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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: July 13th, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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US Senate Race Update
After all the political attention this year had been focused on the June 5th recalls, the US Senate race got its first real week in the spotlight with two publicly released polls and candidates starting to light up the airwaves.
The Polls
Both the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) and Marquette University Law School (MU Law) released their statewide polls this week. Both polls varied a bit on who was winning the GOP Primary and the General Election ballot, but were consistent that Republican US Senate Candidate Eric Hovde's signinifcant ad campaign has been successful in raising his awareness amongst the electorate and vaulting into the top half of the GOP Primary field. More on Hovde's ad campaign in the ad section below.
Although both polls were conducted over the same time period, the PPP poll was released on Tuesday and MU Law poll was released on Wednesday, so we will look at them in the order they were released.
Public Policy Polling Results
In the GOP Primary, PPP had Hovde taking a slight lead over Thompson, almost equally splitting 60% of the GOP Primary voters, with 16% undecided in their choice. Neumann and Fitzgerald split the remaining 25% of the vote. This is the first poll PPP did with Hovde in the race and their most recent look since March.
GOP Primary (July 5th-8th, 2012)
- Hovde 31%
- Thompson 29%
- Neumann 15%
- Fitzgerald 9%
This is the first publicly released survey that shows Hovde leading Thompson. In a June 19th-21st survey, Congresswoman Baldwin's campaign released an internal poll that showed Hovde up by 1% over Thompson, 27% to 26%. A week later Hovde's campaign released a contradictory poll that showed Thompson leading Hovde by 5%, 34% for Thompson and 29% for Hovde.
Looking at the November General Election match-ups between Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin and the GOP field, PPP has Hovde besting Baldwin by 1%, tied with Thompson and ahead of both Fitzgerald and Neumann by 4%.
Ballot Test (July 5th-8th, 2012)
- Hovde 45% v. Baldwin 44%
- Thompson 45% v. Baldwin 45%
- Baldwin 45% v. Neumann 41%
- Baldwin 46% v. Fitzgerald 42%
In their May survey for the Daily Kos, PPP had Thompson, Neumann and Hovde all +4% on Baldwin, and Fitzgerald -7%.
- Thompson 47% v. Baldwin 43%
- Neumann 46% v. Baldwin 42%
- Baldwin 47% v. Fitzgerald 40%
- Hovde 45% v. Baldwin 41%
Marquette University Law School Poll Results:
The MU Law School Poll was conducted during the same time period as the PPP poll but came out of the field with differing results than the PPP survey. The MU poll showed that Thompson still maintains a significant lead in the GOP Primary (12% over Hovde), but like the PPP poll Hovde has cemented himself into the top half of the GOP Primary competitors. The MU Law poll also shows that Thompson is the only GOP candidate to lead Baldwin, leading by 4%, and Baldwin leading the other potential GOP opponents by between 3% and 6%.
GOP Primary (July 5th-8th)
Former Governor Thompson still leads the field in the GOP Primary with 35% of the vote, +1% since the June survey. Hovde has jumped into second place with 23% of the vote, up from 14%. Neumann saw his support almost drop by half going down 6%, from 16% to 10% and Fitzgerald dropped 4%, from 10% to 6%.
GOP Primary
- Thompson 35%
- Hovde 23%
- Neumann 10%
- Fitzgerald 6%
- Undecided 25%
The MU Law poll also shows that the General Election race is tightening up with Thompson the only Republican candidate leading Baldwin, but with a tighter margin than in the previous survey. His lead has dropped from 8% to 4% over Baldwin. Baldwin has gone from tied with Neumann to a slight 3% lead, and she leads both Hovde and Fitzgerald by 6%.
Ballot Test (July 5th-8th) - Thompson 45% v. Baldwin 41%
- Baldwin 43% v. Neumann 40%
- Baldwin 43% v. Fitzgerald 37%
- Baldwin 44% v. Hovde 38%
Watch the video of MU visiting Charles Franklin walking through the MU Poll results here:
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Ad Watch
We mentioned earlier that the Hovde Campaign had engaged in a very aggressive advertising campaign and through the help of our friend Ken Goldstein, President of the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), we get a real clear look at just how aggressive his advertising campaign has been. Ken's analysis starts at the day after the Recall Election (June 6th) and goes through Wednesday, July 11th. Here is what he found: Spots by the US Senate Candidates during that period: - Eric Hovde- 2,051
- Tammy Baldwin 1,265
- Tommy Thompson- 253
- Mark Neumann - 191
- Jeff Fitzgerald- O
Looking at it another way: - 82% of all Republican US Senate candidate ads have been Eric Hovde's
- 55% of all US Senate candidate ads (incl. Baldwin) have been Hovde's
Here is the complete CMAG Report which also includes analysis of the third party groups that are also running ads in the US Senate race. CMAG tracks advertising expenditure data for political, public affairs and issue advocacy professionals. If you are interested in learning more about their services, please feel free to contact Ken directly at:
Kenneth GoldsteinPresident, CMAG
Kantar Media | Intelligence1055 Thomas Jefferson Street, NW | Suite 200
Washington, DC 20007
Main: 202-238-3730
Below are the new ads running in the US Senate as well as the competitive Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional District to replace Cong. Tammy Baldwin race over the last week and a half. Mark Neumann for Senate: ObamaCare US Senate candidate Mark Neumann's first campaign tv ad focuses on "ObamaCare" and deficits and that Neumann if elected will stand up to President Obama.  | | Neumann for Senate: ObamaCare |
Wisconsin Women Vote- Working For Women Vote, a project of Emily's List, who's mission is to dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women to office, launched a new ad in Wisconsin critical of Tommy Thompson and Eric Hovde and in support of Tammy Baldwin.  | | Wisconsin WOMEN VOTE: Working For |
Baldwin for Senate- Rock
The Baldwin for Senate campaign released a new ad this week talking about protecting Medicare and Baldwin's personal experience of taking care of her grandmother.
