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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: July 6th, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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US Senate Race Update
Politico this week released its June "Senate Monthly 10," their ranking of the top-tier US Senate races and how it will impact control of the United States Senate for the next session of Congress. Wisconsin continues to remain in the top 10 races to watch, however this month dropped to the bottom half of the Top 10, #7, because of the continued strong performance of former Governor Tommy Thompson in publicly released polling.
Here is what Politico reporter David Cantanese wrote about Wisconsin:
7. Wisconsin [down two spots]
The defining feature of the still-developing Badger State race is whether anyone can stop Tommy Thompson. The former governor and Health & Human Services secretary is cruising in primary and general election polling. But given his record - which includes his past statement endorsing a health care mandate - and the current anti-establishment vibe within the Republican primary electorate, even a double-digit lead seems tenuous. Democrats showed their hand that they want anyone but Thompson, leaking their own internal poll designed to create a perception that Thompson's not inevitable. With conservatives gearing up to take aim at the front-runner, the next 30 days will test that case.
Read more:
Next week both Marquette University Law School and Public Policy Polling are scheduled to release Wisconsin polls looking at both the Senate and Presidential races in the state. I will update as soon as the polls are released through our Facebook, Twitter and Tumblr accounts and then have a complete polling wrap-up for you in our Friday, July 13th Capitol Notes.
Below is where MU poll was in June and the PPP poll was in May, the last time they were in the field on the WI Senate Race.
Marquette (6/13-16):
Ballot test
- Thompson 49% v. Baldwin 41%
- Neumann 44% v. Baldwin 44%
- Baldwin 45% v. Fitzgerald 39%
- Baldwin 45% v. Hovde 36%
GOP Primary - Thompson 34%
- Neumann 16%
- Hovde 14%
- Fitzgerald 10%
PPP (5/11-13) Ballot test
- Thompson 47% v. Baldwin 43%
- Neumann 46% v. Baldwin 42%
- Baldwin 47% v. Fitzgerald 40%
- Hovde 46% v. Baldwin 41%
Ad Watch Below are the new ads running in the US Senate race over the last week and a half. American Commitment-Anti Baldwin Ad According to their website, the American Commitment (AC) is a third-party organization committed to "free markets, economic growth, Constitutionally-limited government, property rights, and individual freedom." AC is led by Phil Kerpen. Prior to joining AC, "Mr. Kerpen served as vice president for policy at Americans for Prosperity. Mr. Kerpen has also previously worked as an analyst and researcher for the Free Enterprise Fund, the Club for Growth, and the Cato Institute." The AC ad criticizes Congresswoman Baldwin for voting against legislation that would have benefited the state's paper industry and for her votes in favor of the stimulus and Affordable Care Act, which "put us deeper in debt."  | | American Commitment: Cheating |
Hovde for Senate-Taxes In the Hovde campaign's latest ad, US Senate candidate Hovde talks about how the United States has the "highest corporate tax rate in the world" and that it is "time to throw out the tax code and start over."  | | Hovde for Senate TV Ad: Taxes |
Hovde for Senate (Radio)-Focus U.S. Senate Candidate Eric Hovde talks about "the need for our federal government to control spending, balance the budget, reform our tax code, and deregulate the government red tape that is holding back private sector growth."  | | Hovde for Senate Radio Ad: Focus |
Neumann for Senate (Radio)-Independence US Senate candidate Mark Neumann talks about Independence Day and how he will be an independent member of the US Senate that won't be afraid to stand up to leaders in his own party regarding "pork barrel spending."  | | Neumann: Independence Radio Ad |
YouTube Channels: In case we miss an ad or you want to check-out videos from the campaign trails, below please find links to all of the major candidates YouTube channels: |
Presidential Race Update
Wisconsin Presidential Polling: No new Wisconsin polls this week, but we expect several updates next week, so the Pollster estimate remains the same (June 16, 2012) at: National Presidential Polling: There is a little movement this week on the National Presidential ballot test, the Pollster projection has President Obama moving up 1% to 47.0% and Gov. Romney up 0.5% from last week to 45%:
- President Obama 47.0% (+1% change)
- Governor Romney 44.5% (+0.5% change)
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
President Obama's current daily tracking job approval average dropped 1% this week from 46% Approve to 45% approve, and his Disapprove went up 1% from 46% last week to 47% Disapprove this week.
