Issue: #1302/12/2010 
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.

Feb 1, 2010 to Date (start) Performance vs. the S&P 500:
 
Return on Initial Capital: +37.10%
S&P Index: +16.61%
 
We are currently above the S&P index by 20.49%
Market Action 
Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): $0

 

The hedging signal was fired and we entered the hedge immediately after the hedge signal (as required); however, the COT and the market in general have been acting in an unusual manner and as such the hedge was left on for the last two weeks.  Needless to say we are underperforming the S&P by 2 percentage points at this juncture, but we are closing out the Year over Year (March 1 will represent 12 full months trading with the first month, February 2010 as a test month) in great shape and with great numbers.  It is quite likely that we will simply close out the books for our YoY performance and get ready to load up with everything we have available and get going on all the instruments we can trade:

 

1)  S&P Mini

2)  Dow Mini

3)  Nasdaq 100 Mini

4)  Eurodollar

5)  2-Year Treasury

6)  10-Year Treasury

7)  Covered Options on Futures

 

These represent a very good portfolio of futures products that should cover a breadth of various market conditions. 

 

 

     

Commitment of Traders 
Bulls-n-Bears
The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market.  It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders.  Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets).  Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers.  In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.  
Analysis:  Lets review the prior COT analysis: 

"Weakness continued throughout the last two weeks as the market is trying to find idrection.  Hedgers are now net LONG (RED) with professionals net LONG (BLUE) with small traders net SHORT (GREEN).  We will know more tuesday, but this market is struggling to find direction.  Look for another attempt at 1300 as we also may test some recent lows along the way.  Volatility can be your friend here, selling after strong rallies and buying on dips."
  
The dips were few and far between, the market is on straight trajectory, but the COT is having some issues.  The COT isn't so much about a pattern but about a shift.  In this case, the shift of Professionals (BLUE) to the short side after a long run of bullishness is cause for worry.  Additionally, the small investor (GREEN) is strongly bullish while the hedger (RED) is net short (a bullish sign, but not when professionals are selling too).
  
Overall, the COT is a leading indicator but the market doesn't always follow, especially with the amount of money flowing from governments into the markets, the COT may in fact be unable to accurately reflect the full amount of new money and government money coming into the stock market.  Even the Stock Trader's Almanac doesn't like this next week, and earnings season is usually good leading up through it and bad after it.  We recommened a hedged portfolio through this week as February is typically weak, and the COT is confirming this. 
  
Additionally, if most professionals see a 15% rise in the S&P by year end, and we are nearing the half-way mark (the S&P is up 5.69%) the COT is telling us that we are on track for a consolidation and or a minor retracement. 

COT
You Just Can't Beat the S&P 
There is no way to beat the market, none. 

EddieZ  I know, I know everyone is making money so easy right now!  Its to the moon with the S&P 500.  "The third year of a presidency is always best."  "We're in a cyclical bull market."  "The FED is pouring money into the markets."  "The ECB is buying bonds when countries can't get good bids."  "The unemployment number is 9% (as if this is great)."  "The world is melting up!"  "If I don't get in I am going to miss the world's largest rally, its DOW 36,000." 

 

I just want to be clear on this.  If you want to own the index, or any 401(k) you are going to get hit with losses not only from your manager (who is going to take upwards of 30% of your profits over a long term) but from the market when it does sell off.  Or, alternatively, you can avoid these large scale issues and keep your money and in bad times either gain or lose very little by using the methods described in this article.

 

I am completely frustrated that millions of American's are forced to pay their 401(k) managers, and other bankers, and the IRS, and everyone else with their hand out, because no one has told them they don't have to. 

 

If you invested 10,000 ten years ago, you have roughly 10,000 (I am not even taking inflation into account).  Only if you were lucky enough to have invested in 1980 would you feel as though you have come out on top.  Yes, I know, there are the few companies that have made 1,000%, but not everyone can be a great stock picker, or have that kind of luck.

 

In the end YOU need to take control of your account and your IRA.  Pensions are going to be eliminated, social security is going to be reduced if not eliminated for most above the poverty level, and you are going to have to work until you're 80 to collect.

 

You have two choices, take control, or give up control.  I prefer taking control!  If I sound upset, its because I am, I have watched the market take money from individuals via fees, I have watched banks destroy our economy, and I am now watching our governments of the world monetize debt and support markets at the expense of our grandchildren. 

