Chinese buyers in coming weeks. Reuters, 8th June.

 

Alpha Natural Resources to Reduce Coal Production from Kentucky Mines

 

Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. plans to curtail coal mining operations in its northern and southern Kentucky business units as continued market pressures and new regulations on coal-fired power plants make production from certain mines in those areas uneconomic. Market Watch, 8th June.

 

Australia Coal Magnate Bids for Whitehaven Coal

 

Australian coal-industry magnate Nathan Tinkler's tentative bid for Whitehaven Coal Ltd. has been rejected by the miner as incomplete and highly conditional. Whitehaven in a statement said it received a nonbinding proposal to take the company private late the previous day, adding there is a possibility of a revised offer. Analysts suggest Mr. Tinkler may have to pay a premium of more than 30% to secure control of Whitehaven, which has a market value of about 3.9 bn Australian dollars (US$3.9 bn). Market Watch, 13th June.

 

 www.globalenergyadvisory.com    

Energy Trading & Market Dynamics

 

Investors Warn BP of Takeover Risk

 

BP is at risk of becoming a takeover target if it presses ahead with a sale of its £19.5bn stake in Russian joint venture TNK-BP and hands cash back to investors, shareholders have warned. TUNSE/The Daily Telegraph 4th June.

 

UK Gas Prices Rise on Short System, Higher Oil

 

British prompt gas prices rose on Monday (11th June) as the system was almost 15 mn cubic metres (mcm) undersupplied and forward prices were lifted on the back of Brent crude prices rising back above $100 per barrel. Gas prices for delivery next day were trading at 55.90 p/therm at 0945 BST (0845 GMT), up 0.95 pence from Friday morning, and prices for within-day delivery were up 0.75 pence to 55.85 p/therm. Analysts said that the rises were the result of an undersupplied market and rising consumption expected this week. Reuters, 11th June.

 

Flows to UK Down After Maintenance in Germany

 

Norwegian gas exports to Britain were down on Monday morning as flows were being redirected to Germany after maintenance at Emden. Total Norwegian flows to Europe were down to 267 mn cubic meters (mcm) per day on Monday morning, from daily average of 274 mcm/d on Friday. Reuters, 11th June.

 

EU May Soften Draft Energy Savings Law, Drop CO2 Option

 

The European Union may soften a planned energy efficiency law and drop references in that legislation to withdrawing permits from the bloc's carbon market, according to EU officials. The commission (wanted) to ensure that member states cut their primary energy consumption by 20 % by 2020, enforcing what is currently a non-binding goal. The final legislation will be less stringent because member states are ready to deliver a "significant contribution on energy savings" rather than close the gap between the goal and the current efficiency projections, said an EU official who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential. Bloomberg Business Week, 13th June.

 

www.globalenergyadvisory.com 

Our news update comments are provided by our Advisory CEO, Aily Armour-Biggs, if you want to talk to her then contact her on +44 207 692 0888 or aily@globalenergyadvisory.com.

 
Sincerely,
 

Anthony Francis
Global Energy Advisory