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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Tony Langenohl Capitol Consultants, Inc. & Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: July 20th, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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Democrats take control of State Senate
After two waves of recall elections targeting 9 Republican Senators and 3 Democratic Senators, control of the Wisconsin State Senate has changed from 19 Republicans and 14 Democrats in January of 2011, to 17 Republicans and 16 Democrats in August 2011 to 17 Democrats and 16 Republicans in July 2012, with a little over three months until the next election when 16 State Senators are up for election. On Tuesday the State Senate came into session for the official transfer of power, with Senator Mark Miller (D-Monona) becoming the Majority Leader and Senator Fred Risser (D-Madison) becoming the Senate President. Majority Leader Miller released the following statement on the
 | | Sen. Majority Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona) |
transfer of power including their intent to try and bring the Legislature back into session prior to the next session beginning in January 2013: "The most pressing issue before us is getting Wisconsin back to work. It's time to move Wisconsin from the back of the pack on job creation. It just can't wait until next year. We need to take steps now to improve job opportunities in our state..."
Miller noted that there are many items the Senate can still do yet this year and is hopeful everyone will start working together immediately to create jobs in Wisconsin.
"There are many things we can do now to spark job creation such as investing in training programs in our technical colleges to get employers the high-skilled workforce they have been asking for and directing the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation to focus on the communities with the highest unemployment. I hope Governor Walker and the Assembly Leadership will work with us to take action immediately on job creation," said Miller. ( Full release can be found here) Senate Minority Leader Scott Fitzgerald released the following statement on the transition in power of the State Senate:
 | | Sen. Minority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) |
"Today, the Senate convened for the purpose of transitioning power. After two summers of recalls and $20 million of taxpayer dollars, the Madison protestor-fueled recalls have resulted in the unprecedented act of switching control of the Senate while not in session. However, with all that Senate Republicans have done this past session to put Wisconsin on the right path, I am confident that we will regain the majority this fall so we can keep moving Wisconsin forward. ( Full statement can be found here) With a change in power also comes a restructuring of the Committee in the State Senate. The majority of which will likely not meet during this off-session period, however statutory committees like the Joint Committee on Finance will meet and take action on fiscal issues between now and the end of the year. The new make up of the Senate members of the Finance Committee are: Joint Committee on Finance (blue=Democrat/red=Republican) Co-Chair: Senator Lena Taylor
Vice-Chair: Senator Dave Hansen
Members: Senator Bob Jauch
Senator John Lehman
Senator Jennifer Shilling
Senator Chris Larson
Senator Alberta Darling
Senator Luther Olson
A complete list of the new Democratic-led Committees can be found here.
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Walker Administration Announces Staffing Changes
On Wednesday Governor Scott Walker announced some significant staffing changes in his Administration, putting additional focus on economic development by moving his Deputy Secretary Ryan Murray to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC) as Chief Operating Officer (COO) and Deputy Secretary and replacing Murray with Republican State Senator Rich Zipperer (R-Pewaukee), who will serve both as Deputy Chief of Staff and Senior Counsel to Governor Walker. Murray is taking over the position of current COO Mike Klonsinski who is moving to the Chief Financial Officer position. Jocelyn Webster, who served as Communications Director for the Department of Administration will now be the Communications Director in the Governor's Office.
Gov. Walker released the following statement regarding the moves:
"Moving into the second half of my first term, I am redeploying administration resources to ensure we have the strongest team possible to help the people of our state create jobs.
Evaluating the strengths and talents of administration staff will ensure we can constantly reform state government to improve services and operate efficiently. The newly assembled team will help Wisconsin continue down the path of prosperity."
Ryan Murray-Chief Operating Officer and Deputy Secretary of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation  | | Dep. Chief of Staff Ryan Murray |
Murray served as the Policy and Legislative Director and deputy Chief of Staff during the first year and a half of Governor Walker's term. Murray played a key role during the transition in 2010 helping to develop Walker's job creation policy agenda. He previously served as a chief of staff and communications director in the Wisconsin State Senate. He will begin his new role on July 30th.
Rich Zipperer-Deputy Chief of Staff and Senior Counsel for Governor Walker
 | | Sen. Rich Zipperer (R-Pewaukee |
Zipperer previously represented the 33rd District in the State Senate and served two terms in the State Assembly. Throughout his time in the Legislature Zipperer served on a number of committees including the Joint Committee on Finance. Additionally he is a member of the Pewaukee Chamber of Commerce, the State Bar of Wisconsin, and is a board member of Bethany Christian Services Adoption & Orphan Care Agency of Wisconsin. He will begin his new role on August 6th.
