eDevelopments: A Stakeholder's View on Employment Numbers

A Stakeholder's Perspective on Employment Numbers

Last summer we published a newsletter article entitled Unemployment Numbers - Why the Glass is Half-Full. Almost a year later, we still hold the same belief that our local unemployment figures give us a reason to feel optimistic.

Now that we have given you our opinion, we would like to highlight one outside analysis from John Basinger, a professional Land Surveyor who is responsible for the Survey Departments at Klingner & Associates, P.C., in Hannibal, Quincy, and Burlington. His background includes a BA degree from Northwestern University, mathematics major, economics minor, and an MA in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of Iowa.

All the information used in this study is available to the public through the Illinois Department of Employment Security. For details regarding the latest unemployment numbers, click here.

Why look at employment numbers?
Generally the news media focuses on unemployment. My prejudice has been that one needs to know the employment figures too. A decline in unemployment may simply mean folks have left the area, and that the economy is struggling. I started watching the data in the 1980's. While there are always "ups" and "downs", the general trend in employment in Adams County since 1979 has been up. I recently decided to make my own copy after hearing on the local news a comment that this is the worst economic situation we have faced locally since the Great Depression. Honestly, 1983 was worse than the present and neither approaches the magnitude of the Great Depression.

Data Highlights

The West Central Illinois Economic Development Region has the lowest unemployment rate in the state.
Adams County has the fifth lowest unemployment rate out of 102 counties.
Our worst Adams County monthly unemployment rate since 1979 was 14.4% in 1983.

Situation Analysis

In my opinion, there is of course a risk to underestimation of the serious economic problems we are facing. However, it can be damaging to overstate the negatives. For example, if Klingner PC out of overreaction or fear, lays off people in Quincy because of fears that next month we may face the economic environment we hear others across the country are facing, we put an unnecessary damper on the local economy and inhibit the long term strength of our organization by the potential permanent loss of valuable talent. Even premature open consideration of such an option undermines employees' confidence in the employer and undermines the mutual sense of loyalty that I believe is essential to a healthy organization.

Similarly, in my opinion, if in Adams County we do not find ways to keep teachers employed in spite of the loss of state revenue, we are harming the local economy and inviting the permanent loss of professionals at the heart of our ability to become more efficient through education. There are other examples.

In the 80's the penny sales tax for infrastructure was passed by a bipartisan City Council. The pennies helped to fund job producing infrastructure improvements. And the projects made a statement that we intended to be around awhile. I am not suggesting we should try to go back and repeat the things that we did then. We need to find contemporary approaches.

What do all the numbers mean?

Adams County and for the most part, Western and Central Illinois, are actually in amazingly good shape. We are nowhere near the unemployment levels we were at in 1985. While I do NOT intend to underestimate the magnitude of the problem and nor minimize the need for fiscal responsibility, in my opinion the biggest threat we face locally is over-reaction. Negative expectations can negatively affect an economy.