- President Obama Job Approval: 45.0% (-1% change)
- President Obama Job Disapproval: 47% (+1% change)
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The Electoral College: 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the presidency. There are several political websites that we track that project where the current electoral college map is currently at based on publicly available polling, including RealClearPolitics.com and NYTimes.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection The RCP project remains the same this week with no projected movement on the electoral college map. According to their map, 136 electoral votes including Wisconsin's 10, remain in the toss-up category.
- Obama-221 electoral votes
- Romney-181 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 136electoral votes (11 states incl. WI)
- NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map also stayed unchanged this week with 9 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column.
- Obama- 217 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 115 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election moved up 0.3% this week to 55%, up from 54.7% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory down 1.9% to 40.6%, compared to 42.5% last week.
- FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
- President Obama chance of re-election moves up 3% this to 68.3%, compared to 65.3% last week.
- Governor Romney chance of victory down 3% to 31.7%, from 34.7% last week. That's a two week drop of 6% for Romney.
Links: |
Control of the Wisconsin State Senate
Senate District 21 (Racine) | John Lehman
(D-Racine) |
In the recall election of Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine) the recount wrapped up on Monday with the final tally showing Democratic challenger John Lehman with an 819 vote lead over Sen. Wanggaard. Prior to the recount Wanggaard was trailing by 834 votes. In reaction to the recount wrapping up Sen. Wanggaard released the following statement: "I would like to thank the Board of Canvass and all of the volunteers who participated in the recount. They have done a valuable service to the County and all voters should be appreciative of the time their efforts.
"Unfortunately, rather than clarify the myriad of issues that surfaced on June 5, the recount uncovered even more suspicious activity.
"The list of problems now includes missing pages in poll books, missing signatures, wrong voter numbers, wrong and unverified addresses and most shocking of all, unsealed and sealed and reopened ballot bags - all without explanation. None of these issues would have been discovered if not for the recount.
"Anyone who argues that this recount was a waste of time, or that we do not need voter ID, either wants to conceal these potential fraudulent activities or hasn't been paying attention.
"As with my decision to pursue the recount, I will spend the next couple of days reviewing the evidence, speaking with voters, supporters, and my family before deciding my next step.
The window for Sen. Wanggaard to challenge the results of the election runs until July 10th. If Sen. Wanggaard does not challenge the results, the results will be certified on July 11th and John Lehman will be sworn into office and the Democrats will have a 17-16 majority in the State Senate.
 | | Democratic Senate Leader Mark Miller |
On Thursday, Sen. Miller and his Democratic colleagues held a press conference calling on Sen. Wanggaard to conceded the race after the recount upheld Lehman's win. Sen. Miller said:
"Senator Van Wanggaard asked for a recount of the votes from the June 5th election in the 21st Senate District. As expected, the results are unchanged. Senator-elect Lehman won by more than 800 votes.
It is time for Senator Wanggaard to concede and let the voters of the 21st Senate District have the senator they chose. Any attempt to delay with court cases is irresponsible and a waste of time and money, not to mention a denial of democracy.
The voters in the 21st have spoken. Let's move forward and let Senator-elect Lehman start working on job creation for his constituents.
The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate (CERS) responded to Sen. Miller's press conference with the following statement:
Van Wanggaard is granted time under the law to decide whether or not to appeal the recount," said CERS' executive director Dan Romportl. "In light of all issues that were exposed with the City of Racine's facilitation of the election, it is certainly justifiable that Van is using that time to decide what course of action to take.