 | | Baldwin for Senate-Rock |
Thompson for Senate (Radio)- 51
The Thompson campaign released a new radio this week discussing his accomplishments as Governor, plans to get the economy going and how he will be the 51st vote to help repeal ObamaCare,
 | | Tommy Thompson for Senate - 51 |
Hovde for Senate Web Campaign Ad- WASTE Attacks Hovde
The Hovde campaign released a spoof web ad mock attacking Hovde for threatening to change the way things are done in Washington.
 | | W.A.S.T.E. Attacks Hovde |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels: 2nd Congressional District Ads
Pocan for Congress- Lessons
In his first ad before the Aug. 14th Democratic Primary to replace Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Madison) discusses the lessons he learned from his parents owning their own business and him owning and operating his own union print shop for standing up for his constituents.
 | | "Lessons" from a proven, progressive leader -- Vote August 14th! |
Roys for Congress- Cave
State Rep. Kelda Helen Roys (D-Madison) released two ads in her bid for the Democratic nomination to the 2nd Congressional District. In the first ad she talks about how some lawmakers caved and went along with Gov. Walker's tax breaks for corporations, but she stood up to him.
 | | Kelda Helen Roys - "Cave" |
Roys for Congress-Experience
In her second ad, Roys touts her experience leading a Pro-Choice organization and standing up to Governor Walker, and that she doesn't make "backroom deals."
 | | Kelda Helen Roys - "Experience" |
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Presidential Race Update
Wisconsin Presidential Polling: Both PPP & MU Law had numbers on the Presidential race in Wisconsin:
PPP Poll
The last time PPP looked at the Presidential race in Wisconsin was in May as part of a Daily Kos survey, that Survey had Obama at 47% and Romney at 46%.
MU Law
In June the MU Law Poll had Obama leading 49% to 43%. Obama gains 2% this month while Romney remains at 43%.
Pollster Estimate:
With the release of two polls this week showing Obama gaining in both, the Pollster estimate also moves up 2% for Obama, from 46.9% where it was holding since June to 48.9% and Romney dropping 1.6% from 44.5% to 43.9%.
- Obama 48.9% (+2%)
- Romney 43.9% (-1.6%)
National Presidential Polling: Both candidates drop slightly this week in National polling. Both Obama and Romney drop -0.7%:
- President Obama 46.3% (-0.7% change)
- Governor Romney 43.8% (-0.7% change)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
President Obama's current daily tracking job approval remained the same as last week with a net -2%, 45% approve v. 47% disapprove.
- President Obama Job Approval: 45.0% (no change)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 47% (no change)
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The Electoral College: No change on either RealClearPolitics.com or the NYTimes projection sites on the race to capture 270 electoral votes this week. This is the 2nd week in a row with no changes on the map.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP project remains the same this week with no projected movement on the electoral college map. According to their map, 136 electoral votes including Wisconsin's 10, remain in the toss-up category.
- Obama-221 electoral votes
- Romney-181 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 136electoral votes (11 states incl. WI)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map also stayed unchanged this week with 9 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column.
- Obama- 217 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 115 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up 0.1% this week to 55.1%, up from 55% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory improved by less than 1%, up 0.9% to 41.5%, compared to 40.6% last week.
- FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
- President Obama chance of re-election dropped 2.7% this to 65.6%, compared to 68.3% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory was up 2.7% to 34.4%, from 31.7% last week. This change stopped a 2-week -6% slide for Romney.
Links: |
Control of the Wisconsin State Senate
Senate District 21 (Racine)On Tuesday, Sen. Van Wanggaard announced that he will not legally challenge the results of the election and vowed to be a candidate for the Senate again when the seat is up for election in November 2014. In his statement, Sen. Wanggaard said the following:
"Despite pleas from around the state to challenge the election, it is not in the best interests of Racine, or Wisconsin, at this time. Now is the time to focus on gaining the state senate back in November, winning Wisconsin's U.S. Senate seat, and electing Governor Romney as President.
"The count of the ballots - those cast appropriately and those that may not have been - shows my opponent with more votes. I hope John Lehman learned the lesson of his defeat in 2010, and pursues a more job-friendly agenda in office.
