Issue: #12512/04/2010 
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Bi-weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.

Year to Date (YTD) Performance vs. the S&P 500:
 
Return on Initial Capital: +30.37%
S&P Index: +9.83%
 
We are currently above the S&P index by 20.54%
Market Action 
Bi-Weekly Profit (P/L): $357

A horrible week as we did not make pace with the market due to a human error.  Overall, the 5% move should have padded our earnings by 5% but mistakes do happen.  The move comes on the heels of a 5% sell off amid renewed confidence in many economic indicators though this past Friday the Non-Farm payrolls and unemployment report showed a 9.8 unemployment rate with only 39,000 jobs created.  The silver lining is that more people have returned to looking for jobs as there seems to be a belief that the economy is doing better (or that unemployment benefits are drying up).  Look for some early December weakness after this latest rally with a stealth move higher as we close out the year.

 

     

Commitment of Traders 
Bulls-n-Bears
The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market.  It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders.  Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets).  Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers.  In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.  
Analysis:  Lets review the prior COT analysis: 

"The pit traded contract continues to show a strong bullish pattern with a minor profit taking reduction by the professionals; however, this market looks as though it will continue higher since there is really no place to put your money other than in stocks at the moment.  Eurozone issues popped up again, but this is becoming common place and as such market participants look at 1080 as a buying opportunity."

Right on target as the market bounced off 1080 and went tested multi-year highs as portfolio managers attempted to not lag behind the market heading into year end.  No real change here, though the small trader is now net short with professionals also net short in the electronic contract.  The pit and electronic COT's continue to diverge.  We should simply consolidate for a few days and in all likelihood will test 1250.

COT
Underperformance 
Human Error or Technical Glitch?

EddieZ I am not capable of adding much "Alpha" to the algorithm.  Its as simple as that.  The alpha I am speaking of is adding more return than simply following the market, in this case the algorithms were a lot smarter than me in identifying the 5% move we witnessed last week.  During this time, the overnight move was significant and in an attempt to not buy at 1195 (15 points above the close) I paused the system only to see the markets test 1230!  I lost sleep over this trade because it had nothing to do with technology and everything to do with human error.  Human error has cause more money loss this year than technical glitches, and at this point I have taken my medicine and fully trust the system (though I believe we will tweak it a bit over the holidays).  Instead of being up 35% we are only up 30% (and accounting for all human errors we should be up nearly 40%).  If we add in the January to February run we should be up well over 40% YTD (since we didn't start until March/April).

 

I look forward to closing out the year in a few weeks to discuss all that has been learned both technically and psychologically.

Sincerely,
 

Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
 
In This Issue
Market Action
COT
Levered vs. Under-Levered
BladeTrader Version 3.6 
Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released.  We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages.
Quick Links
 

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.