Issue: #1065/23/2010 
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the new Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Weekly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.
 
Year to Date (YTD) Performance vs. the S&P 500:
 
Return on Initial Capital: 10.10%
S&P Index: 0.21%
 
We are currently above the S&P index by 9.89%
Unprecedented Market Action 
Weekly Profit (P/L): +$2,173
 MarketActionThe market was sent lower but had a strong rally before heading into the weekend but not enough to lift the market for the week.  Heavy short covering to get most players out before a central bank issued some proclamation had most professionals out prior to the bell.
 
 The largest concern for most traders seems to be government intervention in the  markets.  Though the system required to remain in for the weekend, there is simply too much government involvement in the market to warrant leaving the trading systems on through the weekend.
 
 BladeTrader 3.6.SO is working well but against version 3.3 has been underperforming.  Mostly due to a system that trades all hours vs. a system that only trades during normal exchange hours
 
.The 200-day moving average was breached and cause a flurry of selling on Thursday.  Look for this now resistance level to be tested at 1095 range.
 
 Send to a Colleague
Commitment of Traders 
Bulls-n-Bears
The COT, or Commitment of Traders, represents a government report that collects all the open positions for all traders in the futures market.  It breaks it out into Hedgers, Professionals, and Small Traders.  Hedgers maintain large portfolio positions and will hedge their positions using the S&P (so they can protect against falling markets).  Professionals speculate and tend to be on the right side of the market opposite the hedgers.  In most cases the Small trader (Green) is a contrarian indicator.  
 
Analysis:  The Hedger has shorted in massive amounts last two week.  In general this would mean that any rally would immediately trigger a sell by most major investment firms.  They feel the market will recover and are not interested in selling their portfolios.  The professional trader is on the sidelines while the small trader is buying.  In general portfolio managers are NOT selling their portfolios short but are ramping up protection.  Continuing a defensive portfolio is recommended. 
 
  COT
Government Intervention 
Is it good or bad?
EddieZ
Its good for the short term and bad for the long term.  In general, governments are right in that a falling market hurts the mass majority since the mass majority are usually buyers of securities rather than speculative Sellers.  This means that a falling market reduces the financial well being of the mass majority.  Governments want to protect markets from falling to keep the mass majority from feeling "poorer" due to normal corrections and to maintain tax receipts (government's revenue).  We have seen this in several government examples over the last few years and not one of them has turned out for the better and some we are waiting to see how it turns out.
 
Plenty of government spending is good for simply delaying or postponing the inevitable.  Propping up housing simply delays the inevitable, giving loans to countries that are going to simply use the new loan to pay back older loans (to the same people that gave loans in the first place) is simply delaying the inevitable.  Additionally, with so much government intervention, it makes it difficult to actually believe in a free market that is dictated by fear and greed and simply dictated by a central bank or legislation.  It tends to have a negative effect on the market and cause for wild swings for no reason other than elimination of "government intervention risk." 
 
One particularly bad idea was the notion that banks could borrow from the federal government at 0% and then buy securities at 4% from the same U.S. government.  Sweet deal for the banks who then shore up their balance sheets to simply refrain from any lending while at the same time increase the mortgage default scenario due to an increase in loan qualification standards.  If a quarter of all mortgages are underwater, and banks don't refinance notes that are underwater, then we will see more and more defaults as owners simply walk because they cannot get refinanced prior to a rate reset.  In this case, the government has meddled in the financial system to support a banking system that clearly has no concern for the American people because they are getting free money from the U.S.
 
Governments need to simply stay out of the free market except for making sure there are no cheaters of the system.  In general, a free market must be free to rise and fall and is the best way to eliminate "bubbles" and high prices since the best cure for high prices is coincidentally, high prices (since by their nature they should fall). 
 
Is there any good government intervention?  Absolutely, but intervention that attempts to support a market is bad in every conceivable way.  Intervention on those who have been swindled, or cheated, or to correct a monopoly or other controlling entity is where the government needs to focus.  Artificially supporting banks, economies, unions, parents, teachers, business men and everything else simply needs to be removed from the free market and in general the market will correct itself and probably much faster and a lot less costly.
 
At Trizen Systems, we specialize in medium frequency trading which incorporates elements from HFT and fundamental strategies.  This type of trading reduces commission charges, slippage expenses (getting a bad price), and offers both long and short strategies and we only recommend the things we actually trade ourselves.  Why trust anyone who doesn't trade what they recommend?
Actual Trades for 5/18/2010 
Markets sell off
 We only recommend what we actually trade.  Here is a screen shot of our automated system in Action and the actual trades.
 
This represents a single day of trading in a bearish market.  We take our stop losses as shown in the first trade and then rallied back all plus.
 
ActualTrades 
Sincerely,
 

Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
Commodity Trading Advisor
 
In This Issue
Market Action
COT
Government Intervention
Actual Trades
BladeTrader Version 3.6 
Version 3.6 and 3.3 have been released.  We will have four accounts for each side and version and seperate percentages.
Quick Links
 

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