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News Update: 12th March 2012 |
Greetings!
Please find enclosed a copy of our weekly news summary. Please feel free to pass this to anyone who could benefit from it.
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Energy Investment | |
The Green Deal
The UK's energy minister said his "Green Deal" plan for business would be so radical it would be hated by some. Ed Davey told the Scottish Lib Dem conference in Inverness he would announce details of the project soon. He said he was "giving notice" to businesses and local authorities to get serious about saving energy and saving people money. "Our claim is that we will be the first government in history to embed energy efficiency across our whole energy policy. " (We are) the first government to seek to make reducing energy demand as important as how we increase supply". BBC Scotland News, 4th March. Global Energy Advisory comment: We have also structured Prisim as a way of funding energy efficiency at scale. http://www.globalenergyadvisory.com/index.php/our-products/prisim-finance
Blown Away
A KPMG report claiming that Britain could meet its emissions reduction targets without recourse to costly wind and solar power, and at a saving of £34bn, was buried. The report said gas and nuclear power plants could replace coal-fired plants and solar and wind-power and achieve the same reduction in emissions. The Chancellor's statement at the Conservative conference said "We're not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business" was the first indication of a cooling toward the green agenda in government. A survey last year by British Gas asked if people would be willing to pay another £400 a year to ensure the lights stayed on - with only 1% admitting a willingness to do so. TUNSE/The Sunday Times, 4th March.
Explorers on Hunt for British Shale Gas
Coal bed methane(CBM) and shale gas explorers aim to demonstrate Britain's potential this year, with The British Geological Survey estimating 5,29tn cubic.ft of probable shale reserves alone. More wells are being drilled, while the year has already seen a flurry of corporate activity, including the takeover by Australia's CBM firm Dart Energy of Scottish firm Composite Energy. TUNSE/Press and Journal (Energy), 5th March.
RWE
Germany's abrupt change in nuclear policy has put a dent of €1.3bn ($1.7bn) in RWE's results for FY2011. It also boosted power prices and raised carbon dioxide emissions, the company said in its annual report to shareholders. World Nuclear News, 6th March.
RWE Denies UK Arm Npower is up for Sale
German utility giant RWE said its British business RWE Npower was not for sale as the Groups UK energy arm reported a 34% jump in profits to £313mn for 2011. The Telegraph, 7th March.
New Dam Powers Laos' Theun-Hinboun Hydropower Plant
A new dam has allowed the Theun-Hinboun hydropower plant in Borikhamxay province of Laos to generate energy at its full capacity of 220MW. The Nam Gnuang dam releases stored water to bolster energy generation at the Theun-Hinboun plant......Energy generation had dropped by about 15% to 20% in previous years after the Nam Theun 2 dam was built further upstream in Khammuan province in 2008. The plant is now at full capacity again after an expansion project. Asia Power News, 6th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com
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Gas | |
US Production
Natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states in December eased 0.2%, or 0.14 bn cubic feet per day (bncf/d), to 72 bncf/d. The decline is the first since February 2011 and came against record-high output in November. PO Review, 5th March; and then later in the week.....
US Rivals Russia as Worlds Top Gas Producer
Russia retained its spot as the world's #1 gas producer during the past decade until 2009, when a sharp, recession-induced drop in demand for Russian gas, rather than a decline in production capacity, allowed the US to edge into first place. Russian production recovered quickly in 2010, but U.S. shale gas production had been rising since 2006 and it continued to narrow the gap with Russia. By 2010, marketed dry gas production in the US reached 634bcm according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the highest level since a 1973 peak of 641bcm. As a result, the 2010 U.S. marketed gas production was very close to, and probably larger than, Russian marketed production. Rigzone, 6th March.
