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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl
Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: September 28, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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Know someone that would like to receive our Weekly Updates, please feel free to forward this e-mail and have them join our subscriber list below.
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Around the Capitol
Department of Corrections Secretary Retiring
 | | Secretary Hamblin (Credit WKOW) |
On Thursday, Wisconsin Department of Correction Secretary Gary Hamblin, announced that he is stepping down on October 26th to attend to health issues according to a report by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (link here). The article noted that Secretary Hamblin is fighting prostate cancer and his wife is receiving treatment for blood cancer.
This morning, Governor Scott Walker released the following statement on Secretary Hamblin's retirement:
"I would like to thank Gary Hamblin for his service and leadership as the Secretary of the Department of Corrections and to commend him for his 45-year career of public service for the citizens of Wisconsin," Governor Walker said. "His compassion and integrity served him well in his roles as Dane County Sheriff and at the Division of Criminal Investigation and the Department of Corrections. I have always had great respect for his dedication to public safety, passion for innovative ideas, and common-sense approach to often complicated issues. He will be greatly missed. Tonette and I wish the very best for Secretary Hamblin and his family."
Secretary Hamblin is the second member of Governor Walker's cabinet to announce that they are moving on this month, with Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Secretary/President Paul Jadin announcing his departure to Thrive earlier this month.
Supreme Court refuses to take up voter ID
The Wisconsin Supreme Court decided this week it would not hear challenges to the state voter ID law until an appeals court hears the case. Attorney General JB Van Hollen had asked the Court to take up the case directly so that the voter ID law could be in place by the November 6th General Election. The court's decision means that it is likely that injunctions against the voter ID law will remain in place for the November 6th election.
Attorney General Van Hollen released the following statement regarding the orders from the Supreme Court in the voter ID cases:
"The Voter ID law protects the integrity of our elections. Injunctions entered by circuit court judges, acting alone, have already kept this law from being applied in several important elections over the past year. I am very disappointed that the Supreme Court has failed to act by denying the motions to consolidate these actions, bypass the Court of Appeals, and stay the injunctions against the Voter ID law. The result is that the injunctions against the Voter ID law remain in effect and will, in all likelihood, be in effect for the upcoming November elections. Despite this setback, I continue to believe that the Voter ID law is constitutional and I will continue the battle to have the law upheld."
The League of Women Voters, one of the parties that brought the suit to declare the law unconstitutional, released the following statement:
We at the League of Women Voters are glad the case will have a full and thoughtful review in the Appeals Court. Even more, we are delighted that no Wisconsin voters will be disenfranchised by unconstitutional voter ID requirements in the coming election.
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Election Update: Control of the State Senate
Republicans came out of the 2010 November General Election with a 19-14 majority in the Wisconsin State Senate. Their majority shrunk to a 17-16 majority after incumbent senators Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac) and Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse) were defeated in Recall Elections in August of 2011. In June of this year, after the Legislature adjourned for the session, Democrats captured the majority in a second wave of recall elections when former State Senator John Lehman (D-Racine) defeated incumbent Republican Senator Van Wanggaard (R-Sturtevant). Democrats currently have a 17-15 majority with the vacancy created by Rich Zipperer leaving the State Senate to be Governor Scott Walker's deputy chief of staff.
Currently we see the races shaping up into 4 tiers of competitiveness for change in party control of that seat at this point in the :
- Tier 1 (high likelihood): 12th Senate District
- Tier 2 (could be competitive): 18th and 30th Senate Districts
- Tier 3 (not likely to be competitive): 10th, 14th, 20th, 24th, 28th and 32nd
- Tier 4 (not competitive/unopposed): 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 16th, 22nd, and 26th Senate Districts.
In this update we will only focus on the top two tiers. 12th Senate District- NE Wisconsin  | | Rep. Tom Tiffany |
Incumbent Senator Jim Holperin (D-Conover) the only lawmaker in the nation to survive two recall attempts in two different houses of the state legislature, is not seeking re-election to his seat. State Representative Tom Tiffany (R-Hazelhurst), who had previously run for the Senate seat in 2004 and 2008, is facing off against Susan Sommers (D-Phelps).
