|
|
|
Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
|
TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl
Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: September 14, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
|
Know someone that would like to receive our Weekly Updates, please feel free to forward this e-mail and have them join our subscriber list below.
|
Around the CapitolRevenue Collections Up in WisconsinThe Department of Revenue released updated revenue projections for the state's general fund, and for fiscal year 2011-2012 collections are $126.6 million above previous estimates. According to Department of Administration Secretary Mike Huebsch, if the current projections hold, Wisconsin will end the budget cycle with a $274 million surplus and $125 in the budget stabilization (rainy day) fund. Link to DOR Release: http://www.revenue.wi.gov/news/20120905_01.pdfAgency Budget Request due on MondayState agency two-year budget proposals are due on Monday, September 17th. In a letter to Department heads in August, Governor Scott Walker told agency heads what he expected of their requests, including zero growth in overall General Purpose Revenue appropriations in each fiscal year of the 2013-2015 budget. Agency budget requests will be posted here once they are received by the Department of Administration. A copy of Governor Walker's budget preparation instructions can be found here. A review of Agency budget requests will be in our next update, but most significant initiatives related to the Governor's budget will not be announced until February when he introduces his budget to the next Legisalture. Meetings in the CapitolSeveral committees will be holding informational hearings next week and in the upcoming weeks in preparation for the 2013- 2014 Legislative Session. As a reminder the Wisconsin Legislature is currently adjourned until 2013.
All hearings will begin at 10 a.m. in Room 411 South in the Capitol. Informational Hearing 1 Tuesday, September 18 Dr. Tom Evans, Wisconsin Geological Survey Rebecca Graser, Army Corps of Engineers Ann Coakley, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Informational Hearing 2 Thursday, September 20 George Meyer, Wisconsin Wildlife Federation Dave Boetcher, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers James Buchen & Scott Manley, Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Informational Hearing 3 Tuesday, September 25 Stephen Donohue, Wisconsin Mining Association Jennifer Giegerich, Wisconsin League of Conservation Voters Amber Meyer Smith, Clean Wisconsin, Inc. Senate Joint Informational Hearing on skills gap and regional workforce development initiatives:
Wednesday, September 19, 2012 11:00 AM Fox Valley Technical College, Riverside Campus, Room 133 150 North Campbell Road, Oshkosh, WI
Senate Informational Hearing on implementation of the Affordable Care Act
Friday, September 21, 2012 12:00 PM 411 South State Capitol Invited guests include Ken Munson, Regional Director for the US Department of Health and Human Services. |
|
US Senate Race Update
Control of the US Senate This week most of the political projection sites have the number of toss-up senate seats dwindling to 6 or 7, with Wisconsin now in the "Lean GOP" column in all three of the projection sites we are tracking. - RealClearPolitics.com (47 DEM-46 GOP)- RCP has moved the MI US Senate race into the lean Democrat column. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow has an average 6.8% lead over former Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra. RCP ranks the following seats as "toss ups:" CT, IN, MA, MT, ND, OH and VA.
- NY Times (47 DEM- 47 GOP)- Since our last look at the NY Times rankings, the only change was the movement of Wisconsin from toss-up to lean Republican. The remaining toss-up states that the NY Times identify are Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Virginia.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball (48 DEM- 48 GOP)- University of VA professor Larry Sabato has narrowed down the field of competitive US Senate races from 5 toss-ups in our last update to 4, moving Florida from toss-up to lean Democrat. According to Sabato the winner of three of MA, MO, MT and VA, will control the US Senate. Note in a 50-50 split of the US Senate, the Vice President of the United States, is the tie-breaker.
Ad Watch: A bunch of new ads up in the US Senate campaign this week, with outside groups making their presence known, especially critical of former Governor Thompson. Thompson for US Senate: In his first ad of the General Election campaign, Thompson notes his history of accomplishments in Wisconsin as Governor and in Washington as HHS Secretary. Baldwin for US Senate: The Baldwin campaign accuses former Governor Thompson for "using his DC connections" to gain favors for various industries. A message that is echoed in similar ads from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Service Employees International Union and Majority PAC ads.  | | Boy Did He |
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee:  | | Tommy Thompson Admits He Went to Washington and Never Looked Back |
Majority PAC (Protecting Democratic Senate Majority)/SEIU  | | Buildings |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
|
Presidential Race Update
 Battle Ground Wisconsin
Wisconsin's importance as a battleground presidential state was evident this week with visits by Vice President Joe Biden and his challenger GOP Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan.
Vice President Biden was in Eau Claire on Thursday, speaking at the University of Wisconsin Eau Claire, about the Obama Administration's vision for moving the economy forward. Video of the Vice President's address can be found below.
 | | Vice President Biden speaking at UW Eau Claire |
Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (R-Janesville), the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, was also back in Wisconsin this week for a Town Hall meeting in De Pere. Congressman Ryan spoke about concerns with the Obama Administration's performance, and the Romney's plan to the country on the "right track."
 | | GOP Vice Presidential Nominee Paul Ryan speaking in DePere |
Concurrent with the candidate visits, both presidential campaigns have started running their first ads in the state of the general election.