Western Australia Allows Shale Gas Fracking
Bill Marmion, the Western Australian Environmental Minister has given the nod to fracking of shale gas wells in Western Australia. This follows months of uncertainty for oil and gas companies. The US EIA has placed Australia as the country with the 5th largest shale gas potential in the world. In Western Australia, the focus is on the Perth Basin, as well as potential wells surrounding Perth. One of the reasons why Shale drilling is more accepted than CSG drilling is because in the Eastern states where CSG is being fracked there is farm land which could be affected, whereas the land in the Perth Basin is crown land. The Pipeline, 7th March. Global Energy Advisory comment: With so many LNG developments in Western Australia, then, as we have seen there before, the Western Australian gas price could quickly achieve international levels which a recent Morgan Stanley analysts reports forecasts to be $18 per million British thermal units in the summer 2012 - about double European price.
China's Coal Bed Methane
China's coal-bed methane industry has been touted as an impending driver of domestic production growth since the late 1990s. Yet, some are asking why, almost 15yrs later, the country has failed to reach production levels anywhere near its American and Australian counterparts. Forecasting China's future LNG appetite is a tricky business. Domestic energy companies are reticent, government is guarded, geological and production data is difficult to come by, and people are sometimes imprisoned for collecting it.www/Interfax.com 7th March.
BG to Sell 20% of Curtis LNG
BG is selling a stake in the $15bn Curtis LNG project in Queensland, Australia, one of BG's largest assets. The plant which is expected to start exporting gas in 2014 will be the first in the world to produce gas from coal bed methane, a type of gas found in depleted coal seams..... Analysts say that the firm does not have the financial resources to develop its entire (LNG) portfolio on its own. FT, 8th March.
Polish Shale Gas
Participating at the panel discussion the Lithuanian Energy Minister Arvydas Sekmokas stated that "The Baltic States should become a good market for the supply of Polish shale gas, which could also compete with the gas supplied by "Gasprom". The Minister also touched on the pricing of the shale gas. According to him, "if you consider the prices of shale gas in the USA" then the Polish gas "could compete with the 'Gasprom' gas". It should be reminded that the Lithuanian Government is systematically searching for ways of reducing dependence from the Russian gas. Baltic Review, 9th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com |
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Oil | |
Iran Update
The confrontation may reach a turning point this week when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu meets with President Obama on Monday. Netanyahu is said to be bringing an ultimatum that either the US promises to attack Iran whenever Tehran acquires the capability to build nuclear weapons, or Israel will attack unilaterally this spring. The Israelis believe they have a limited window of opportunity to undertake an effective attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by themselves after which so much of Iran's nuclear program will be moved underground where it would be invulnerable to the Israelis. At that point Israel would have to rely on Washington to stop any Iranian effort to build nuclear weapons. The US currently holds the position that the red line is an Iranian attempt to actually build a nuclear weapon and not just acquire the capability to build one. Last week in speeches and interviews Obama laid out the case that the Israelis should be patient. The US believes the sanctions are beginning to work and that an unprovoked attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would not only swing world opinion to Tehran's side, but would also set off a chain of hostilities in the region which would probably lead to much higher oil prices as the Iranians retaliated.....The US, EU, and UN sanctions seem to be having an effect as more of the workarounds that Tehran has been using to conduct its foreign trade are being closed. With foreign ships reluctant to visit Iranian ports, Tehran has been forced to turn to its own fleet of 26 tankers to deliver some of its crude. As the war drums beat louder, more of Tehran's customers are having second thoughts about their dependence on Iranian crude and are looking for other sources. PO Review, 5th March.
Santos Basin, Brazil
BG Group announced Monday (5th) that a new well test has begun in the area of the BM-S-11 concession in the pre-salt Santos Basin, offshore Brazil. The floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) Cidade de São Vicente was connected to the RJS-647 well, in water depths of 7,260 feet (2,212 meters). The FPSO will operate in the area for approximately 6 months.....The well test is part of BG Group's fast-track development for its interests in the world class pre-salt Santos Basin discoveries and prospects. Rigzone, 5th March.
