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Hello and Welcome,
Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter. This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information. Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.
2011 Year To Date: 5.4% 2011 S&P: 3.71% BladeTrader Performance Against S&P: +1.69%
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| Market Action
Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): +$1100. | |
This system was designed to limit downside risk, and sometimes make some money doing so. This just happened to be a week in which we made some money protecting assets (actual P/L is more like -$4,000 in the LONG and +$5100 in the Short). The system was designed to match or beat the market in good times, and minimize damage in the bad. Capital Appreciation while maintaining Capital Preservation is a good motto when thinking about any trading system. Everyone does great in a bull market, its the bear market that really tests a trading system.
Incredible destruction in Libya and Japan was cause for most to take profits, though many days were filled with bargain shoppers and the market gyrated back and forth--it is a difficult time to be in the market. The algorithms held up throughout the sell-off and though the non-farm payrolls was good, most of the upside was "priced in" and there was no real upside to the market even if the numbers came in better than expected (a time to ring the register with high volume).
Overall, the health of corporations seems intact, but the health of the economy seems to be resting on the notion that there are employed individuals, though this number seems to hide the fact that many are either not trying to find work, or are underemployed. The underemployed is cause for concern.
As the week continued, it was filled with elation, and fear. Expect things to continue to ride the emotional highway. We will maintain our hedge until further notice.
NOTE:
The accounts and documents for those that requested to participate are still a little behind as we need to get the Trizen accounts completed (we only have two active strategies running at the moment and need four or five). Response has been great, thanks for all the emails, we are working diligently to get things completed.
THERE WILL BE A CONFERENCE CALL NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON AVAILABILITY (3/22 OR 3/23). YOU MAY BRING YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR TO ASK QUESTIONS. THIS WILL BE AN INFORMATIONAL SESSION ON CURRENT STRATEGIES. LOOK FOR THE DIAL-IN INFORMATION LATER THIS WEEK.
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| Commitment of Traders
Bulls-n-Bears | The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market. It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders. Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets). Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers. In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.
Analysis: Lets review the prior COT analysis:
"We were pretty accurate with the hedge, but really didn't enjoy hedging "early" as the market climbed to 1344 before selling off to 1294 (a 50 point retracement). The COT continues to degrade a LONG and the current system is requiring a hedge. We will be hedged until further notice. "
The market is really diverging with respect to Open Outcry (PIT) and Electronic contracts. The below COT is a very bad signal for the last month or so, but the electronic contract has been somewhat bullish. This has led to some rather difficult trading sessions. The PIT/Combined contracts are calling for an all out short position, while the electronic is nearly there as well but still requiring a hedge. We will be hedged until all signals are firing short or long. The JUNE contract is the current front month contract and is showing some very large swings, though it did shave off a few nearly five points as it rolled into the front-month, discounting the index. Look for 1300 and 1305 to be targets this week, with 1285 on the downside.
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| Marked to Market
No cheating please!! | |
For the last several years this seems to have come into fashion, but I say "why was it ever out of fashion?"
Just for the record, we mark-to-market every day by default, since the CME settles every day. We may have positions open, but we count that as profit or loss on the close of business. Why would anyone do anything different?
Lets say you owned some bonds that you bought for 97 cents on the dollar. The next day, Lehman goes out of business and sells their exact same bonds (which there are not many buyers and sellers in this market) for 10 cents on the dollar. Do you mark your bonds down to 10 cents on the dollar? This is what a lot of banks and other firms decided NOT to do since this would give them incredible losses on their "books." Hiding the losses until they could find a better price.
Just wanted everyone to know that we mark-to-market with every P/L statement.
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Sincerely,
Edward Zaremba Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
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| | BladeTrader Version 3.6 | | Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released. We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages. |
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U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN. |
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