Jocelyn Webster-Communications Director for Governor Walker
Webster previously served as the communications director for the Wisconsin Department of Administration, where she helped coordinate all state agency communications. Prior to that she managed government and public affairs for 7-Eleven, Inc., served as Chris Christie's deputy communications director for his successful gubernatorial campaign, and worked in a variety of communications and advocacy roles for federal government and non-profit organizations. Her first day will be July 24th.
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US Senate Race Update Last week it was polling numbers driving the conversation, this week it is campaign finance numbers driving the conversation.
Finance numbers: Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin Baldwin's campaign reported that she raised $2.2 million in the last reporting period, the most of any Wisconsin candidate, and almost $3.5 million cash-on-hand. Her campaign also stated that the average donation was approximately $68 and 90% of the donors contributed $100 or less. Former Governor/Secretary Tommy Thompson Thompson's campaign reported raising $833,912 in the last reporting period, the most of any Republican candidate. The campaign also reported having $764,050 on hand. Thompson's report also showed that he spent $859,566 in the last quarter. Former Congressman Mark Neumann The Neumann campaign reported raising about $733,000 during the last reporting period. Neumann's report also showed he currently has $789,532 in cash on hand, slightly more than Thompson. The Journal Sentinel reported in their coverage of the released of finance data that "Neumann has benefitted from spending of nearly $700,000 by Club for Growth, an anti-tax group, on ads that have attacked Thompson and Hovde. Club for Growth has endorsed Neumann." Hedge Fund Manager/Community Banker Eric Hovde
The Hovde campaign reported raising nearly $240,000 in the last quarter, however his real fundraising impact was putting an additional $2.25 million of his own money into his campaign in the last quarter, putting the total amount of money that he has put into his campaign to date at $4 million. During the last reporting period Hovde spent $4 million on advertising and had a cash-on-hand balance of $546,867. Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald's campaign announced that they had raised $41,032 in the last reporting period. Control of the US Senate With a third of the US Senate up for re-election this year, national political observers have keyed in on 6 to 8 races that they believe will decide which party controls the US Senate for the 2013-2014 session. One nationally known political observer and commentator, Professor Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia Center for Politcs, released his most recent observations on the status of the US Senate races in his online publication "Sabato's Crystal Ball." Sabato believes that the state of the race right now is that Democrats are retaining/winning 47 seats and Republicans are retaining/winning 47 seats and six seats are in play that will decide which party controls the Senate. In order to hit the magic 51, according to Sabato handicapping of 6 seats in play, one party will have to win four of these six races: - Florida- Sen. Bill Nelson (D) vs. winner of GOP Primary (likely Rep. Connie Mack)
- Massachusetts- Sen. Scott Brown (R) vs. former Obama Administration official Elizabeth Warren
- Missouri- Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. winner of GOP Primary.
- Montana- Sen. Jon Tester (D) v. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R)
- Virginia- Former VA Gov. Tim Kaine (D) and former Sen. George Allen (R)
- Wisconsin- Cong. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. winner of GOP Primary
Sabato writes descriptions of the six races in his report, below is the excerpt he wrote on Wisconsin: - Wisconsin: As noted above, if Tommy Thompson wins the primary, he would start as the favorite (as in, we could see moving this race to leans Republican). But if any of the others win, the race stays a toss-up, and might even tilt to Tammy Baldwin. ADVANTAGE: NONE Ad Watch: As the August 14th Primary date closes in, the ad war is starting to heat up with each campaign throwing up new radio and television ads this week: Thompson Campaign- Road to Repeal The Thompson campaign released a new ad touting Governor Thompson's accomplishments and noting that he would be the 51st Republican in the Senate, giving the Republicans the majority and the ability to "repeal ObamaCare." Hovde Campaign- Mud The Hovde campaign released an ad critical of Thompson and Neumann for attacking him and accusing the other two candidates of slinging mud.  | | Hovde-Mud |
Neumann Campaign- Cocaine & Quail Don't Mix Neumann touts his plan to cut trillions in spending without raising taxes and criticizes the "wasteful spending" of the Obama Administration by highlighting dollars given to research the effects cocaine has on the breeding habits of Quail.  | | Neumann-Cocaine and Quail Don't Mix |
Neumann Campaign-Hovde Supports High Speed Rail & Bailouts The Neumann campaign goes after Eric Hovde for supporting stimulus funding for high-speed rail and bailouts for banks "like Obama" and for financially supporting Governor Jim Doyle's campaign.  | | Neumann-Hovde Supports High Speed Rail & Bailouts |
Hovde Campaign- Response to negative Attack from Mark Neumann The Hovde campaign highlights Neumann's votes for earmarks, "including bridge to nowhere," and taking stimulus money into his green energy company and "lobbying congress for more"while rebutting the attacks Club for Growth made against Hovde.  | | Hovde-Eric Hovde response to negative attack from Mark Neumann |
Fitzgerald Campaign- (Radio) Proven In his first ad of the campaign, Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald talks about his record of working with Governor Walker over the last year to reform Wisconsin and his "proven conservative credentials."  | | Jeff Fitzgerald - Proven |
Club for Growth-Worse The National Club for Growth, which has endorsed Mark Neumann, has begun airing an ad critical of both Thompson and Hovde.  | | Club for Growth-"Only Worse" |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels:
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Congressional Race Update
In addition to one of the most competitive US Senate races in the country, Wisconsin has two congressional races that are on the national "watch lists."