Ras Tanura Alleged Fire
There was a spot of excitement on Thursday (1st) when a fire near the Saudi's massive oil export centre of Ras Tanura was reported by the Iranian News service, Press-TV, as an attack on a major oil pipeline. This sent oil prices surging with London reaching a high of $128.40/bl, the highest since July 2008. ..The rapid price spike reflects how nervous the markets have become in wake of the ongoing Iranian confrontation and the reduction in spare capacity to produce oil. A similar price spike occurred in February 2006 after the Saudis repelled an attack on the Abqaiq oil processing facility. PO Review, 5th March.
Oil Prices Rise on North Sea Outages
Supply disruptions in the North Sea and strong Asian demand for the crude produced in the region are tightening the physical boosting oil prices. The North Sea is important, not only because it produces 3mn barrels per day- more than Kuwait- but also because it is the home of Brent, the oil benchmark... Output from UK and Norway dropped ~350,000 barrels per day ...The IEA predicted a fall of just 30,000 barrels per day. FT, 6th March.
South Korea Finalises $2bn UAE Oil Deal
South Korea has secured 3 new production blocks in UAE as it faces increasing pressure from the USA to diversify its crude imports from Iran. FT, 6th March.
Keystone Update
TransCanada informed the US Department of State that what had been the Cushing-to-US Gulf Coast portion of Keystone XL will be constructed as a stand-alone Gulf Coast Project, not part of a renewed Presidential Permit process for the Keystone XL pipeline. PO Review, 5th March.
Statoil Leading Race for Anadarko Assets
Norway's state controlled energy group Statoil is in pole position to buy the Brazilian business of US listed explorer Anadarko, for about $3bn, which marks the latest big foray into the South American country. People with knowledge of the talks said Statoil was front runner for the assets, having bettered offers from France's Total and Denmark's Maersk Oil. FT, 7th March.
Stephen King: Oil is the New Greece
Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu discuss next steps regarding Iran, investors are becoming increasingly jittery. At one point late last year, the Brent oil price was around $90 a barrel. Now, even after falling on Tuesday on news that talks with Tehran were to be reopened, it is still well above $120, reflecting both renewed economic optimism and fears over how, precisely, Iran's nuclear ambitions can be contained. FT, 7th March.
End of Week Prices
Brent crude lost 5 cents to $125.39 a barrel by 09.57 GMT. On weekly basis, Brent is set to mark a marginal gain and its 6th weekly gain in seven. US crude was up 33 cents at $106.91 a barrel. Greece said 85.8% of private creditors had accepted its bond swap offer, averting the immediate risk of an uncontrolled default. Oil was supported by data out of top energy consumer China. It showed annual inflation cooled to a 20-month low of 3.2% in February, below its 2012 target of 4%, giving policy maker's room to ease monetary policy to support slowing growth. Reuters, 9th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com |
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Nuclear | |
Work Together on Waste Says Government
Finland's government has requested a "neutral" investigation be carried out to determine whether Posiva's planned high level waste facility can also accommodate waste from Fennovoima's proposed nuclear power plant. If necessary, it is prepared to invoke the force of law to make sure companies cooperate. World Nuclear News, 3rd March.
South Africa Plans More Funding for Nuclear Plants
South Africa plans to allocate more funds towards the construction of nuclear power plants. French utility EDF said earlier in February it would make a joint bid with a Chinese partner when South Africa launches a tender to build several nuclear reactors. TUNSE/Reuters UK, 28th February.
Horizon Power
Horizon Nuclear Power, the nuclear joint venture between E.ON and RWE is about to decide on the reactor technology it will use at its proposed new Wylfa B power station on the Isle of Anglesey in North Wales. Westinghouse, owned by Toshiba, and France's Areva have been battling to win the contract. Horizon aims to build the Wylfa plant by 2020. TUNSE/The Independent, 29th February.
Oldbury Closes
Oldbury nuclear power station near Bristol is to stop generating electricity after 45yrs of operation. TUNSE/BBC (Web), 29th February.
UK Water Shortage Could Lift Electricity Prices
RWE Npower and EDF Energy, whose 2 power plants generate 94% of electricity in east England, face combined costs of nearly £53mn a year if the region's water scarcity issue is not addressed. EDF Energy's Sizewell B nuclear plant would have to pay £1.7mn a year to procure water. TUNSE/Yahoo 1st March.