Senator Miller's antics over the past year and a half are clearly coming back to haunt him. When he had the chance to work with Republicans on job-creation issues, he passed and launched two rounds of expensive recalls. Now the members of his caucus that are up for reelection in November have nothing substantial to run on, and he's panicking.
Regardless of the outcome in the 21st district, we look forward to holding Senators Hansen, King, Lassa, Shilling, and Wirch accountable for their failure to represent their constituents and their attempts to recall progress over the past eighteen months." The deadline for a legal challenge to the election is Tuesday, July 10th. We will keep you apprised of any legal developments, otherwise the election will be certified on Wednesday, and John Lehman will be sworn in as the 17th Democratic State Senator. |
Other Capitol News of Note
Attorney General Van Hollen elected president-elect of National AG AssociationAttorney General J.B. Van Hollen was elected President-Elect of the National Association of Attorneys General ("NAAG") during its annual summer meeting in June. He will assume the post in June 2013. NAAG was created to assist state attorneys general and improve interaction and coordination in handling state and federal issues. According to its website, "the Association fosters interstate cooperation on legal and law enforcement issues, conducts policy research and analysis of issues, conducts training, and facilitates communication between the states' chief legal officers and all levels of government." ( Full release) Wisconsin Technical College System President Clancy RetiringDan Clancy announced his retirement as President of the Wisconsin Technical College System (WTCS). President Clancy will step down effective September 14, 2012, following a 16-year tenure, including the past eight years as system president. From 1996 to 2004, Clancy served as vice president, Finance, Planning and Policy. ( Full release) Final Gubernatorial Recall Spending Reports Announced Both the Walker and Barrett campaigns disclosed their final fundraising reports for the recall election on Thursday. The Walker campaign reported raising $6.7 million in the final reporting period between May 22nd and June 30th. According to Wispolitics.com Gov. Walker has raised $37 million since taking office and $27.6 million in the first 6 months of 2012. The Walker campaign in their press release noted that the final $6.7 million was raised from 82,206 contributions of which 63,895 of the contributions were $50 or less. The campaign reported they have $1.6 million cash-on-hand still. During the same reporting period the Barrett campaign raised $2.5 million, and $6.6 million in total. The campaign reported having $252,000 cash-on-hand remaining.
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Weekly Radio Addresses
The State of Wisconsin has partnered with the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to provide a weekly radio from the Governor and a Democratic response. Below please find the transcripts to both of these radio addresses and here is a link to the
Governor Scott Walker
 | | Gov. Scott Walker |
Hi I'm Scott Walker.
Military service members have selflessly served to protect the freedoms our founders risked their lives for when they read the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 at Independence Square. Both military service members and veterans are in large part responsible for the preservation of our society as we know it today.
Because of this, I proclaimed 2012 the Year of the Veteran, with the hope we could help those returning home reintegrate into civilian society with housing, education, health care, and meaningful jobs.
The best part of my job is welcoming home those who have served overseas. The hardest days are when I have to attend military funerals. However hard it is, talking with the families of those who have made the ultimate sacrifice, always gives me hope. At nearly every military funeral I attended, a family member or friend of the fallen soldier has come up to me and thanked the people of our great state for honoring those returning home. It's remarkable that those who are experiencing an unbelievable amount of grief from the loss of a son or daughter, husband or wife, or friend, can take the time to thank the people of our state. They are what make our state and country great.
I hope all year long you'll continue to celebrate the courage exhibited by our founders, our service members, and our veterans. If you see a veteran or service member at a parade, community event or gathering throughout this summer, please thank them for their service and for protecting our freedoms.
Democratic Weekly Radio Address:
 | | Representative Chris Taylor (D-Madison) |
Representative Chris Taylor (D-Madison)
"First, I hope everyone had a wonderful and safe 4th of July.
And I would like to express my sincere appreciation to all those who are currently serving or who have served our country.
During the 4th of July holiday my husband Jim and our sons Sam and Ben like to spend as much time outside as possible. This holiday also reminds me that every child should have the opportunity to play and spend time outdoors, in a clean, safe environment while they discover Wisconsin's diverse wilderness and explore our incredible natural spaces.
