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Hello and Welcome,
Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter. This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information. Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.
Year to Date (YTD) Performance vs. the S&P 500: Return on Initial Capital: +32.74% We are currently above the S&P index by 21.19% |
| Market Action
Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): $950 | |
A really flat week heading into the Christmas holiday, though we did outpace the market these last two weeks. Generally, there seems to have been profit taking until the market sold off then the selling would subside and the process would start over. This kept the market in a tight range and it looks as though it will continue through the year.
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| Commitment of Traders
Bulls-n-Bears | The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market. It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders. Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets). Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers. In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.
Analysis: Lets review the prior COT analysis:
"Right on target as the market bounced off 1180 and went tested multi-year highs as portfolio managers attempted to not lag behind the market heading into year end. No real change here, though the small trader is now net short with professionals also net short in the electronic contract. The pit and electronic COT's continue to diverge. We should simply consolidate for a few days and in all likelihood will test 1250."
The COT electronic and COT pit trading continue to diverge and the market appears to be consolidating at 1250. No change through the rest of the year. |
| Commodities and Collapse of the Dollar
Are we headed for an economic collapse? | |
I find myself reading every book that goes against our current positions. One book recently written by Peter Schiff details a horrific scene of American economic collapse due to money printing (indirectly by the FED) and a falling dollar while commodities pegged to the dollar rally due to its collapse. Is this scenario far fetched? Its a compelling read, that is for sure, and though many of the scenarios seem extreme there is always a possibility that the American life style needs to come down to the current global levels. Continuing the theme in the book (paraphrasing):
Commodities are predicted to rally largely because they are in "dollars" and as the price of the commodity adjusts to a falling dollar the price will increase as the dollar loses its purchasing power for other currencies. Gold, Oil to name a few will continue their rise until demand destruction brings the price down. It may sound harsh, but high prices will force America to be creative and will eventually be the way out of our "services" economy that our government has been supporting for several decades.
Our return to a producing country must be supported by a government that competes with other governments that offer business incentives to produce things. A brain drain, where foreign born students get into our best schools and then return home to grow new businesses, is directly related to our government's lack of response to pseudo free market governments. In general, the global bull run of commodities will continue until our government gets out of the way of free enterprise.
Scary details of a possible scenario in the future. I agree with some aspects of this book, but for me I don't think the decoupling between our economy and the world will be enough to sink America (as countries move away from the dollar). America is a dynamic county and as such we will respond, we always do and we always will, but government risk is increasingly becoming the one issue the rest of the world is struggling with. What got us into this mess needs to be removed and that is: an increasingly large government trying to control a free market.
In large part, as we move into 2011, the Peter's idea of investing in foreign markets is a good one. He recommends Canada, Australia, Switzerland, the BRICs...basically anything NOT tied to the U.S. Good advice for any portfolio. |
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Sincerely,
Edward Zaremba Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
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| | BladeTrader Version 3.6 | | Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released. We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages. |
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U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN. |
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