Decommissioning
A government commissioned report has warned that the £7bn nuclear decommissioning fund will not cover costs unless it is freed from Treasury control and allowed to make commercial investments. TUNSE/The Times, 2nd March.
French Nuclear Closure Would Hurt Germany
A rushed closure of France's oldest nuclear power plant would strain the grid and raise the risk of blackouts, according to industry experts responding to French Socialist candidate Francois Hollande's vow to close the Fessenheim plant. Nuclear operator EDF declined to comment on how the shutdown of Fessenheim might affect supplies. TUNSE/Reuters 2nd March.
Coastal Workers Warned of Terror Threat
People who live on the coast, boaters and fishermen, have been urged to stay alert for terrorist activity along the Scottish coast. The Hunterston and Torness power stations and Grangemouth oil refinery are among potential targets on the coast. TUNSE/The Herald, 3rd March.
First Uranium Sale
First Uranium has announced the sale of its principle South African operating assets to AngloGold Ashanti and Gold One, while Cameco is to secure majority ownership of the Millennium Project in Canada through the purchase of Areva's interest. Toronto-based First Uranium has entered agreements to sell its Mine Waste Solutions (MWS) tailings recovery project to AngloGold Ashanti for £335mn ($532mn) and its Ezulwini gold and uranium mine to Gold One for $70mn. In addition, Gold One has provided First Uranium with a loan facility of up to $10mn. World Nuclear News, 5th March.
NDA Subsidiary Could Operate Customer Trains
Direct Rail Services a subsidiary of Nuclear Decommissioning Agency that operates freight trains, has held talks with Cumbria County Council on taking over the running of passenger services on the coastal branch line between Carnforth and Carlisle. FT, 7th March.
South Korea to Build More Nuclear Power Plants for the UAE
South Korea could wind up building all 8 nuclear power plants for the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A South Korean consortium is currently constructing 4 nuclear power plants for the UAE and is said to have a good chance of building another 4, said sources in the UAE. Asia Power News, 6th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com
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Renwable Investment | |
US Commits To $180mn Offshore Investment
The US government has announced a £180mn investment programme to fund 4 offshore wind energy projects. Announcing the plans, Energy Secretary Stephen Chu confirmed that the money would be made available over a 6 year period, with the first $20mn released in 2012. The programme will be focused on developing new technology and reducing the cost of offshore wind. www.awordaboutwind.com 5th March.
Feed In Tariff Update
(Ofgem showed)....under the FIT scheme from 1 April, 2010.... the significance of photovoltaic installations which make up around 90% of all installed capacity. This is an increase in total capacity from 83% September 2011. Additionally, wind and hydro installations make up 5% and 3% respectively, while the proportion of anaerobic digestion installations has declined to 2% of total capacity (which is 661MW and costs £35, 937, 530.86 in Q4 last year. Ofgem, 5th March.
Chinese Premier Calls for Greater Planning In Chinese Market
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said China will restrain its 'blind' expansion of the wind power industry and improve planning procedures for projects. Last year, China replaced the US to be the world's largest wind-power developer. According to the China Wind Energy Association (CWEA), China had about 18GW wind turbines installed in 2011, taking the overall installed capacity to 65GW. But this rapid development has led to growing pains in the sector with a large number of projects awaiting connection to the grid. Additionally, China's wind turbine manufacturing capacity now far exceeds demand...China has over 100 wind-turbine makers, compared with only 6 in 2004...They have a total capacity to produce about 40GW wind turbines annually. But according to China's current wind-power development plan, China will install only 15GW to 20GW wind turbines each year in the near future. Windpower Monthly, 5th March.
7MW Wind Turbine Gear Box Design
David Brown Gear Systems has been handed a £1.2mn grant from the UK government to design a 7MW gearbox for Samsung's next generation offshore turbine. The money has been awarded under the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Technology Strategy Board's Offshore Wind Component Technologies Innovation scheme, which is worth £5mn. Windpower Offshore, 5th March.
