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Deller's two cents: relatively slow week for economic news.  Is increase in consumer borrowing a positive sign that people are feeling more confident in the economy (good news) or are they using credit as a crutch (bad nws)?  
 
Two news items not mentioned by the Vanguard folks: the one underlined quote below mentions a slowdown or weak recession in Europe, since this newsletter was released (late Friday) Europe announced that they are indeed in a formal mild recession, this may help explain the popular reaction against the austerity measures in the French elections.  Given Wisconsin's "austerity" approach to the state budget and the weak job market in Wisconsin does it suggest that the austerity approach may not work?  Or have we not given it (austerity policies) time to work? 
 
Second, JP Morgan announced a $2 billion (billion with a "b") loss on bad trading.  Knee-jerk reaction, did the banks learn nothing from the 2008 meltdown about risky trading strategies?  Will JP Morgan "clean house" as a signal that risky behavior is not acceptable or will they just hope it goes away? 

Economic Week in Review: Boldly back to borrowing May 11, 2012

Consumers borrowed much more than expected in March, as both student and car loans shot up and credit card borrowing rose after declining in January and February.

 

Analysts are unsure whether this news signals a real pickup in demand or just a need to lean more on credit, as job and income growth remain weak. For the week ended May 11, the S&P 500 Index declined 1.1% to 1,353 (for a year-to-date total return-including price change plus dividends-of about 8.4%). The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 7 basis points to 1.84% (for a year-to-date decrease of 5 basis points).

 

Consumer borrowing up significantly

Consumer credit surged $21.4 billion in March, more than double analysts' forecasts and the strongest jump for any month since November 2001. Over the last 19 months, consumer credit balances have seen 18 monthly increases.

 

Nonrevolving credit, which includes student and car loans, accounted for the largest part of the credit increase, climbing $16.2 billion for the month. The surge in student loans could mean that borrowers are trying to lock in interest rates before July-when costs on subsidized Stafford loans are expected to double.

 

As for revolving credit, which includes credit cards, debt rose $5.1 billion after declining $2.3 billion in February and $2.9 billion in January. The overall credit figures exclude home mortgages and other real estate secured loans.

 

U.S. trade deficit widens as a result of higher imports

The U.S. trade deficit widened by $6.4 billion in March to $51.8 billion, led by a 5.2% increase in imports. Exports increased nearly 3% to $186.8 billion. The 14% rise in the deficit was the sharpest one-month increase since last May's jump of almost 16%. On an annualized basis, the trade deficit is nearly $600 billion-about 7% higher than the previous year.

 

Even though U.S. exports to the 27-nation European Union (EU) rose 11.5% to a record $25.1 billion, the trade gap with those countries jumped to $9.8 billion, from $5.9 billion in February. This is because imports from the EU rose almost twice as much, 22.7%, to a record of nearly $35.0 billion. The deficit with China climbed to $21.7 billion and could surpass last year's gap of $295.5 billion-an all-time high for any country.

 

"With Europe going through a marked slowdown, if not an outright recession, and with many emerging countries in soft-landing mode, U.S. exports aren't growing as fast as imports," said Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Vanguard senior economist. "U.S. imports are holding stronger because, in relative terms, the United States is faring better in the global economy."

 

Producer prices fall unexpectedly

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index dropped 0.2% in April, the first decline this year and the biggest since October 2011. Economists had predicted that prices would be flat. Much of the drop stemmed from a 1.4% decline in energy prices, including gasoline, residential natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. Excluding food and energy, prices for finished goods increased 0.2%.

 

The economic week ahead

A busier week of reports lies ahead with the release of the Consumer Price Index, retail sales, and business inventories on Tuesday; new residential construction, industrial production, and the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee on Wednesday; and The Conference Board's leading economic indicators on Thursday.



-- 

Steven C. Deller  
Professor and Community Development Economist 
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics 
515 Taylor Hall --- 427 Lorch Street 
University of Wisconsin-Madison/Extension 
Madison, WI 53706 
608-263-6251 
"I started out with nothing and I still have most of it left." 
Seasick Steve

 

 

 
 
Sincerely,
 

Patrice Hoeschele

 

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