That is why I am the lead sponsor of the Children's Outdoor Bill of Rights, a bipartisan bill that emphasizes getting our children outdoors interacting with nature. The Children's Outdoor Bill of Rights is important for our children's physical health, cognitive development and emotional well-being.
Increasingly, research suggests that contact with nature is as important to children as good nutrition and adequate sleep. Yet studies also show our children are suffering from 'Nature Deficit Disorder.' As children lose their connection with the outdoors, their physical and mental health suffers.
Children should not have to drink unsafe water or breathe polluted air. Policy makers, educators and parents must make sure we preserve and protect our natural spaces for our children and for future generations.
Every child should have the right to grow up healthy and ready to learn by having outdoor experiences that connect them to nature and nurture their minds and bodies.
Please join my family this summer and take your children, nieces, nephews or grandchildren outside. Hike, bike ride, fish, swim, camp, or do any other outdoor activity your family may enjoy. Time children spend in nature this summer will help them be happier, healthier and ready to learn in school this fall."
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Calendar of Events for Week of July 9th-13th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday, July 9th
John Macco for State Senate (30th)
5:30 PM
Bryce Paup & Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilla
Invite you to a Campaign Kickoff and Fundraising Reception
Supporting the Candidacy of
John Macco For State Senate
Titletown Brewery
200 Dousman Street
Green Bay, WI
Suggested Contribution $25/Person $50/couple
Tuesday, July 10th
Fundraiser for Rep. Jason Fields 5 p.m.
Brocach Irish Pub,
7 W. Main St.,
Madison.
Host: $500
Sponsor: $250
Checks Payable: Jason Fields for Assembly
5686 North 60th St.
Milwaukee, WI 53218
Contact: email jasonfieldsforassembly@gmail.com
cell (414)364-1642
Competitive Wisconsin Major Statewide work force research study briefing
CWI will brief Wisconsin business, labor, civic and academic leaders to discuss work force development and training issues and announce plans for a major statewide research study that will be conducted this summer. (four regional briefings) 9:00 a.m.
Ullsvik Hall in the Nohr Gallery UW-Platteville
Corner of Hickory and Main St. Platteville More information
Wednesday, July 11th
Competitive Wisconsin Major Statewide work force research study briefing
CWI will brief Wisconsin business, labor, civic and academic leaders to discuss work force development and training issues and announce plans for a major statewide research study that will be conducted this summer. (four regional briefings) |
12:00 noon
Room 1965, Student Union UW-Green Bay
2420 Nicolet Dr.
Green Bay More information
Thursday, July 12th
Competitive Wisconsin Major Statewide work force research study briefing
CWI will brief Wisconsin business, labor, civic and academic leaders to discuss work force development and training issues and announce plans for a major statewide research study that will be conducted this summer. (four regional briefings) |
7:30 a.m.
Room UC 113/114 (LGI) UW-Fond du Lac
400 University Dr.
Fond du Lac
More information
Competitive Wisconsin Major Statewide work force research study briefing
CWI will brief Wisconsin business, labor, civic and academic leaders to discuss work force development and training issues and announce plans for a major statewide research study that will be conducted this summer. (four regional briefings) |
11:00 a.m
Sage Hall: Room 1216 UW-Oshkosh
845 High Ave. Oshkosh
More information
Friday, July 13th
Almost world famous SSDC golf outing 8:15 a.m.
Geneva National Golf Club,
1221 Geneva National Ave.,
Lake Geneva.
Registration and Sign In is from 8:15 - 9:30
9:45 Shotgun Start
Sponsorship Levels:
$1,000 per golfer
$750 for hole sponsorship
$3,500 for a foursome
$4,000 for a foursome and hole sponsorship
$2,000 to sponsor hole-in-one challenge (only 3 available)
State and Federal PAC both accepted
For more information please call Zac Kramer at 608-260-2417
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