Obama for America
The Obama for America campaign has three ads running in Wisconsin.
 | | Obama for America TV Ad: "Troubled" |
 | | "Stretch" - Obama for America TV Ad |
 | | The Choice - Obama for America TV Ad |
Romney for President
The Romney campaign has a Wisconsin-specific ad running in the state talking about the "Romney plan for Wisconsin."
 | | A Better Future: Wisconsin - Deficit |
American Future Fund American Future Fund, a conservative multi-state issue advocacy group, started airing an ad in Wisconsin called "Janesville" in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, citing it as an example of "Obama's failed leadership."
 | | Janesville |
Wisconsin Presidential Polling: No new polls this week in Wisconsin so the pollster estimate remains the same.
Pollster Estimate:
There is a slight bump for Romney this week in WI, with him moving up 2.3% in the Pollster chart, while Pres. Obama drops a half percent.
- Obama 49.0% (-.5%)
- Romney 46.1% (+2.3%)
National Presidential Polling: More than a half dozen polls came out this week that show President Obama getting a bounce from the Democratic convention, moving the race a .5% margin separating the candidates to Pres. Obama leading by 3.8% in the Pollster estimate.
- President Obama 48.7% (+2.5%)
- Governor Romney 44.9% (-0.8%)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
Post the Democratic Nation President Obama's current daily tracking job approval moved favorably with a 5% uptick in job approval and a 5% reduction in job disapproval.
- President Obama Job Approval: 49.0% (+5%)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 42.0% (-5%)
|
Comparing President Obama's job approval to the last 5 presidents at this point in their re-election campaigns, his approval rating is closer to those presidents who have been re-elected than to those who have only served one-term:
- President Obama- 49% Approval
- President G. W. Bush - 52% Approval
- President Clinton- 60% Approval
- President G. H. W. Bush- 39% Approval
- President Reagan- 57% Approval
- President Carter- 37% Approval
The Electoral College (Race to 270): This week the electoral map got a little bluer according to battle ground state polling.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP projection changed this week with Michigan moving back to lean Obama. Previously Michigan was in the lean Obama category, but moved to toss-up at the same time WI did. Pollster has Pres. Obama leading in MI polling by 4.3% and RCP has Pres. Obama leading in MI by an average of 5.8%.
- Obama-237 electoral votes
- Romney-191 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 126 electoral votes (9states incl. CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, WI & VA)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map did not change this week with 8 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column. The NY Times model has Romney capturing NC and its 15 electoral votes. Pollster has NC at 3.1% for Romney and RCP has NC at 4.8% for Romney.
- Obama- 237 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 95 electoral votes (8 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up on Intrade by 7% this week, from 57% to 64.7% chance of re-election.
- Governor Romney's chance of winning dropped by a similar amount, from 42.9% last week to 35.4% this week.
Links: |
|
DNC Convention Wrap
Democratic National Convention Wrap
Similar to the Republican convention, Wisconsin Democrats also received extra attention at their national convention last week, given the importance our state may play in choosing the next president and which party controls the United States Senate.
Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison), who is running for the US Senate against former Republican Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson, had a keynote slot on the same night as President Obama. And Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee) joined House Democratic Leader and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) for a "presentation of the women of the House."
Below are links to the videos:
 | | Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin at the 2012 Democratic National Convention |
 | | Congresswomen at the 2012 Democratic National Convention |
|
|
Calendar of Events for Week of September 17th-21st:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, September 17th Fundraiser for Rep. Garey Bies
11:30 a.m. Simon Creek Winery 5896 Bochek Road, Carlsville. With Special Guest Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch Suggested Donation $50 All donations gratefully accepted Please Send Checks to: Bies for Assembly PO Box 101 Sister Bay, WI 54234 RSVP by September 13th to Garey at (920) 421 0019 Appreciated
Fundraiser for Rep. Roger Rivard
4:30 p.m. Turtleback Golf & Country Club, 1985 18 1/2 St., Rice Lake. With Special Guest Governor Scott Walker Suggested contribution $100 All donations gratefully accepted Please makes checks payable to: Roger Rivard for Assembly 2680 17th Ave. Rice Lake, WI 54868 Please RSVP to 715-458-4598
Fundraiser for Rep. John Nygren
5:30 p.m. N2118 Keller Road, Marinette. Tax Payers for Nygren 7th annual Steak Fry, with Special guest Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch Please join us for an evening of fine food, wine, and good friends at the Nygren home, N2118 Keller Rd, Marinette. $100 minimum contribuion suggested. Host Committee members being sought Steak Hosts - $500, Wine Hosts $250. RSVP by September 12, to Elect@VoteJohnNygren.com or 715-923-3426. Limited space available.
Tuesday, September 18th
Lunch reception for 30th SD candidate John Macco
10:45 a.m.
Jet Air,
1921 Airport Drive,
Green Bay.
