Control of the US Senate 

Surveying some of the national political prediction websites, Wisconsin is among the states that will decide which party controls the US Senate.  Here  are where the various sites place Wisconsin's race, and the status of control right now.

• RealClearPolitics.com (WI lean GOP)- RCP has WI leaning Republican with 8 toss-up states and GOP controlling 46 seats, incl. WI, and DEMs controlling 46 seats.
• NY Times (Toss Up)- NY Times has WI as a toss-up with 46 seats in the GOP column and 47 seats in the DEM column, and 7 toss-up including WI.
• Sabato's Crystal Ball (WI lean GOP)- University of VA professor Larry Sabato moved WI to the Lean GOP right after the GOP Primary.  He ranks the US Senate race currently as having 5 toss-up states (FL, MA, MO, MT and VA) with Republicans having a 48 to 47 advantage.  

Politico and the National Journal  

These two political news publications do monthly tracking of the competitiveness of the US Senate races with Politico tracking the most competitive races and National Journal ranking the most likely to flip political control.

Politico

Politico sees the race in Wisconsin keeping the hopes of the GOP alive to gain control of the US Senate, but the path getting much more difficult with Missouri slipping out of contention. Politico's ranking is of the top ten most competitive races, with Politico moving the WI race toward less competitive as polling suggests Thompson in the lead. Further down the competitive list are MO at #9 and Connecticut which is a new entrant to the list as that race has gotten more competitive post primary.

8. Wisconsin (down 3 spots)

Even the wisest of Republican wisemen were dubious that Tommy Thompson could survive the unforgiving GOP primary environment. But since carving out a 3-point win on Aug. 14, the former four-term governor has turned a battleground race into a ripe pickup opportunity. A trio of public polls since the primary show him leading Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin and range between 5 and 9 points. And Republicans are convinced Mitt Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan just makes Baldwin's task more arduous. "[Baldwin] was already a bad match for a swing state. Now she gets a turnout tsunami," tweeted Brad Todd, whose firm worked for one of Thompson's GOP primary rivals, Eric Hovde.

Who won August: Thompson

Latest poll: Thompson 50 percent, Baldwin 44 percent (Quinnipiac University, 1,190 likely voters, Aug. 15-21)

Ad Watch:

Only one new ad that we captured this week in support of Gov. Tommy Thompson by the American Chemistry Council. 

American Chemistry Council; 

The American Chemistry Council's ad talks about Thompson fighting to expand domestic energy production and growing small businesses.  

Support for Tommy Thompson (WI Senate)

YouTube Channels:

In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:

• Tammy Baldwin 
• Tommy Thompson   

Below please find a slide deck looking at trends in the four latest surveys that have been released and comparisons among them. 

• GOP Events are in RED
• DEM Events are in BLUE  

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