Welsh Wind Power
Massive public opposition to wind farms in Wales has already spawned at least 20 campaign groups and threats of peaceful direct action against plans for 870 turbines in Powys alone. Passions have been inflamed by plans by National Grid for a substation at Abermule which would link several major wind farms in mid-Wales to the grid. Residents of the area are realising that they will end up surrounded by turbines, pylons and transmission cables of plans go ahead. TUNSE/The Guardian, 28th February.
Floating or Flying
The first full-scale demonstration of a floating wind turbine is moored in 200m of water 6 miles off the cost of south-west Norway. It has been generating electricity since 2010, and if it survives the wind and waves it will prove that such floating wind power platforms are feasible. Floating platforms will allow the generation of wind power in deeper waters unsuitable for traditional offshore turbines which are anchored in the seabed. TUNSE/The Guardian, 29th February.
Policy Statement Includes Proposal for Scotland to Develop Emissions Performance Standards Separate from Rest of UK
The Scottish government has issued a rallying call for businesses and local communities to exploit the country's vast renewable energy resource, in a new consultation designed to deliver 100% green electricity by 2020. Scottish energy minister Fergus Ewing launched the draft Electricity Generation Policy Statement (EGPS), setting out plans to build up renewable energy and fossil fuel thermal generation in Scotland's future energy mix. The report is based on a series of key targets, including delivering the equivalent of at least 100% renewable electricity by 2020, with a minimum of 2.5GW of thermal generation progressively fitted with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The report also confirmed nuclear energy would be phased out in Scotland over time, with no new nuclear. Business Green, 5th March. Global Energy Advisory comment: Westminster has jurisdiction over energy issues.
Iberdrola Completes 304MW Project
Iberdrola has completed construction of Ohio's 304MW Blue Creek wind farm in the United States. The project is comprised of 152 Gamesa 2MW G90 turbines, and includes a power purchase agreement with FirstEnergy Solutions for 100MW of output over the next 2 decades. www.awordaboutwind.com, 7th March.
Europe's Wind Energy Market Shrunk Again
Europe's wind energy market shrunk again last year, according to official figures. The report noted while the onshore wind industry was "flagging", the offshore market was still "huge and promising". Global wind power capacity increased by 40.5GW between 2010 and 2011 compared to a 39GW rise between 2009 and 2010, after deduction of decommissioned capacity. By the end of 2011 global installed wind turbine capacity should stand at around 238.5GW. Click Green, 7h March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com
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Coal | |
South Korea Considers US Investment
South Korea's Korea Electric Power Corp and 4 of its thermal power utilities are considering investing in coal assets in the US, in line with a long-term strategy of diversifying the origin of the country's coal imports, industry sources said. The equity investment will provide the South Korean companies with an off-take agreement. A memorandum of understanding for a possible joint venture was signed between the South Korean entities and a US coal miner, one of the sources said. He, however, declined to identify the US Company or the location of the mines which were being considered for the imports. Platts, 5th March.
Japans' Coal Negotiations
Annual negotiations between Japanese utilities and Australian coal producers for the Asian benchmark thermal coal contract starting on April 1 are expected to begin next week when Xstrata's lead negotiator is expected in Japan. The annual contract prices are set by mining major Xstrata Coal and large Japanese utilities including Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Chubu Electric. The annual negotiations often drag on for weeks, beginning with preliminary talks, which have already got going, and include meetings in both Australia and Japan. ...Tohoku Electric is expected to act as lead negotiator. Demand for coal from Japan is likely to recover this year after falling sharply since March last year, when the earthquake and tsunami damaged some coal-fired power plants and infrastructure. Reuters, 5th March.