In the National Journal's Hotline's first congressional race ranking of the election cycle two Wisconsin races made the top 50 of races most likely to switch partisan control. Freshmen Congressmen Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble came in at #37 and #50 respectively. The article ranks the top 75 races and can be found here.
Below are the excerpts on Cong. Duffy and Ribble:
37. WI-07 (R, Rep. Sean Duffy): This is longtime Democratic territory, but Duffy has recovered after some major early missteps. Still, former state senator and local newscaster Pat Kreitlow has polish that Duffy's last opponent lacked. This race is taking its time coming together.
50. WI-08 (R, Rep. Reid Ribble): Although the seat has served as a bellwether district over the last decade, northeastern Wisconsin served as a launchpad for Gov. Scott Walker in the June gubernatorial recall, giving Ribble an extra sense of security heading into his first reelection effort. Stuart Rothenberg, of the Rothenberg Political Report, a well-known political handicapper came out with his own update of the status of the competitive House races and ranked the WI 7th and 8th as follows:
WI-07 (R, Rep. Sean Duffy): Lean Republican WI-08 (R, Rep. Reid Ribble): Favored Republican All of Rothenberg's rankings can be found here.
Fundraising Updates:
Finance reports were released this week for the House races. Here are a couple of highlights of note:
- 1st CD Cong. Paul Ryan has the most cash-on-hand of any candidate, nearly $5.5 million.
- 4th CD Cong. Gwen Moore has the least cash-on-hand of any incumbent, only $97k.
- Both targeted Congressmen Duffy and Ribble have over $1 million cash-on-hand a piece and each has about a $.5 million advantage over their challengers.
Below is a compilation of the data from Wispolitics.com.
1st CD -GOP Rep. Paul Ryan $956,642 raised, $754,865 spent, $5,408,958 cash on hand.
-Dem Rob Zerban $355,643 raised, $226,050 spent, $557,522 cash on hand. $100,000 in debts. 2nd CD -Dem Mark Pocan, D-Madison, raised $248,634, spent $140,589 and had $453,915 cash on hand. Roys, D-Madison, reported $128,248 raised, $110,985 spent and $190,120 cash on hand with $20,000 in debts.
3rd CD -Dem Rep. Ron Kind $251,644 raised, $133,683 spent, $853,724 cash on hand. $4,500 in debts. -Republican Ray Boland $23,846 raised, $23,332 spent, $10,641 cash on hand. 4th CD -Dem Rep. Gwen Moore $150,911 raised, $90,476 spent, $97,545 cash on hand. -Republican Dan Sebring $9,641 raised, $6,352 spent, $3,686 cash on hand. 5th CD -GOP Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner $95,329 raised, $111,102 spent, $442,427 cash on hand. -Dem Dave Heaster no report filed. 6th CD -Republican Rep. Tom Petri $129,217 raised, $132,094 spent, $978,688 cash on hand. -Dem Joe Kallas no report filed. 7th CD -Republican Rep. Sean Duffy $378,056 raised, $196,379 spent, $1,147,757 cash on hand. -Dem Pat Kreitlow $215,996 raised, $130,686 spent, $450,826 cash on hand. 8th CD -Republican Rep. Reid Ribble $401,690 raised, $127,182 spent, $1,001,013 cash on hand. $69,989 in debts. -Dem Jamie Wall $240,358 raised, $80,327 spent, $542,206 cash on hand. $49,000 in debts.
