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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl
Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: August 10, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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----> US Senate Primary Election Contest <---
Open to all clients and friends, we are hosting an election prediction contest for the US Senate Republican Primary. Winner gets an Amazon Kindle or $100 Amazon Gift Card.
What to do:
Before 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday, August 14th, email me (tony.langenohl@capitolconsultants.net) with your prediction for the winner of the GOP Primary.
The email must contain all four candidates and your projected % for each (whole numbers, no decimals) of the vote for each:
Example:
- Jeff Fitzgerald A%
- Eric Hovde B%
- Mark Neumann C%
- Tommy Thompson D%
Winner:
- The winner will be the one who identifies the Primary winner with the closest % of the vote to the actual vote.
- If a tie happens, than the tie breaker goes to who you picked to finish 2nd and their % and its closeness to the actual %, and so on until a winner.
Since this is just for fun, we will be using the AP posted results at 9:00 a.m. Wednesday for deciding the winner and putting some finality to the contest, since this is Wisconsin, and there could be a recount, etc... |
Know someone that would like to receive our Weekly Updates, please feel free to forward this e-mail and have them join our subscriber list below.
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US Senate Race Update
Only four days until the Republican Primary for the US Senate and we have more polls and more ads.
Polling Update: Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll The Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State Poll was released on Wednesday morning. No Primary voter questions were asked, but the survey, which will be conducted several times through the fall election, offered its baseline look at the US Senate General Election. Their results suggest it would be a tight race with three of the four potential GOP candidates and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin:
- Cong. Baldwin and former Gov. Tommy Thompson tied at 47 - 47 percent; (Tied)
- Cong. Baldwin at 47 percent to businessman Eric Hovde's 43 percent; (-4% Hovde)
- Cong. Baldwin at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann's 45 percent. (-3% Neumann)
- Cong. Baldwin at 51% to Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald's 39 percent. (-12% Fitzgerald)
The complete survey can be found here: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/08/us/politics/08poll-results-documents.html Marquette University Law School Poll Marquette University Law School, and their visiting professor Charles Franklin, released their final poll looking at the Republican US Senate Primary on Wednesday. In their survey former Governor Tommy Thompson continues to lead in the GOP Primary. Among likely GOP Primary voters (with leaners) Thompson leads businessman Eric Hovde by 9% and former Congressman Mark Neumann by 12%. Both Congressman Neumann and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald saw the biggest increases in support since July, +11% for Neumann and +9% for Fitzgerald. Republican Primary (with leaners) August Survey
- Thompson 33%
- Hovde 24%
- Neumann 21%
- Fitz 15%
- Undecided 7%
Thompson and Hovde's position in the polling remained largely unchanged since the July survey, while as mentioned above, Neumann and Fitzgerald saw double digit or near double digit increases. Republican Primary July Survey - Thompson 35%
- Hovde 23%
- Neumann 10%
- Fitzgerald 6%
- Undecided. 25%
Looking ahead to the General Election, MU has Thompson still as the only candidate leading Baldwin, up 1% from July, however Neumann is now tied with her and Hovde and Fitzgerald have moved closer 3% and 1% respectively.
- Thompson 48% v. Baldwin 43% (+5% Thompson)
- Baldwin 44% v. Neumann 44% (tied)
- Baldwin 45% v. Fitz 40% (-5% Fitzgerald)
- Badlwin 44% v. Hovde 41% (-3 Hovde%)
Pollster Status of the Race: Last week Pollster estimates that the race was at 28% for Hovde, 25.9% for Thompson, 16.4% for Neumann and 11.6% for Fitzgerald. This week Pollster estimates the race at: - Thompson 27.3% (+1.4%)
- Hovde 24.4% (-3.6%)
- Neumann 20.4% (+4%)
- Fitzgerald 13.2% (+1.6%)
Polling Wrap Up Similar to what I have done with other elections, below please find a presentation on the status of all the polling in the Republican Primary for the US Senate, including trends on the Primary from the Public Policy Polling polls (PPP) and the Marquette University Law School poll as well as the potential general election match-ups. Ad Watch: The campaigns are putting out their final sales pitches on themselves and their opponents: Thompson Campaign Transform Governor Thompson talks about how as Governor he helped transform Wisconsin and sparked the conservative movement.  | | Thompson campaign: Transform |
Pure Wisconsin
In this ad Thompson supporters talk about Thompson being 100% pure Wisconsin.