The newly drawn 12th Senate District has a generic election performance of 53% Republican, on average Republicans average 53% of the vote in the district. Polling shared by the Democratic and Republican campaign committees both have Tiffany currently favored in election polling. Democrats have Tiffany with a 9% lead, but under 50% of the vote. Republicans have Tiffany with 10% lead and at 50% of the vote. The surveys were taken in early and late August respectively. More on the candidates: 18th Senate District- Oshkosh Area  | | Sen. Jess King |
Incumbent State Senator Jessica King (D-Oshkosh) captured her seat in the first round of recall elections in August of 2011. She defeated incumbent State Senator Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac) with 51.1% of the vote. She is being challenged by Rick Gudex, a production manager at Brenner Tank, LLC. King narrowly lost to Hopper in 2008. The new 18th Senate District has an average election performance of 54% GOP. Both the Democrats and Republicans both have Senator King currently leading. The Democratic campaign committee had Sen. King +16% in early August, while the Republican Committee had Sen. King +8% on Gudex in their late August survey. More on the candidates:
30th Senate District- Green Bay Area  | | Sen. Dave Hansen |
State Senator Dave Hansen was first elected to the State Senate in 2000, and has been re-elected since. Sen. Hansen easily survived a recall election attempt in 2011. Sen. Hansen is being challenged by businessman John Macco. Macco is president of Macco Financial Group, Inc. and formerly on the Executive Board of Downtown Green Bay, Inc.
The 30th Senate District has an average election performance of 51% Democratic. Both the Democrats and Republicans have Sen. Hansen leading in their polling, although by varying amounts. An early August survey by the Democrats has Hansen leading Macco by 22%. Republicans, in their late August poll, have Hansen leading by 7%. More on the candidates:
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US Senate Race Update
Control of the US Senate No new polling in Wisconsin this week, but polls in other states are starting to make the map more friendly for Democrats to retain control of the US Senate, and more difficult for Republicans to gain control of the US Senate. - RealClearPolitics.com (48 DEM-43 GOP (-1))- After RCP moved Wisconsin and Nevada from the "Lean Republican" to the "Toss-Up" category last week, they moved Arizona from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-Up." RCP also moved MI from "Lean Democrat" to "Likely Democrat." RCP ranks the following 9 seats now as "toss ups:" AZ, CT, IN, MA, MT, ND, NV, VA and WI.
- NY Times (47 DEM- 46 GOP)- No change in the NY Times rankings this week. The NY Times identify Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Polling Watch: After a flurry of poll releases last week, no new polls released this week. Here are the polling averages and projections from RCP and HuffingtonPost-Pollster: Debates: The first of the 3 US Senate debates will be tonight at 8:00 p.m. For a list of television stations that will broadcast live and delayed broadcasts of the debate click here. - The second debate will be Oct. 18 in Wausau and is sponsored the Journal Sentinel, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and WTMJ-TV (Channel 4).
- The third debate will be at the Marquette University Law School and is sponsored by the law school and WISN-TV (Channel 12) and will be on Oct. 26th.
AD WATCH For the last couple weeks, media advertising has been dominated by the Baldwin campaign and her supporters, this week we saw an uptick in advertising from organizations supporting Thompson and opposing Baldwin. Tommy for Wisconsin The Thompson campaign released two ads critical of Congresswoman Baldwin's congressional record and charging that Congresswoman Baldwin is "too extreme for Wisconsin."  | | EXTREME |
Tammy Baldwin for Senate The Baldwin campaign released an ad touting the Congresswoman's support and authorship of the "Buffet Rule" and Governor Thompson's opposition to the change.  | | Rules -- Tammy Baldwin for Senate |
Emily's List/Women Vote Emily's List, through their Political Action Committee "Women Vote!" released a new ad this week called "Wallet." The ad targets Gov. Thompson for his "ties to lobbying firms."  | | Wisconsin WOMEN VOTE!: Wallet |
Crossroads GPS This week the conservative group Crossroads GPS released a new ad called "Stamp" that targets Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin for her "extreme tax and spend agenda."  | | Crossroads GPS: "Stamp" WI |
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee This week the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released an ad attacking Governor Thompson for what they say is his plan to "gut Medicare."  | | Tommy Thompson isn't thinking about you |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
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Presidential Race Update
A relatively quiet week in Wisconsin as it relates to the presidential race. First Lady Michelle Obama is in Wisconsin today and we will cover her visit in next week's report. Wisconsin Eye is covering 1:00 p.m. event in Appleton via tape delay. Their coverage can be found here.