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Capitol News
New Jobs #s released
The State Department of Workforce Development (DWD) released new jobs numbers on Thursday and they show Wisconsin lost an estimated 11,700 private-sector jobs in June and the unemployment rate climbed to 7% from 6.8% in May. The Walker Administration continues to take exception with the way these job data estimates are generated by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On the heels of the release of this new data, DWD Secretary Reggie Newson wrote to BLS Dep. Commissioner John Galvin asking the BLS to reconsider changes it used in the most recent annual benchmarking process, and to revert to the previous method that had yielded more consistent estimates. Secretary Newson noted that the BLS numbers were off by 50,511 in 2011 for Wisconsin.
From Newson's letter: "We strongly believe the integrity of the CES data series would be dramatically improved if the BLS were to use three quarters of data for its next annual benchmarking process. Based on feedback from other states, we are not alone in this belief." ( Link to Newson's press release)
Senate Majority Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona) cited the jobs report as "further proof" that a special session on jobs is needed prior to the November elections or the beginning of the 2013-2014 Legislation Session.
"Wisconsin workers shouldn't have to wait until next year for the legislature to get to work on job creation. They want jobs now and they don't care about whether or not there are elections coming up. I hope Republicans leaders in the Assembly and Senate will work with us to take immediate action on job creation this year," [Senate Majority Leader Mark] Miller concluded. (Link to complete press release)
Link to DWD Press Release reporting out the latest BLS numbers.
Judge issues permanent injunction on Voter ID Law
Dane County Circuit Court Judge David Flanagan issued a permanent injunction against Wisconsin's Voter ID law, stopping the law from taking effect and making it very likely that the law will not be in place for the November presidential elections.
In his order, Judge Flanagan concluded that the law creates a "serious" impairment to voting and was unconvinced that there was voter fraud the necessitated the law change noting that the law is "largely needless."
"Act 23 addresses a problem which is very limited, if indeed it exists. It does not appear to recognize or to account for the difficulty its demands impose upon indigent and elderly citizens who are eligible under the constitution to vote. It offers no flexibility, no alternative to prevent the exclusion of a constitutionally qualified voter. Given the sacred, fundamental interest at issue, it is clear that Act 23, while perhaps addressing a legitimate concern, is not sufficiently narrow to avoid needless and significant impairment of the right to vote. The enactment steps beyond the proper authority of the legislature and is in violation of the Wisconsin Constitution, Article III, Section 1."
Wisconsin Attorney General JB Van Hollen has announced that he will appeal the ruling.
"My office will be appealing the Dane County Circuit Court's decision in NAACP v. Walker, et al. Voter identification helps ensure election integrity. It is a measure that protects the right to vote. And similar election integrity reforms have been upheld as constitutional by the United States Supreme Court.
I believe that Wisconsin's law complies with the state and federal constitutions and should be allowed to govern elections in this state. So long as the injunctions remain in place in NAACP v. Walker, et al., and League of Women Voters v. Walker, et al., that will not occur. An appeal is necessary to vindicate the law, and we look forward to presenting our arguments to the appellate court."
Judge Flanagan's order can be found here
Attorney General Van Hollen's statement on the ruling can be found here
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Presidential Race Update
Wisconsin Presidential Polling: We Ask America is the only poll looking at Wisconsin that came out this week.
We Ask America The last time We Ask America looked at Wisconsin in June, they had President Obama receiving 48%, Governor Romney 43% and 9% undecided. This month they have the race at: The complete results can be found here.
Pollster Estimate:
There is little change in the Pollster estimate this week with the release of the We Ask America poll, Obama just moves up .1% from 48.9% and Romney dropping .6% from 43.9% to 43.3%.
- Obama 49.0% (+.1%)
- Romney 43.3% (-.6%)
National Presidential Polling: After both candidates dropping in national polling last week, this week Pollster has President Obama's numbers remaining stagnant on the ballot test at 46.3%, no change, and Governor Romney gaining 1.2%, to 45%:
- President Obama 46.3% (no change)
- Governor Romney 45.0% (+1.2% change)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
President Obama's current daily tracking job approval changed this week however with no net improvement or decline. Obama moved up 1% in both approval and disapproval.
- President Obama Job Approval: 46.0% (+1%)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 48.0% (+1%)
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The Electoral College: No change on either RealClearPolitics.com or the NYTimes projection sites on the race to capture 270 electoral votes this week. This is the 2nd week in a row with no changes on the map.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP project remains the same this week with no projected movement on the electoral college map. According to their map, 136 electoral votes including Wisconsin's 10, remain in the toss-up category.
- Obama-221 electoral votes
- Romney-181 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 136electoral votes (11 states incl. WI)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map also stayed unchanged this week with 9 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column.
