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Hello and Welcome,
Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter. This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information. Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.
2011 Year To Date (System): +3.00%
2011 Year To Date (Aggressive): +9.00%
2011 Year To Date (Actual): -(2.00)%
2011 S&P: 3.38%
BladeTrader Performance Against S&P: -(5.38)%
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| Market Action
FUTURES - Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): 0
FUTURES - Bi-Weekly Profit Aggressive Strategy: +400
OPTIONS - Liquidation Value: +3000
OPTIONS - Premium Taken In: +9,000.00 (expiry 7/15/11)
DISCRETIONARY (Strategy Testing): 0 | |
A strong rally last week took most of the previous profits, but a subsequent downturn returned us to the black. Though the market has had 5 weeks down, the "down" has been very muted and the 1370 that was breached seemed an anomoly. Regardless, the market is around the 1300 area and is struggling to gain any momentum since this last week's bit of sour news.
We have started the Aggressive strategy which will enter a Short or Long if the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq all have the same directional signal. After Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which came in weak (and after a 4 week spike in continuing claims was this at all unexpected?) the main strategies will be entering a short.
The last time all the strategies were firing a short, it was "short" lived and the markets rallied. Indeed, the bracket traders are winning with their positions as they sell 1340 and buy 1300.
Look for a test of 1280 and a cap of 1305, and if broken look for the 1340 sell as the market struggles with the summer, and awaits 2nd quarter earnings.
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| Commitment of Traders
Bulls-n-Bears | The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market. It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders. Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets). Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers. In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.
Analysis: Lets review the prior COT analysis:
"The market appears to be headed towards a test of 1300 again. Don't look for this to change much in the near term. This type of market really wreaks havoc and trending systems as we have been caught in counter-trending rally after each significant move, most notably on the LONG side as market participants buy the dips (any and all)."
The COT call above played out as expected with a small rally in between on the last day of May. June 1st broke the typical rally on the first day of the month and brought the markets lower before the Friday unemployment report.
Overall the COT electronic has shown a lot of weakness, the the PIT contract showing strength. It has been a difficult trading situation since February 17th when the 2 year rally started showing some signs of difficulty. If not for the Japanese Tsunami, we may actually have had our correction, since the 1240 price was a buying opportunity sending the markets to nearly 1375 (nearly 10% swing) in less than two months. This type of move gave the bulls celebration and shorts got taken to the wood shet (ourselves included).
Overall this market remains difficult but resilient. Look for tests of 1280.
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| June Fund Opening - New Website
Just one last item | |
 The website is coming along. A preview can be seen at www.morningrisk.com where a cup of coffee is waiting for everyone to review the various commodities and our calls for these commodities.
The website is less about Trizen and more about commodities trading, thus the name morning risk. We want to be the one place to go to learn and to get information about commodities trading.
Futures trading (via commodities) offers short term traders an opportunity to get a tax break (by charging only 40% at short term rate the rest at 60%) while exposing portfolios to all sorts of products that can offer diversification of an existing portfolio or outright speculation.
It is my hope that in the year to come, this website expands and grows as we offer more and more services from this site.
Again,.once the website is active, we will start the process of opening accounts which are under each individual's control. I hope everyone can see that though we are underperforming the market year to date, if you take into consideration everything that is going on, we are out performing the market at the moment.
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Sincerely,
Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
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| | BladeTrader Version 3.6 | | Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released. We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages. |
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U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN. |
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