Huge Mongolian Float Delayed
The public listing of Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, the huge Mongolian coking coal mine that was due to list in London, Hong Kong and Ulan Bator by this spring, has been delayed by at least 6 months because of regulatory hurdles and political deadlock as Mongolia's parliamentary elections approach. FT, 8th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com |
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Energy Trading Dynamics | |
Pipeline Groups Reap Crude Trade Benefits
Pipeline companies... have emerged as some of the most successful crude traders in North America.... Pipelines traditionally make their returns from transporting crude for others. Now some Canadian and US operators are scoring considerable profits by buying and selling their own crude....The opportunity is its greatest in North America, where a growing surfeit of inland crude faces bottlenecks getting into refineries. Pipeline groups which own the infrastructure to move crude to more expensive markets have joined trading houses to exploit their arbitrage opportunity. FT, 5th March.
Gas Groups Tap Derivative Deals for Cash
Companies are increasingly turning to agreements to generate cash to fund drilling and land purchases as low natural gas prices leave the industry facing a cash squeeze this year. Derivative gas contracts purchased by gas producers 9 months or more ago have soared in value as the price of gas has halved. Investment banks are offering to buy those contracts, which can be resold to other gas producers, and in return pay the companies above market value for their gas this year. FT, 5th March. Global Energy Advisory comment: if these contracts are in the money (profitable) then their counterparts are out of the money and could pose a credit risk.
http://www.globalenergyadvisory.com/index.php/our-products/center
Superfast Traders Feel Heat as Bourses Act
...Talk of a major deal: 100,000 Treasuries contracts were traded just after Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, began to speak about the US economy. The volume was such that there was talk of a computer or "fat fingered" dealer was to blame. One theory was that an "algo" run by a so called high frequency trader had onerously fired off orders at ultra high speeds. The trades were not a mistake, but show the fear of high frequency trading...Calls for a financial tax, in Europe, partly aimed at slowing down high frequency trading, have grown louder. FT, 6th March. Global Energy Advisory comment: in the future when the energy markets become very volatile, with periods of high prices then very low prices then protecting your trading book from large swings in profit or loss, will require forensic position management. For that reason our capabilities strategic framework outlines the core competencies of the energy trading firm of the future where trading is even more pressured than it is now a frenetic speed. http://www.globalenergyadvisory.com/index.php/our-products/capabilities-matrix.
Electric Cars
General Motors will idle production of its Chevrolet Volt battery-powered car for 5 weeks beginning this month because of slow sales amid an effort to boost the vehicle's consumer appeal. PO Review, 5th March.
LNG to Asia
British prompt gas prices fell on Monday (5th) as output from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals jumped and revised weather forecasts sapped demand, countering the impact of less frequent seaborne gas imports as Asia snatched more of Europe's share. "With a resurgent Asia, it looks as if the UK, which is facing poor growth prospects, will either have to pay up or see increasingly more LNG diverted to Japan, for example," a trader with a major UK utility said. Qatar's policy of sending gas tankers to higher-paying markets in Asia has heightened the risk of gas shortages at Europe's main hubs, which are more dependent than ever on LNG. Reuters, 5th March.
Carbon Price Support
Environment ministers meeting in Brussels on Friday (9th) are likely to urge the EU's executive to look at practical ways to drive green investment, but to stop short of calling for intervention to prop up carbon permits that have lost much of their value. EU politicians last month voted in favour of withholding permits from the bloc's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), to try to support a market that is too weak to fulfil the goal of encouraging low carbon investment. But for such intervention to happen, the Commission, the EU's executive arm, would have to draw up a proposal. Reuters, 7th March.
Tata Steel Hits at Electricity Prices
Tata Steel, one of the UKs largest electricity users, says UK's green policies are putting it at such a disadvantage to its rivals in Europe that its future operations are likely to be affected... Tata says they are paying 50% more for their electricity in the UK than sites in France, Germany and the Netherlands. FT, 8th March.
www.globalenergyadvisory.com
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Our news update comments are provided by our Advisory CEO, Aily Armour-Biggs, any comments then contact her on aily@globalenergyadvisory.com or +44 207 692 0888.
Sincerely, Anthony Francis Global Energy Advisory |
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