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US Senate Race Update
One of the benefits of being one of the states that will likely decide whether or not there is Democratic or Republican control of the United States Senate, besides all of the entertaining ads, is the abundance of public opinion polling data on the race. We have had four comprehensive statewide public opinion polls in the last week with Quinnipiac, Marquette, Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen.
Polling Update: Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll The Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll was released on Thursday morning with its second look at Wisconsin. In their baseline look at the Wisconsin US Senate race two weeks ago, Pre-Primary, they found that Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) and former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson (R-Madison) were tied at 47% - 47%. In their new survey, they have Governor Thompson leading Congresswoman Baldwin 50% to 44%, a 6% lead for Thompson:
- Thompson 50% (+3%) | Baldwin 44% (-3%)
The survey focuses on the presidential race, which is further discussed in that selection below. The only other non-presidential race related question that is asked is related to the job approval of Governor Scott Walker. In their 8/8/12 released survey, Governor Scott Walker had a 52% Approve to a 44% Disapprove on his job performance. Their latest survey has Gov. Walker at 53% Approve to 43% Disapprove. - Gov. Walker Job Approval 53% (+1%) | Job Disapproval 43% (-1%)
The complete survey can be found here: Marquette University Law School Poll
In Marquette's latest survey they have Gov. Thompson growing his pre-primary lead by 4 points, from 48% Thompson to 43% Baldwin, to 50% Thompson and 41% Baldwin among likely voters. Thompson has continually maintained a lead over Baldwin in the MU surveys, but this is Thompson's largest lead, and first time outside of the margin of error. Thompson's lead in the MU survey is now at +9%.
- Thompson 50% (+2%) | Baldwin 41%
The survey also looked at the favorability of the two candidates:
- Cong. Tammy Baldwin Favorability in the latest survey is 32% Favorable | 37% Unfavorable. Pre-Primary her favorability was at 30% Favorable | 35% Unfavorable.
- Gov. Tommy Thompson Favorability in the lastest survey is 50% Favorable | 38% Unfavorable. He has seen a significant improvement since the GOP Primary, when he had a 39% Favorable to 43% Unfavorable.
The survey also looked at Gov. Walker's Job Approval. In the current survey Marquette found that 50% Approve | 46% Disapprove of the way he is handling his job. In the last survey Gov. Walker's Approval was at 51% Approve | 44% Disapprove.
The complete Marquette survey can be found here. Public Policy Polling
In the Democratic-leaning PPP's latest survey they have Governor Thompson at a 5-point lead, in their first survey post the GOP Primary, 49% for Governor Thompson, 44% for Congresswoman Baldwin. Prior to the Primary, PPP had Thompson and Baldwin tied at 45% each.
- Thompson 49%| Baldwin 44%
The survey also looked at the favorability of the two candidates:
- Cong. Tammy Baldwin Favorability in the latest survey is 40% Favorable | 45% Unfavorable. Pre-Primary her favorability was at 37% Favorable | 39% Unfavorable.
- Gov. Tommy Thompson Favorability in the latest survey is 46% Favorable | 43% Unfavorable. He has seen a significant improvement since the GOP Primary, when he had a 40% Favorable to 47% Unfavorable.
The survey also looked at Governor Walker's Job Approval. In the current survey PPP found that 51% of likely voters approve of the job Governor Walker is doing, 46% disapprove of the job.
They survey also tested Governor Walker's performance versus a generic Democratic candidate in a hypothetical 2014 race. 51% of likely voters would choose Gov. Walker according to PPP, 46% would choose a generic Democratic.
The survey also tested the job performance of Congresswoman Baldwin and Governor Thompson's potential colleague, Republican US Senator Ron Johnson. A quarter of likely voters aren't able to rate Sen. Johnson, while those who can are almost evenly split; 38% Approve of the job he is doing, 37% Disapprove of the job he is doing. Likely voters were also evenly split on which party they want controlling the US Senate. 45% would like Republican control, 44% would like Democratic control of the US Senate.
The complete survey can be found here.
Rasmussen Reports In the Republican-leaning Rasmussen Report's first survey post the Republican Primary, they found a very large shift in the opinion of likely general election voters. Prior to the GOP Primary, Gov. Thompson trailed Cong. Baldwin by 7%, with Baldwin receiving 48% of the vote to Thompson's 41% of the vote. Post Primary, Rasmussen has the race at 54% for Thompson and 43% for Baldwin, essentially an 18-point shift in the race. - Thompson 54% | Baldwin 43%
The Rasmussen survey also tested the favorability of the two candidates, and found Thompson to have a significantly favorable status among likely voters and Baldwin receiving a mixed to slightly negative standing.
- Cong. Tammy Baldwin Favorability- 43% Favorable | 49% Unfavorable
- Gov. Tommy Thompson Favorability- 59% Favorable | 37% Unfavorable
The complete survey results can be found here.
Pollster Status of the Race: Pollster, a public opinion survey aggregation and analysis site, this week has the status of the race at approximately a 5% spread for Thompson: - Thompson 48.9%
- Baldwin 43.8%
A complete compilation of all 22 polls that Pollster is tracking can be found here. Real Clear Politics Status of the Race: Real Clear Politics, an online political website, also aggregates polling information and simply averages out the results. This differs from Pollster, which attempts to account for different methodologies among polling firms and historic election results in the various states. RCP has Thompson at an almost 8% lead (7.8%): - Thompson 50.8%
- Baldwin 43.0%
RCP's compilation can be found here. Polling Wrap Up Below please find a slide deck looking at trends in the four latest surveys that have been released and comparisons among them. 
US Senate General Election Polling Slide Deck Ad Watch: In what can be perceived as affirmation of where the status of polling in the race is, the Baldwin campaign and pro-Baldwin forces are up on the air early in the general election with messages targeting former Gov. Thompson as being out of touch with Wisconsin or beholden to Washington: Baldwin Campaign; "NO"
The Baldwin campaign released an ad saying that "Tommy Thompson isn't for you anymore" because he won't release his tax returns.  | | Baldwin Campaign- "No" |
"Choice" The Baldwin campaign released an ad comparing the Congresswoman's record on taxes versus the record of Governor Thompson.  | | Baldwin campaign- Choice |
Pro Baldwin/Anti-Thompson Ads "Riding High" Emily's List, through their political arm, Wisconsin Women Vote, released an ad about Gov. Thompson "going Washington."  | | Wisconsin WOMEN VOTE!: Riding High |
Anti Baldwin/Pro-Thompson Ads "With a T" Crossroads GPS, a conservative grassroots public policy organization, has an ad up critical of Congresswoman Baldwin's record on spending.  | | Crossroads GPS: "With a T" WI |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
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