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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.

FROM:  Capitol Consultants, Inc.
              & Wimmer Company, S.C.

DATE:  June 29th, 2012

SUBJECT:  
Weekly Political & Legislative Update
 
In This Issue
Supreme Court Rules on Affordable Care Act
Presidential Race Update
Weekly Radio Addresses
Calendar of Events
Stay Connected
 
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Supreme Court Rules on the Affordable Care Act

 

On Thursday morning the United State Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act.  In the ruling, the court decided on a 5-4 vote, than an individual mandate requiring people to purchase health insurance is impermissible under the Constitution's commerce clause, but it is however, valid as a tax.

 

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion:

 

"The Affordable Care Act is constitutional in part and unconstitutional in part. The individual mandate cannot be upheld as an exercise of Congress's power under the Commerce Clause. That Clause authorizes Congress to regulate interstate commerce, not to order individuals to engage in it. In this case, however, it is reasonable to construe what Congress has done as increasing taxes on those who have a certain amount of income, but choose to go without health insurance. Such legislation is within Congress's power to tax."

 

The four dissenting Justices (Scalia, Kennedy, Alito and Thomas) took exception with this conclusion in their dissent:

 

We have no doubt that Congress knew precisely what it was doing when it rejected an earlier version of this legislation that imposed a tax instead of a requirement-with-penalty. See Affordable Health Care for America Act, H. R. 3962, 111th Cong., 1st Sess., §501 (2009); America's Healthy FutureAct of 2009, S. 1796, 111th Cong., 1st Sess., §1301. Imposing a tax through judicial legislation inverts the constitutional scheme, and places the power to tax in the branch of government least accountable to the citizenry.  

 

Governor Scott Walker released a statement following the ruling stating that he was still opposed to "ObamaCare" and that Wisconsin would not take any further steps to implement the law until after the November elections are decided.

 

"Wisconsin will not take any action to implement ObamaCare. I am hopeful that political changes in Washington D.C. later this year ultimately end the implementation of this law at the federal level.  


If there is no political remedy from Washington and the law moves forward, it would require the majority of people in Wisconsin to pay more money for less healthcare. Additionally, it would increase the size and cost of government, decrease the quality of healthcare and, in our state, reduce access for those truly in need of assistance."  Source

 

Senate Democratic Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona) countered that since the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act, Wisconsin should move forward.

 

"Now that we know this is the law of the land, it is time for our state to put together a health care exchange. It's unfortunate that so far Governor Walker has said he will not immediately start planning for a Wisconsin health care exchange. I am hopeful he will change his mind and start working with the legislature soon on a plan." Source 

 

One of the provisions of the health care law that Sen. Miller referenced  in his statement which has a 2012 implementation deadline is whether or not Wisconsin will indicate to the Secretary of US Health & Human Services that it will operate an American Health Benefit Exchange.  The deadline to notify HHS is November 16, 2012.  (Election Day is Nov. 6, 2012).

 

The Supreme Court ruling ensures that without presidential or legislative intervention, the ACA will continue to be implemented and states will be required to comply with timelines to comply with those provisions.  The Kaiser Family Foundation has a good interactive implementation timeline that highlights key provisions of the health care law and when and how they will be implemented.  That link can be found here.   

 

In addition to Governor Walker and Sen. Miller, nearly 100 lawmakers, candidates and organizations released statements reacting to the Supreme Court decision.  Below please find a link to a pared down but representative compilation of these quotes from lawmakers, candidates and organizations. 

 

Reaction to SCOTUS ruling 

 
Presidential Race Update 

 

  

Wisconsin Presidential Polling: 

 
  No new Wisconsin polls this week, so the Pollster estimate remains the same (June 16, 2012) at:
  • Obama 46.9%
  • Romney 44.5%
 
National Presidential Polling:

 

On the National Presidential ballot test, the Pollster projection has President Obama remaining at 46.0% and Gov. Romney down 0.4% from last week to 44.5%:
  • President Obama 46.0%
  • Governor Romney 44.5% 
 
 
Gallup Presidential Job Approval 
 

President Obama's current daily tracking job approval average remained at 46% Approve, and dropped 1% in Disapprove, from 47% last week to 46% Disapprove this week.

 
The Electoral College:
270 electoral college votes are needed to win the presidency.  There are several political websites that we track that project where the current electoral college map is currently at based on publicly available polling, including RealClearPolitics.com and NYTimes.  
 
  • RealClearPolitics.com current race projection RCP changes +11 for Governor Romney this week with the addition of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes to the Lean Romney category, moving him from a projected 170 to 181.  Pres. Obama remained at a projected 221 this week. 
    • Obama-221 electoral votes
    • Romney-181 electoral votes
    • Toss-Up- 136electoral votes (11 states incl. WI)
  • NY Times current race projection The NY Times electoral map stayed unchanged this week with 9 states including WI remaining in the toss-up column.  
    • Obama- 217 electoral votes
    • Romney- 206 electoral votes
    • Toss-Up- 115 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
 
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites:
 
  • Intrade 
    • President Obama chance of re-election 54.7%, up from 52.9% last week. 
    • Governor Romney chance of victory 42.5%, up from 42.1% last week.
  • FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
    • President Obama chance of re-election 65.3% up from 62.6% last week.
    • Governor Romney chance of victory 34.7%, down from 37.4% last week.
 Links:
 
Weekly Radio Addresses

The State of Wisconsin has partnered with the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to provide a weekly radio from the Governor and a Democratic response.  Below please find the transcripts to both of these radio addresses and here is a link to the

Governor Scott Walker 

 

scottwalker2
Gov. Scott Walker

Hi I'm Scott Walker.

Last week I had the pleasure of meeting a young man named Blake Parker. Blake is only 12 years old, but he's fought more battles than most people do in a lifetime.

Blake was born with a congenital heart disease (called Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome), and he needs a new heart. He's been on the transplant list for almost a year and a half.

I met with Blake because a friend of his family contacted my office. You see, Blake has a wish list, and one of the items on it, was a chance to meet the Governor. We played guitar together and sang. For a little guy with a failing heart, he sure does have a soul full of spirit.

Blake is one of 1800 people in Wisconsin waiting for an organ transplant. Across the country, every day, time runs out for 19 people on the waiting list.

It's easy to become an organ donor. You can sign up when you renew your driver's license and get the "donor dot" like I did, but you don't have to wait. You can get on the registry right now by going to YesIWillWisconsin.com. It could be a life-saving decision for kids like Blake, who, by the way, has a ways to go to complete his wish list. He also wants to meet Lady Gaga and Carrie Underwood. I would love to see that happen.

That's one of the things on my wish list.   

 



Democratic Weekly Radio Address:
Democratic Leader Mark Miller (D-Monona)
Sen. Mark Miller
Senate Democratic Leader Mark Miller 

A transcript of the Democratic weekly address was not available, but the audio can be heard at the WI Broadcasters Association website: http://www.wi-broadcasters.org/wba/index.php/for-the-public/weekly-address/
 
Calendar of Events for Week of July 2nd-6th:
  • GOP Events are in RED
  • DEM Events are in BLUE  
Because of the July 4th holiday, there are no fundraising events scheduled next week.

 

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