- Obama- 217 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 115 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up 1.9% this week to 57%, up from 55.1% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory dropped by less than 1%, down 0.8% to 40.7%, compared to 41.5% last week.
- FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
- President Obama chance of re-election improved 1.1% this to 66.7%, compared to 65.6% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory dropped 1.1% to 33.3%, from 34.4% last week.
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Weekly Radio Addresses
The State of Wisconsin has partnered with the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to provide a weekly radio from the Governor and a Democratic response. Below please find the transcripts to both of these radio addresses and here is a link to the
Governor Scott Walker
 | | Gov. Scott Walker |
Hi, this is Scott Walker. For months I've heard from employers who want to hire more workers, but who can't find properly trained individuals. In response we put together a coalition of Wisconsin's technical colleges, the Wisconsin Covenant Foundation and private businesses to help this skills gap. This week the coalition produced tangible results. I visited Moraine Park Technical College in Fond du Lac, where we announced a partnership that will result in job specific training for four area employers. We announced the creation of two 15-week Manufacturing Skills Academy boot camps; one for machine operation and one for welder training. Upon completion, each participant will receive an Entry Level Welding Certificate or a Computer Numerical Control Machine Operator Certificate. Ultimately these boot camps will result in 108 new jobs for skilled workers. These training programs were created through a grant from the Wisconsin Workforce Partnership Program, which is privately funded by the Wisconsin Covenant Foundation. This grant will help bridge the gap between people who want jobs and employers who need skilled workers in the Fond du Lac area. I look forward to announcing many more employment and workforce successes all across Wisconsin as we continue to pair those seeking work with employers who are looking to hire.
Democratic Weekly Radio Address: |
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Calendar of Events for Week of July 16th-20th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, July 23rd
Fundraiser for Dave Hansen
"The Real Brat Summit" 5-7 pm Pamperin Park 2477 Shawano Ave Green Bay, WI Pac contributions accepted $50.00 is suggested or whatever you can afford
Fundraiser for Rep. Jason Fields
5:30 p.m. Ryan Braun's Grafitto, 102 Water St., Milwaukee. $100 suggested contribution Sponsorships Available Make checks payable to: "Jason Fields for Assembly" 5686 North 60th Street Milwaukee, WI 53218 Fundraiser for Rep. Jeff Fitzgerald 5:30 p.m. 5101 N. Cumberland Blvd., Whitefish Bay. You are cordially invited to a fundraising event in support of Wisconsin Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin Suggested Donation: $50 Please RSVP to Lisa Fix Ph: 414.839.8290 or email: lisa.fix@fitzgeraldforwisconsin.com Please make checks payable to: Fitzgerald for U.S. Senate
Tuesday, July 24th
Fundraiser for Rep. Dale Kooyenga & 13th AD candidate Rob Hutton
4:30 p.m. Mayfair Woods Business & Tech Center, 10700 Research Drive, Suite 100, Wauwatosa. Checks can be sent to: Citizens for Kooyenga 15365 St. Therese Blvd Brookfield, WI 53005 &/ or Citizens for Rob Hutton 17785 Marseille Drive Brookfield, WI 53045
Fundraiser for Rep. Sondy Pope-Roberts
5 p.m. The Draft House, 1010 Enterprise Drive, Verona. Hors d'oeuvres provided. Suggested Contributions: $250, $150, $50 Checks payable to: Friends of Sondy Pope-Roberts P O Box 930461, Verona, WI 53593 *All Contributions Welcomed
Wednesday, July 25th
Sen. Alberta Darling garden to garden tour
3:30 p.m. 3:30-6:00 pm Garden Tour 6:00-7:30 Reception at the Kubly's More information coming Host Levels: $500/$250/$100 PAC currently accepted Checks are made payable to: Friends of Alberta Darling 1478 Noridge Trail, Port Washington, WI 53074 Thursday, July 26th
Reception for AG J.B. Van Hollen
4:30 p.m. Fred & Fuzzy's Waterfront Grill, 10620 Little Sister Road, Sister Bay. Hosts: $1,000, $500, & $250 Guests: $50 per person Please make checks payable to: Van Hollen for Attorney General Contact: Mike Austin at (608) 661-0777 or mike@persuasionpartners.com
Friday, July 27th
Fundraiser for Rep. Howard Marklein
7 a.m. Ludlow Mansion, 1421 Mansion Drive, Monroe. With Special Guest U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan Suggestion Contribution $100 per person All Individual Donation Gratefully Accepted Please Make Checks Payable To: Taxpayers for Marklein S11665 Soeldner Rd. Spring Green, WI 53588 RSVP by July 20th Appreciated.
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