Issue: #1086/05/2010 
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.
 
Year to Date (YTD) Performance vs. the S&P 500:
 
Return on Initial Capital: 16.06%
S&P Index: -4.5 
 
We are currently above the S&P index by 20.56%
Market Action 
Weekly Profit (P/L): +$300
 MarketActionA shortened holiday weekend with high expectations for a Friday Non-Farm payrolls report had the week starting off extremely positive.  The 2% moves continued to occur with the S&P rallying into the 200-day moving average.
 
 However, during premarket activity on Friday rumors of massive losses at SocGen (European trading firm) along with Hungary's announcement of debt issues started bringing the market lower before the open.  
 
 Friday's disappointing "jobs number" sent the market into freefall as investors abandoned the rally after the government announced only 431,000 new jobs.  As we have stated before in prior newsletters, this figure is heavily watched by Wall Street and moves markets for several days afterwards. 
 
 The disappointment was in the nearly 400,000 government jobs added to this number which translates into a negative change month over month from April to May for private sector jobs.  The market reacted swift and sold off, settling at near its lows. 
 
 The algorithms entered near 1080 and handled a minor drawdown through most of the week and regained losses plus 300 on Friday.  Overall the system worked as expected though we turned the system off early on Friday as having positions into the weekend has been very risky.  We left an additional $500.00 on the table but ended the week positive.

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Commitment of Traders 
Bulls-n-Bears
The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market.  It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders.  Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets).  Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers.  In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.  
 
Analysis:  We are reviewing the S&P Electronic COT this week as it shows a bearish pattern.  With the electronic COT (contracts not traded in the pit but by computer) the BLUE professionals are typically correct while hedgers are support indicators.  In this case the BLUE professionals are net short along with Hedgers which can add additional volatility.  GREEN small investors are net long.
 
The bearish rally has found a ceiling at roughly 1100 and a floor at around 1040.  Best to continue defensive investment strategies.
 
  COT
 
Privatizing Gains & Socializing Losses 
Why we hate Wall Street 
EddieZ
Wall Street takes home huge bonuses on poor risk analytics and then we the tax payers bail out the investments.  This is the primary reason the retail investor has had enough of Wall Street and put their money into bonds and has basically declared "I am not losing any more of my money." 
We first saw this with the United States, Iceland, Greece and now Hungary is stepping into the game of socializing losses.  Should governments bail out private organizations that have taken billions in profits? 
 
Unfortunately the answer is yes, but we must also let the market work through this downturn rather than trying to get back to the status quo.  In other words governments must let deleveraging occur in an orderly manner rather than trying to support a system that is clearly "broke."
 
If a bank or financial firm is on the verge of bankruptcy and it will bring down the rest of the system, then it should be dissolved and broken down into smaller parts that can be run by smaller companies.  The likes of AIG, Citibank and others that are so massive they risk global global collapse need to be reduced and given to the one thing that makes the capitalism work:  SMALL BUSINESSES. 
 
Additionally, everyone has hated hedge funds and blamed them for all sorts of problems; however, I have yet to see a hedge fund get bailed out.  In fact, if we treated those groups that played at being "hedge funds" like actual hedge funds then we should let them participate in "creative destruction" rather than "destructive creation" the the former being the true process of capitalism wherein an obsolete idea is replaced with a new and creative idea (from Hot, Flat, and Crowded by Thomas Friedman), whereas "destructive creation" has been our recent love affair with subprime mortgage CDS Swaps and other creative instruments of high risk that earned billions but ended up requiring trillions to fix.
 
No small business has ever had to work so hard in these times as now.  Small businesses are suffering while large corporations that didn't manage their risk get bailed out while government spending is reduced for those that managed their risk. 
Sincerely,
 

Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
 
In This Issue
Market Action
COT
Why We Hate Wall Street
BladeTrader Version 3.6 
Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released.  We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages.
Quick Links
 

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