Issue: #1405/7/2011
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.


2011 Year To Date (System):  +2.00%

2011 Year To Date (Aggressive): +7.00%
2011 Year To Date (Actual): -(3.40)%
2011 S&P:  6.56%
BladeTrader Performance Against S&P: -(9.96)%

 

Market Action 
FUTURES - Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): -(800) 
OPTIONS - Liquidation Value:  -(200)
OPTIONS - Premium Taken In:  +9,000.00
DISCRETIONARY (good performance):  (-1500)  

  Everything performed as expected.  The two week period had the market trending higher but the last week saw it shed over 3% at a time when we reset the system (deployed all new software) while we minimized damage to less 0.7%, which is what we try to do for the most part. 

 

It was an interesting March and April, largely because of new contract sizes, testing in live conditions, a new hedging system, and some operational issues which have been resolved; however, the system is up 2% while the S&P is up 6.5%, so in general we are slightly down over the S&P and down by 9% in actual, with 5% coming from operational items. 

 

The market has been incredibly reactive during this earnings season, much more than I expected and as such the discretiony test was down over the last two weeks, though it was a solid test that confirmed the additional software added to handle overnight volatility. These tests are not part of the system, but they are interesting to review.  The test was utilizing a modification of the TRIN, called the TRIzeN and was a very solid test, though it had to be done during the day and over 1 minute intervals, so it got into positions (bad positions) and needed to get out (minimize damage).  It was a great test and performed very well.

 

Look for some consolidation over the next week.  Our current position is a Short Straddle.  We are not entered in the market; however, the aggressive strategy this year has been performing well and is beating the S&P and is currently exhibiting a short position (we don't trade this system live yet).

 

     

Commitment of Traders 
Bulls-n-Bears
The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market.  It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders.  Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets).  Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers.  In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.  
Analysis:  Lets review the prior COT analysis: 
  
"We tested the lows of 1305, and a little lower actually, and are now testing the 1330+ range.  Look for this to continue until some clarity on the FED's "QE2" is discussed possibly later this week by Ben Bernanke.  Additionally, many companies have not guided significantly higher other than the current darlings of Wall Street and economic outlooks have been revised downward.  The economics are relatively "dismal" and while the securities fundamentals have been somewhat "ok" while global issues remain volatile."
 
The market exploded to its yearly high of 1373 and then tumbled to 1325.  We are stuck in a volitle trading range and it has been extremely difficult for trending systems over the last three months.  The COT is showing divergence between PIT contracts and Electronic contracts, with the PIT being somewhat LONG while Electornic (below) being somewhat SHORT.  It makes for very volatile trading.  Look for tests against 1300 and 1350 to continue as QE2 winds down and the earnings season closes out.  Though most companies have been analaysts expectations (which is at this point a given for every company it seems) guidance was showing inflationary concerns.
 

COT
2011 System Results Expectations 
3% per month for next 6 months?

EddieZ After March and April's rough beginnings of some new development and additional features, can the system recover through the rest of 2011?  Absolutely, given that if our options expire and we collect the premium we are instantly back up 9% assuming we recover our 3% losses in the futures market.  Overall the system should be returning 3% per month, and over the next 6 months we can gain 18% closing out the year at roughly 15% plus the options at a conservative 4% for a year end at or near 20%. 

 

If we don't hit this, the goal of the system is still in tact, and that is to match or beat the S&P and to conserve capital in bad times (think 1999, 2008, etc). 

 

Having renewed and deployed a fully capable system, I feel much better having resolved these issues.  We just need to release the aggressive strategy and the multi-market strategy and the system will be fully deployed across the market.  Look for this to occur in 2012.

Sincerely,
 

Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
 
In This Issue
Market Action
COT
2011 System Results
BladeTrader Version 3.6 
Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released.  We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages.
Quick Links
 

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