"As for me, I have spent my entire adult life in service to our community. The June election will not stop that dedication to service. I will be a candidate for the 21st Senate District at the next election. As General Douglas MacArthur once said, "I shall return.""
With Senator Wanggaard conceding, the Democrats will have the majority in the State Senate at least until the start of the 2013-2014 in January, pending the results of the November election. No legislative activity will take place between now and January unless the Governor calls the Legislature into Special Session or the Legislature, both the Republican-controlled Assembly and the Democratic-controlled State Senate agree to come into session under an Extraordinary Session.
To officially transfer power, the Democrats have to come into session next week and vote for replacements to Sen. President Mike Ellis (R-Neenah) and Sen. President Pro Tempore Joe Leibham (R-Sheboygan).
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Weekly Radio Addresses
The State of Wisconsin has partnered with the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to provide a weekly radio from the Governor and a Democratic response. Below please find the transcripts to both of these radio addresses and here is a link to the
Finance Co-Chair Robin Vos (R-Burlington)
 | | Gov. Scott Walke |
Hello. I'm State Representative Robin Vos.
Many leading indicators show Wisconsin' s economy is turning around. The state officially added nearly 20- thousand jobs last year and had the 6th highest growth of manufacturing jobs in our country. Just last week, we learned Wisconsin wages increased a record amount in the first quarter. Even with the improving economy, our work is far from over.
Currently, a bi-partisan group of lawmakers is studying the state's income tax code. I'm chairing that committee. I have long believed that government should take less of your hard-earned money. Wisconsin needs an income tax code that is fairer, flatter and simpler. Our income tax laws should not be a detriment to our economy or the state's future.
The bi-partisan committee will meet three-to-four times this year. We hope to make a recommendation for new legislation for next session. Our current income tax system has been in place for 100-years.It' s now time for income tax reform.
Democratic Weekly Radio Address: |
Calendar of Events for Week of July 16th-20th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, July 16th
Fundraiser for Rep. Joe Knilans
11:30 a.m.
The Armory,
10 S. High St.,
Janesville.
Luncheon Reception With Special Guest Paul Ryan
Platinum $ 500.00
Gold $ 250.00
To attend $ 50.00
Please send checks to:
Friends for Joe Knilans
P.O. Box 2541
Janesville, WI 53547-2541
or email Nancy:
nmknilans@gmail.com
or cell: 608-931-9493
Tuesday, July 17th
Dane Co. executives for Rep. Sondy Pope-Roberts
5 p.m.
Westside Club,
437 S. Junction Road,
Madison.
Sponsored by Joe Parisi and former Dane Cty execs Kathleen Falk and Rick Phelps
Suggested Donations : $50, $75, $100
Checks Payable: Friends of Sondy Pope- Roberts
P.O. Box 930461
Verona, WI 53593
Contribute Online : https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/16029
*All Contributions Welcome
Fundraiser for Rep. Mike Endsley
5 p.m.
The Blue Harbor,
725 Blue Harbor Drive,
Sheboygan.
With Special Guest Governor Scott Walker
Please send checks to:
Taxpayers for Endsley
1829 N. 27th Place
Sheboygan, WI 53081
Suggested Contribution $100
Wednesday, July 18th
Re-election fundraiser for Rep. Chris Danou
5 p.m.
Brocach Irish Pub,
7 W. Main St.,
Madison.
Cash bar and light snacks will be served
Sponsor: $500
Host: $250
Friend: $100
*All Contributions Greatly Accepted
Checks Payable: Danou for Assembly
Thursday, July 19th
Fundraiser for 21st AD candidate Bill Kurtz
5 p.m.
Pat's Oak Manor,
1804 15th Ave.,
South Milwaukee.
Bill Kurtz, Democratic candidate for 21st District state represenative (Oak Creek, South Milwaukee and part of Franklin) will hold his first fundraising event from 5 to 7 p.m., Thursday, Juy 19, at Pat's Oak Manor, 1804 15th Ave., South Milwaukee. Assembly minority leader Peter Barca is scheduled to be the featured guest. The suggested donation is $25.
Bill Kurtz, (414) 762-3525
Fundraiser for 47th AD candidate Robb Kahl 5 p.m. Christy's Landing, 2952 Waubesa Ave., Madison. With special guest, Senate Majority Leader Mark Miller All Individual and PAC contributions gratefully accepted RSVP to info@robbkahl.com - or give online at www.robbkahl.com Make checks payable to Friends of Robb Kahl 4637 Tonyawatha Trail Monona, WI 53716 Fundraiser for Rep. Warren Petryk
5 p.m. Home of Dick & Marcia Larson, 4920 S Lowes Creek Road, Eau Claire. With Special Guest Governor Scott Walker $500 maximum contribution $125 minimum contribution No PAC please Please make checks payable to: Warren Petryk for Assembly S. 9840 State Rd 93 Eleva, WI 54738 RSVP required by July 16th to Craig at 715-832-0586
Friday, July 20th
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