 

In 2001, we started Trizen with the idea of creating several products, unfortunately, one of our products was taken from us.  But this second product was meant to take back control and give back the money you have earned and allow you to improve your return, maintain your principal, and have a constant flow of income.  Well, after nearly 13 months of actual trading, analysis by some I consider the best traders on earth, and testing the system through the Great Recession, I know, without a doubt, all the losses over the past 10 years could have been avoided, and all the gains collected. 

 

If you feel the same as me, I will detail a way for you to open an account with TradeStation and give each of you this algorithm along with the rules to take control of your portfolio.  If the market does 30% this year and only goes up, we typically can't beat it by much (but you still made 28% probably, if not more on the options), but if the market goes down, we will absolutely protect your accounts turn what would hasve been losses into profits.  Its up to you.  Starting March 1, I will show you how 10,000 invested in the S&P, or Nasdaq 100, or Dow, Eurodollar, 2-Year, or 10-year, or any other future can at least match the instrument you have selected and in most cases double or quadruple the return, especially if the instrument sells off.

 

If you have a Roth IRA, put in the minimum this year into a TradeStation account and see what happens.  If you like the results, put in some more.  Allow us to manage, issue signals, or train you to advance this tax free instrument to gains of 30% or more year over year.  Why 30%?  Because if the market on average gains 8%, with sell-offs, and volatility, you can quadruple that return.  Here are the numbers on 5,000 invested for 10 years tax free with money reinvested and contracts adjusted approprately:

 

 Start   Finish
 -----   -------
 5,000   6,500
 6,500   8,450
 8,450   10,985
 10,98   14,281
 14,281  18,565
 18,565  24,134
 24,134  31,374
 31,374  40,787
 40,787  53,022  

 53,022  68,929

 

In 10 years you would have nearly 70,000 since 2000 rather than just 5,000.  Taking control of your financial picture, and keeping the money you earn is what we all want. 

 

There is a limit to the amount you can put into an IRA and a 401(k) because the government wants to tax your money.  Don't let this happen.  Now, lets assume you add the minimum every year to the above 10 year plan (adding 5,000 allowed at the start of each year):

 

 Start   Finish
 ------  -------
 5,000   6,500
 11,500  14,950
 19,950  25,935
 30,935  40,216
 45,216  58,780
 63,780  82,914
 87,914  114,288
 119,288 155,075
 160,075 208,097

 213,097 277,027  

 

Nearly 4x the returns from just starting with 5,000.  Now, lets suppose you and your spouse open up an account, this means starting with 10,000 (5,000 in each IRA) and adding 5,000 annually to each IRA for a total of 10,000 combined annually:

 

 Start   Finish
 ------  -------------
 10,000  13,000
 23,000  29,900
 39,900  51,870
 61,870  80,431
 90,431  117,560
 127,560 165,828
 175,828 228,577
 238,577 310,150
 360,152 468,198

 478,198 621,657

 

You will have $621,657 tax free!  Now, after reviewing this, do you really want to give your hard earned dollars to someone else who will give you half of this, or even less?  What if we didn't earn 30% annually?  I am sure that there will be times when we don't earn as much as the market, but I am confident that preservation of capital will in fact be there, so when the market tanks, you can rest assured that your accounts will preserve their principal.  Additionally, we did roughly 40% this year, and I see no reason that this can't continue as long as there is a stock market and the current intraday moves continue (they have simply grown, not weakened over the last 10 years).

 

Now to answer another question, when will Trizen return some value?  I think the above answers all questions.  For over 3 years, we have provided newsletters on when to get into the market and when to get out while we developed an automated system that focused on risk management (something the rest of the world forgot about).  I don't know about you, but this is my retirement plan, and I am going to put every dime into the above formula and anything I can't put into an IRA, will go into a taxable account. And as an added bonus, the fund that we started last year, will continue to grow and as it does and dividends make sense, we will distribute the profits.   

 

Lets look at starting with 100,000 with the 10,000 added annually:

 

 Start   Finish
 ------  -------
 100,000 130,000
 140,000 182,000
 192,000 249,600
 259,600 337,480
 347,480 451,724
 461,724 600,241
 610,241 793,314
 803,314 1,044,308
 1,094,310 1,422,603
 1,432,603 1,862,383

 

If that doesn't make you jump up and say "That is Awesome" then you can leave your money with the Wall Street bankers who took your money over these last 10 years.  For me, I will take control of my future, starting March 1. 

 

I look forward to the next 10 years.  Join me in saying NO to bad risk taking, fees, and sell-offs that eat your life savings.

Sincerely,
 

Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
 
In This Issue
Market Action
COT
A Year in the Life
BladeTrader Version 3.6 
Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released.  We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages.
Quick Links
 

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