 | | Thompson campaign: Pure Wisconsin |
Margaret Farrow- Support Tommy Thompson (Radio)
In this ad, former Lieutenant Governor Margaret Farrow endorses Gov. Thompson and reads a statement Governor Walker made about the case for Tommy Thompson winning the GOP Primary.
 | | Margaret Farrow - Support Tommy Thompson |
Hovde Campaign
Something Different Hovde talks about how career politicians can't solve the problem in Washington, DC and how he doesn't want to make politics a career.  | | Hovde for Senate TV Ad: Something Different |
Negative Neumann Can't Rewrite History The Hovde campaign ad talks about the divisive gubernatorial primary campaign between Scott Walker and Mark Neumann and how now that Walker is popular, Neumann is acting like they are friends.  | | Negative Neumann Can't Rewrite History |
Yuck This ad from Hovde is critical of the negative campaign ads of his opponents, while criticizing them.  | | Hovde for Senate TV Ad: Yuck |
Neumann Campaign No new ads from Neumann were posted on YouTube channel Fitzgerald Campaign: No new ads for Fitzgerald this week. Americans for Job Security: Hovde Says & Does American's for Job Security released their second ad critical of Eric Hovde.  | | Says and Does |
Senate Action: The Conservative Senate Action Committee has an ad running suggesting that Mark Neumann is the candidate that would best shake up the US Senate.  | | Shake Up |
Baldwin for Senate: No new ads for Baldwin this week.
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
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Presidential Race Update
Wisconsin Presidential Polling:
Marquette and Quinnipiac both gave insight to the status of the presidential race in Wisconsin
this week, and both surveys were almost identical with their results.
Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS
In their first survey in Wisconsin of the cycle the Quinnipiac survey found President Obama to be ahead by 6%:
The complete results can be found here
The survey identified a significant gender gap, with women supporting President Obama 59% to 36% over Governor Romney (+23% Obama). Men are more supportive of Governor Romney, by a smaller 10% margin, 53% Romney to 43% Obama.
Marquette University Law School
In their 9th survey this year, MU found President Obama to be still leading in Wisconsin, but Governor Romney gained 3% on him since their July survey, but still trails by 5%.
The MU poll also picked up on the gender gap, with 56% of Women supporting Pres. Obama, to 37% Gov. Romney (+19% Obama), and nearly split with men, 48% for Gov. Romney and 44% for Pres. Obama.
Complete results here.
Pollster Estimate:
There is little change again in the Pollster estimate this week with the release of the two new polls, both President Obama and Governor Romney move up, .7% and .6% respectively.
- Obama 49.5% (+.7%)
- Romney 43.8% (+.6%)
National Presidential Polling: This week, Pollster has the race nationally going from a tie, 46% to 46%, to a slight lead for Pres. Obama:
- President Obama 47.2% (+1.2%)
- Governor Romney 45.3% (-0.7%)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
President Obama's current daily tracking job approval changed this week with a 1% increase in both approval and disapproval.
- President Obama Job Approval: 46.0% (+1%)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 48.0% (+1%)
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The Electoral College:
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP projection changed this week with two states moving into the lean Obama (Wisconsin and Michigan) and Missouri moving into the lean Romney column. According to their map, 100 electoral votes remain in the toss-up category.