With Special Guest: Governor Scott Walker
10:45 Host Round Table Briefing/Photo Opportunity
11:30-1:00 Lunch Reception
$100 per person to attend the 11:30 luncheon
$500 per person to attend the 10:45 private round table and luncheon
$1,000 per person for the 10:45 photo opportunity, private round table briefing, and luncheon
RSVP to senate@wisgop.org or by calling 608-257-8035
Macco for Senate
PO Box 896
Green Bay, WI 54305
Fundraiser for 22nd SD candidate Pam Stevens
11:30 a.m.
Slice Eatery,
4235 Green Bay Road,
Kenosha.
With Special Guest: Senator Scott Fitzgerald
Suggested contribution:$50 per person
For Questions or to RSVP please contact: (262) 945-9560
Please make checks payable to:
Pam Stevens for State Senate
4024 Washington Road #208
Kenosha, WI 53140
Fundraiser for Rep. Dale Kooyenga and 13th AD candidate Rob Hutton
4:30 p.m.
Miron Milwaukee Office,
10700 Research Drive, Suite 100,
Wauwatosa.
Please make checks payable to either:
Citizens for Dale Kooyenga
15365 St. Therese Blvd
Brookfield, WI 53005
-Or-
Citizens for Rob Hutton
17785 Marseille Dr.
Brookfield, WI 53045
Reception for AG J.B. Van Hollen 5 p.m. Western Racquet Club, 1800 Highland Drive, Elm Grove. Hosts: $1,000, $500, & $250 Guests: $50 per person Please make checks payable to: Van Hollen for Attorney General Contact: Mike Austin at (608) 661-0777 or mike@persuasionpartners.com Reception for Sen. Dave Hansen 5 p.m. Madison's, 119 King St., Madison. Join Senate Majority Leader Mark Miller at: A Reception for Senator Dave Hansen $1,000 Host $500 Sponsor $250 Friend Sorry, no PAC accepted
Fundraiser for Rep. Jeremy Thiesfeldt
5:30 p.m. Trinity Restaurant, 40 E. Division St., Fond du Lac. Special guest speaker - Julaine Appling, Wisconsin Family Action Suggested donation - $25/person Red hosts - $500 White hosts - $350 Blue Hosts - $250 Checks to Citizens for Jeremy Thiesfeldt, 604 Sunset Lane, Fond du Lac 54935 RSVP to jjt1@charter.net or (920) 933-2086 by Sept. 14
Wednesday, September 19th
Tea with Tonette fundraiser for Rep. Amy Loudenbeck
2:30 p.m.
Abbey Resort,
Porto Room,
269 Fontana Blvd.,
Fontana-on-Geneva Lake.
Special Guest Wisconsin First Lady Tonette Walker
$100 Suggested contribution
Please send contributions to:
Amy Loudenbeck for Assembly
P.O. Box 556
Clinton, WI 53525
Please RSVP to Jillian at jillian@amyforassembly.com
Fundraiser for Rep. Jim Steineke
5:30 p.m.
Hollanders Pub & Grill,
1820 E. Main St.,
Little Chute.
Host level $500 & $250
Suggested Contribution: $25
Please make checks payable to:
Steineke for Assembly
N2352 Vandenbroek Road
Kaukauna WI 54130
RSVP to jim@jimsteineke.com or 920-427-2477 by Sept 14th
Oktoberfest reception for Sen. Jennifer Shilling
5:30 p.m.
City Brewery Hospitality Center,
1111 3rd St. S.,
La Crosse.
Fundraiser for Rep. Kathy Bernier
6 p.m.
Home of Doug & Sue Bowe,
1496 Co. Highway UN,
Chippewa Falls.
With Special Guest Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch
Suggested Donation $50
All donations gratefully accepted
Please Send Checks to:
Friends of Kathy Bernier
4511 110th St.
Chippewa Falls, WI 54729
RSVP by September 14th to Kathy at (715) 590-8754 Appreciated
Thursday, September 20th
Reception in support of 18th SD candidate Rick Gudex
5 p.m.
Robbins Restaurant,
1810 Omro Road,
Oshkosh.
With Special Guests: Senator Scott Fitzgerald, Senator Glenn Grothman, Senator Luther Olsen, Senator Mike Ellis, Senator Joe Leibham, Senator Rob Cowles, Senator Leah Vukmir, Senator Frank Lasee
Suggested contribution $50 per person $75 per couple
RSVP to senate@wisgop.org or by calling 920-922-1383
Gudex for Senate
PO Box 1381
Fond du Lac, WI 54936
Fundraiser for Rep. Paul Farrow
5:30 p.m.
Bonfyre American Grille,
Arbor Gates Towers,
2601 W. Beltline Highway,
Madison.
PLEASE JOIN US
with Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Margaret Farrow
for an event honoring
Candidate for State Senate Paul Farrow
Women for John Spiros fundraiser
5:30 p.m.
The Great Dane,
2305 Sherman St.,
Wausau.
Special guest speaker: Rachel Campos-Duffy
All contributions gratefully accepted. Please make checks payable to: Spiros for State Assembly 1406 East Fillmore Marshfield, WI 54449
Website: www.spiros4stateassembly.com
Friday, September 21st
No events scheduled |
|
Stay Connected on what's going on politically throughout the week
Follow us on Twitter
Like us on Facebook
Follow us on tumblr
|
|
|
|
|
|