WISCONSIN PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
No new polls in Wisconsin this week in Wisconsin.
Pollster Estimate: Catching up from all the polls released last week, Pollster has released an updated projection for Wisconsin. This is the first time since April that President Obama crossed the 50% threshold in the Pollster projection.
- Obama 50.3% (+1.3%)
- Romney 43.5% (-1.2%)
AD WATCH: No new polls, but Wisconsin is starting to get more advertising attention with several new presidential ads released this week in the state.
Obama for America The Obama campaign released an ad in Wisconsin called "To Us" targeting Mitt Romney's business dealings at Bain Capital. The ad notes that "Romney's not the solution. He's the problem."
 | | To Us - Obama for America TV Ad |
Romney for President The Romney campaign released a new 1 minute long ad in Wisconsin called "Too Many Americans" talking about the struggling economy and noting "We can't afford another four years like the last."
 | | Too Many Americans |
Restore our Future The Pro-Romney Political Action Committee started airing a new ad in Wisconsin called "Kindergarten." The ad focuses on President Obama's stewardship of the economy and closes with "Is America going forward? Or backward?"
 | | "Kindergarten" - Restore Our Future |
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL POLLING: The national poll tracking remained largely unchanged this week, with a 3/10th movement upwards for President Obama and a 2/10th movement downward for former Governor Romney.
- President Obama 48.7% (+0.3%)
- Governor Romney 44.5% (-0.2%)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
According to Gallup, September is turning out to be one of President Obama's best months in over a year. As September closes out, the President is on track to average roughly 49% job approval this month, according to Gallup that is up from an average of 45% in August and an average of 41% in September 2011.
- President Obama Job Approval: 50.0% (-1%)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 44.0% (+1%)
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The Electoral College (Race to 270): This week the electoral map got a little bluer according to battle ground state polling.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP projection changed again this week with Ohio and its 18 electoral votes moving to lean Obama.
- Obama-265 electoral votes (+18)
- Romney-191 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 82 electoral votes (8 states incl. CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC & VA)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map remain unchanged this week.
- Obama- 237 electoral votes
- Romney- 191 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 110 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Market Indicator Website:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up on Intrade by 8.6% this week, from 70% chance of re-election to 78.6%.
- Governor Romney's chance of winning dropped by 7.6%, from 29.2% last week to 21.6% this week.
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Calendar of Events for Week of October 1st-5th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, October 1st
ADCC Superior reception for Reps. Janet Bewley and Nick Milroy
5 p.m.
Thirsty Pagan Brewing Company,
1623 Broadway St.,
Superior.
All contributions welcome (FED PAC only)
Make check payable to: ADCC
P.O. Box 814
Madison, WI 53701
RSVP: Chanel Rose, 608-260-2407 or chanelr@wisdems.org
Fundraiser for 25th AD candidate Paul Tittl
5:30 p.m.
The Club,
200 E. Waldo Blvd.,
Manitowoc.
With Special Guest Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen
Host levels Available:
$500 Gold Sponsor
$250 Silver Sponsor
$100 Bronze Silver
Suggested Contribution $50
All Donations Gratefully Accepted.
Please Make Checks Payable to:
Friends of Paul Tittl
115 East Waldo Blvd.
Manitowoc, WI 54220
Please RSVP to: (920) 901-0155
Tuesday, October 2nd
Tenth annual golf classic with Sen. Alberta Darling
11:30 a.m.
