| What's Moving The Market |
 March's employment report shocked markets with its weakness. Non-farm jobs were widely expected to have increased 201K, as reported up just 120K; non-farm private jobs were expected up 224K, as reported +121K. The unemployment rates declined to 8.2% frm 8.3% suggesting more people are not looking for jobs. On Wednesday ADP said private jobs increased 209K. The bond and mortgage markets rallying hard this morning, at 9:00 the 10 yr note yield at 2.08% down 10 basis points frm yesterday's close and mortgage prices +16/32 (.50 bp). Employment data has always been difficult to forecast, usually there is a burst of volatility on the data, today is one major example. If the stock market were trading today the DJIA would open down 150 points based on trading in the futures markets. The Feb jobs originally reported +227K was revised to 240K; Jan jobs originally reported +284K revised to 275K. A smaller than forecast addition of 120,000 jobs last month broke a pattern that was giving U.S. voters a growing sense of security.Article By: Sigma Research and providede by TBWS Rate Alert on 4/06/12 |
| To Ease or Not To Ease |
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The very weak March employment data will increase the idea the Fed may consider another easing; we have held the Fed would not ease again, but if employment continues to be soft the Fed has the evidence it needs to ease again if necessary. Although the odds have increased as a result of the employment data, and somewhat confirms what the Fed has been concerned about that the economic recovery is not on solid footing; another easing may be unnecessary as long as interest rates stay low. With today's sharp drop in rates, and the declines this week, the Fed doesn't have to ease.
Article By: Sigma Research and provided by TBWS Rate Alert on 4/06/12 |
