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US Senate Race Update
There are only 8 days until the August 14th Republican Primary for the US Senate, and the candidates are leaving it all on the field in this hotly contested primary.
This past week there were two new polls released showing somewhat different pictures on the status of the race. A new poll will also be released tomorrow by Marquette University's Law School, Tuesday, August 7th, which will give yet another look at the status of this race. Polling Update: Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic-leaning survey firm, and We Ask America, an arm of the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and a Republican-leaning firm, both released surveys this past week showing the race very tight between former Governor Tommy Thompson and businessman Eric Hovde, however the polls differ on former Congressman Neumann's status in the race. Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald remains double-digits behind the leaders in both polls, but has gotten back into double digits of support. Speaker Fitzgerald lost ground in June and July in most polling. PPP (7/30-31): On the GOP Primary ballot question; The Republican candidates for Senate are Jeff Fitzgerald, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Tommy Thompson. If the election was today, who would you vote for? - Eric Hovde 28%
- Tommy Thompson 25%
- Mark Neumann 25%
- Jeff Fitzgerald 13%
- Undecided 9%
In comparing this to PPP's poll from early July (5th-8th), Hovde and Thompson are both down 3% and 4% respectively, and Neumann is up 10% and Fitzgerald up 4%, according to PPP's latest poll. The PPP poll also has all of the candidates unfavorability rating growing by a significant margin, and little to no change in favorability, with the exception of former Governor Thompson who PPP has losing Favorability; Hovde Favorability: In their 1st July survey, PPP had Hovde at a 50% Favorable, 9% Unfavorable. In the latest survey, PPP has Hovde at a 50% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable. Neumann Favorability: In the 1st PPP survey, Neumann was at a 43% Favorable, 21% Unfavorable. Now PPP has Neumann at 49% Favorable and 35% unfavorable. Fitzgerald Favorability: In early July PPP had Fitzgerald at 42% Favorable and 12% Unfavorable. The latest survey has him holding close to the same at 43% Favorable and slightly more Unfavorable at 21%. Thompson Favorability: In contrast to the other candidates who have maintained or grown their favorability, PPP has significant negative movement for Thompson, starting at 56% Favorable and 28% Unfavorable in early July, but dropping in their most recent survey to 47% Favorable and 41% Unfavorable. WE ASK AMERICA (7/30) We Ask America does not release as much of their data as PPP does, but their survey paints a more undecided electorate with two tiers of candidates. - PPP has only 1 out of 10 Republican Primary voters undecided, We Ask America has 1 out of 4 as being undecided.
- We Ask America suggests there is two tiers of candidates; Thompson and Hovde as the top tier, and Neumann and Fitzgerald in the second tier.
We Ask America asked 1,237 likely GOP voters in Wisconsin who they would vote for if the election were held today. The results were: - Tommy Thompson - 23%
- Eric Hovde - 23%
- Mark Neumann-17%
- Jeff Fitzgerald- 12%
- Undecided- 25%
More data on Tuesday:
On Tuesday, Marquette University Law School will release their 3rd look at the Republican Primary. We will update the results on our twitter feed @capconsultants as the results are announced.
For reference here is where MU has had the race at in their June 13-16 and July 5-8 surveys respectively:
- Tommy Thompson: 34% (June) 35% (July)
- Eric Hovde: 14% (June) 23% (July)
- Mark Neumann: 16% (June) 10% (July)
- Jeff Fitzgerald: 10% (June) 6% (July)
Pollster Status of the Race: With all publicly released polls in the GOP Primary included in their estimate (including both Hovde and Baldwin's internal released polls), Pollster estimates that the race is at 28% for Hovde, 25.9% for Thompson, 16.4% for Neumann and 11.6% for Fitzgerald. Control of the US Senate As mentioned previously, WI is one of 6 to 8 competitive US Senate Seats that could determine which party has control of the US Senate in the next session of Congress.
A new survey from the Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports this week that showed Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) leading all Republican candidates.
Baldwin v. Thompson
- Tammy Baldwin- 48%
- Tommy Thompson- 41%
In June, Thompson led Baldwin 52% to 41%. This would mark an 11% drop for Thompson and a 7% rise for Baldwin. Baldwin v. Hovde - Tammy Baldwin- 45%
- Eric Hovde- 42%
Hovde has dropped 2% since June when he was at 44% to Baldwin's 42%. Baldwin received a 3% increase in the latest survey. Baldwin v. Neumann - Tammy Baldwin- 48%
- Mark Neumann- 42%
Neumann has dropped 3% since June when he was at 45%. Baldwin rose 5% from 43% to 48%. Baldwin v. Fitzgerald - Tammy Baldwin - 47%
- Jeff Fitzgerald- 37%
Fitzgerald dropped 6% from 43% in June, while Baldwin rose 3% from 44% to 47%. With these results, Rasmussen Reports has now moved Wisconsin from a toss-up state to a lean Democratic state. Link to Poll
Ad Watch: This last week saw a flood of new advertising with all of the candidates now on the air, and several outside groups also running advertising in the race. Because of the volume of ads we are going to break them down by campaign, versus the timeline: Thompson Campaign Washington Game In this ad, the Thompson campaign hits Eric Hovde for "playing the Washigonton game" for the last 24 years a hedge-fund manager living in Washington, DC.  | | Thompson-Washington Games |
Strong Armed
In this ad, the Thompson campaign hits Eric Hovde for contributing to former Democratic Governor Jim Doyle on the same day that Gov. Doyle vetoed a property tax freeze in 2005.
 | | Thompson campaign- Strong Armed |
Nothing There
In this ad, the Thompson campaign hits Eric Hovde on not paying his property tax bill in Madison and being taken to court.
 | | Thompson campaign-Nothing There |
Hovde Campaign
The Hovde campaign released an ad critical of Thompson and Neumann for attacking him and accusing the other two candidates of slinging mud.  | | Hovde: Missed Me |
Neumann Campaign Hovde in His Own Words The Neumann campaign criticizes Hovde for what they argue is his support for bank bailouts and raising taxes.  | | Neumann: Hovde in His Own Words |
Conservative Before It Was Cool The Neumann campaign talks about his record of serving in Congress as a Conservative and his pledge to challenge the Obama Administration's policies.  | | Mark Neumann: Conservative Before it Was Cool |
We Did Build It The Neumann campaign talks about his balanced budget plan and his plans to repeal "ObamaCare."  | | Neumann Campaign: We Did Build It |
Fitzgerald Campaign: Strong The Fitzgerald campaign released their first ad of the campaign talk about the Speaker's record of accomplishment over the last session and having the "strength and courage" to make tough decisions in Washington.  | | Fitzgerald-Strong TV Ad |
Americans for Job Security: Hovde Stimulus American's for Job Security released their first two ads of the campaign cycle critical of companies owned by Hovde receiving $2 million in stimulus spending.  | | AJS: Hovde Stimulus |
National Club for Growth: Change The National Club for Growth started running an ad critical of Hovde and Thompson and supportive of former Congressman Neumann.  | | "Change" (WI-Sen) |
Baldwin for Senate: Engines While the Republican candidates are still focused on the August 14th GOP Primary, Congresswoman Baldwin has released her latest ad called Engines, highlighting her record in Washington.  | | Engines |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
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