The Bog,
3121 County Road I,
Saukville.
11:30 Registration/Box Lunch/Practice
1:00 Shotgun Start
5:30 Cocktail Reception/Awards Ceremony
$1,200 per Foursome
$1,000 Hole Sponsorship (doesn't include golf)
$300 per Person to Golf
$500 per PAC
$250 Reception Only
Please make checks payable to: Friends of Alberta Darling
1478 Noridge Trail
Port Washington, WI 53074
Questions or to RSVP contact Mary Stitt at 262-268-6859 or marystitt@wi.rr.com
Fundraiser for Rep. Andy Jorgensen
5:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Grill,
2601 Morse St.,
Janesville.
Join Andy Jorgensen and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett at the Milwaukee Grill in Janesville
Host - $500, Sponsor - $250, Friend - $100, Suggested Donation - $25
**No PAC Contributions
RSVP: AndyJorgensen43@gmail.com or (815)-474-3973
Checks Payable: Friends of Andy Jorgensen at 1424 Endl Boulevard, Fort Atkinson, WI 53538
secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/16006 or andyjorgensen.com
Wednesday, October 3rd
Carol Beals for Assembly reception4 p.m.
Warming House Shelter,
Lancaster Memorial Park,
Lancaster.
Host: $100; Friend: $50; Suggested donation for entry: $25
Make checks payable to: Friends of Carol Beals
P.O. Box 49
Platrteville, WI 53818
RSVP: Kyle at 608-642-6492 or bealsforassembly@gmail.com
Reception for Sen. Jessica King
5 p.m.
Louisanne's,
7464 Hubbard Ave.,
Middleton.
Please Join Senate Majority Leader Mark Miller, Senator Jon Erpenbach and Senator Tim Cullen at:
A Reception for Sen. Jessica King
$1,00 Host
$500 Sponsor
$250 Friend
Sorry, no PAC accepted
Thursday, October 4th
ADCC Milwaukee reception
5 p.m.
Best Place at Historic Pabst Brewery,
901 W. Juneau Ave.,
Milwaukee.
With Democratic Leader Peter Barca and Assistant Leader Sandy Pasch
Host: $1000, Sponsor: $500, Friend: $250, Supporter: $100,
RSVP: Dave Groshek, (608) 260-2425 or daveg@wisdems.org
ADCC
PO Box 814, Madison, WI 53701
Give Online : https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/19013
***All Contributions Welcome (FED PAC ONLY)
Fundraiser for 35th AD candidate Kevin Koth
10/4/2012 Fifth Avenue Restaurant, 714 5th Ave., Antigo. Host: $250; Sponsor: $100; Supporter: $50; Suggested: $35; All contributions welcome Make checks payable to: Friends of Koth W4987 Hoovie Road Tomahawk, WI 54487 RSVP: Andy Gill at 262-370-2629 or andyg@wisdems.org
Fundraiser for Rep. Andy Jorgensen
5:30 p.m.
Stoughton Area Democratic Headquarters, 220 W. Main St., Stoughton. The Stoughton Area Dems Welcome Representative Andy Jorgensen Special Guest Representative Gary Hebl Suggeted Donation $25 RSVP: andyjorgensen43@gmail.com or with Ben at (815)-474-3973 Friends of Andy Jorgensen 1424 Endl Blvd. Fort Atkinson, WI 53538 Give Online: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/entity/16006 **No PAC Contributions
Fundraiser for Rep. Dan Knodl
6 p.m. Home of John and Stephanie Benske, 9935 N. Valley Hill Drive, Mequon. Special Guest State Senator Alberta Darling $500.00 Gold Level Co-Host $250.00 Silver Level Co-Host $150.00 Bronze Level Co-Host Suggested donation $100.00 per couple Send Checks to: Knodl Assembly 24 N101W14475 Ridgefield Ct Germantown, WI. 53022 Friday, October 5th
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