- Obama-247 electoral votes
- Romney-191 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 100 electoral votes (8 states incl. CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH & VA)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map also changed this week with 8 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column. The only differences between the NY and RCP maps is the status of WI and NC. RCP has WI in Obama column, NY has WI toss-up still. RCP has NC in toss-up, NY has NC in Romney column.
- Obama- 237 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 95 electoral votes (8 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up 0.8% this week to 59%.
- Governor Romney chance of victory dropped 1.6%, to 38%
- FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
- President Obama chance of re-election improved .1% this week to 72.5%.
- Governor Romney's chance of victory dropped .1% to 27.5%.
Links: |
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Calendar of Events for Week of July 16th-20th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, August 13th
Fundraiser for Rep. Amy Sue Vruwink
4:30 p.m.
Ground Round Gill and Bar of Tomah,
201 Helen Walton Drive #1,
Tomah.
Fundraiser with Dave Obey
In the Heartland Cranberry Mall, Highway 21 Tomah
Co-Host: $500, Host: $250, Sponsor $100, Friend $50. All donations accepted.
RSVP Contact Info: Margie @ (928) 830-8875 margieb@wisdems.org
Friends of Vruwink, PO Box 124, Blenker, WI 54415
https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraiser/16019
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for 86th AD candidate Dennis Halkoski 6 p.m.
El Tequila Salsa,
2000 N. Rib Mountain Road,
Wausau.
Host - $250; Sponsor - $100; Friend - $50; Suggested Contribution - $50
RSVP: Frances at slezakf@yahoo.com.
Halkoski for Sate Assembly
4903 Tanya Street
Weston, WI 54476
Give Online: https://csecure.actblue.com/contribute/entity/30014?refcode=directory
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for Senator Frank Lasee Door Peninsula Winery 5806 Hwy. 42 Sturgeon Bay, WI 5:00 - 7:30 p.m. Host levels: $125, $250, $500, $750. $1,000 maximum contribution. All contributions are welcome. PAC accepted. Make checks payable to: Taxpayers for Lasee PO Box 5403 DePere, WI 54115
Tuesday, August 14th
**PARTISAN PRIMARY ELECTION DAY**
Fundraiser for Rep. Andy Jorgensen7 p.m. Ray's Family Restaurant, 1102 N. Main St., Edgerton. Host/Sponsor Levels: $20 Suggested Contribution RSVP Contact Info: AndyJorgensen43@gmail.com or (815)-474-3973 Committee Info: Checks Payable: Friends of Andy Jorgensen at 1424 Endl Boulevard, Fort Atkinson, WI 53538 Website: **No PAC Contributions
Wednesday, August 15th
Event for Assembly Republicans
5 p.m.
The Madison Club,
5 E. Wilson St.,
Madison.
Suggested Contribution of $500
Personal Contributions Accepted to:
Majority GOP Conduit
148 East Johnson Street
Madison, WI 53703
To RSVP or for questions: Contact Melanie Hubbard at mhubbard@wisgop.org or (608) 279-1275
Thursday, August 16th
Pig roast fundraiser for Rep. Amy Sue Vruwink 5 p.m.
The Cutler Farm,
2554 County Road N,
Milladore.
Host and Sponsor Levels: Co-Host: $500
Host: $250
$100 per plate
RSVP Contact Info: Margie @ (928) 830-8875 margieb@wisdems.org
Committee Info, including address: Friends of Vruwink
PO Box 124, Blenker, WI 54415
Give Online: https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraiser/16019
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for Farrow for Senate
Home of David and Patti Young,
N37W26719 Kopmeier Drive,
Pewaukee.
The event is open to the public and will run from 6:00 - 8:00 pm.
Event Hosts: $500. Suggested Contribution: $100/couple. All contributions gratefully accepted.
Please Make Checks Payable To:
Friends of Paul Farrow
P.O. Box 467
Pewaukee, WI 53072
RSVP appreciated but not required. To respond, please call 414-573-4663 or e-mail FarrowForSenate@gmail.com.
Friday, August 17th
No events scheduled |
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