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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: June 22nd, 2012
SUBJECT: Weekly Political & Legislative Update
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Marquette University Law School Releases New Poll
On Wednesday, the Marquette University Law School released its 7th survey this year and first survey post the 2012 Recall Elections. The survey covered the status of the Presidential election in Wisconsin, the US Senate Race and Republican Primary for that race, perceptions of the recall election and the impending US Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Care Act. Below are some highlights from the survey, minus the US Senate and Presidential results which are in those respective section updates below.
Link to the MU Law School Poll
The survey highlighted the following findings:
- Republicans somewhat more engaged
According to the survey, Republicans maintain an enthusiasm advantage following the recall elections with 93% Republicans saying they were certain to vote in November, compared to 85% of Democrats and 78% of Independents.
- Majority believe recalls should only be in cases of criminal wrongdoing
Likely voters have shifted their opinion of recalls since January when 43% said they would like to see recalls "only in cases of criminal wrongdoing," and 53% favored keeping the current rules "with no such restrictions." This month's poll shows that now a majority, 50%, now want to limit recalls to cases involving criminal wrongdoing while 44% want to keep the current law. - Not surprising, 70% of those wishing to limit recalls were Governor Walker voters, while 61% of those wishing to keep the recalls without restrictions were Mayor Barrett voters.
- Franklin noted one effect of note in the cross tabs in the decision of voters to vote at all.
"Among those disapproving of Walker yet preferring limits on the recall, 26 percent did not vote, whereas 13 percent did not vote among those disapproving of Walker while supporting the current law."
- Overwhelming interest in more cooperation between parties and majority believe it is possible
- 84% of registered voters said they would like to see more cooperation between the parties.
- And over half (55%) think cooperation between the parties is possible versus 41% percent who feel the differences are too great for cooperation.
- Republicans were the most optimistic about cooperation, 61% saying it is possible, 58% of Independents and 48% of Democrats said it is possible.
- U.S. Supreme Court and health care reform
When Wisconsin voters were asked about the Supreme Court's impending decision on health care reform, the were divided in their opinion of the law: - 33% would like to see the Court keep the entire law intact
- 19% would like only the part of the law that requires individuals to purchase insurance overturned
- 38% would like the Court to overturn the entire law.
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United State Senate Race Update
The portions of the Marquette University Law School poll that got the most attention from the media and political observers was the first extensive look at the status of the US Senate race to replace retiring US Senator Herb Kohl since the recall.
United States Senate Race:
Former Governor Tommy Thompson is the most well-known and popular of the candidates in the race with 84% of voters able to rate their favorability of him. Just over half of voters can rate Democratic candidate Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, and the rest of the field is not known by half of the voters.
Favorability:
- Tommy Thompson - Republican (+12%)
- 48% favorable
- 36% unfavorable
- Tammy Baldwin - Democrat (-3%)
- 27% favorable
- 30% unfavorable
- Mark Neumann - Republican (0%)
- 24% favorable
- 24% unfavorable
- Jeff Fitzgerald- Republican (-5%)
- 17% favorable
- 22% unfavorable
- Eric Hovde- Republican (+1%)
- 14% favorable
- 13% unfavorable
GOP Primary Race
Governor Thompson leads his nearest opponent by 18%, with 1 out of 4 GOP Primary voters undecided.
- Tommy Thompson 34%
- Mark Neumann 16%
- Eric Hovde 14%
- Jeff Fitzgerald 10%
- Undecided 25%
Updated Trends/Projections on GOP Senate Primary
HuffingtonPost/Pollster Estimate:
- Thompson 34%
- Neumann 16%
- Hovde 14%
- Fizgerald 10%
link
RealClearPolitics.com Average:
No RCP projection yet
Ballot Test: In judging the candidates electability if the election was today, Thompson leads Baldwin by 8%, while Neumann and Baldwin are tied, and both Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald and Eric Hovde trail by 6% and 9% respectively. Tommy Thompson (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D) - Tommy Thompson 49%
- Tammy Baldwin 41%
- Some other candidate/not sure 9%
Mark Neumann (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D) - Mark Neumann 44%
- Tammy Baldwin 44%
- Some other candidate/not sure 12%
Jeff Fitzgerald (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D) - Jeff Fitzgerald 39%
- Tammy Baldwin 45%
- Some other candidate/not sure 13%
Eric Hovde (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D) - Eric Hovde 36%
- Tammy Baldwin 45%
- Some other candidate/not sure 14%
Updated Trend/Projections of GOP Candidates versus Baldwin: Tommy Thompson Mark Neumann Jeff Fitzgerald Eric Hovde - Not enough polling data for a HuffPost-Pollster chart
- RCP Average Hovde -0.7%
Campaign Ads Tammy Baldwin for Senate- Paper Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) started airing her first ad of the campaign this week entitled "Paper." The ad highlights the importance of the state's paper industry while attacking China for "cheating" on trade agreements that hurts the industry in the state and how Cong. Baldwin has brought Democrats and Republicans together to hold China accountable.  | | Tammy Baldwin (D)-Paper |
American's for Prosperity-Moving Wisconsin Forward American's for Prosperity, a conservative third party group, has an independent expenditure ad up this week calling on Washington to "stop the wasteful spending, balance the budget, and protect hardworking taxpayers." The ad is critical of Cong. Baldwin for voting with Nancy Pelosi 93% of the time and her votes to raise the debt limit, tax increases and other issues of interest to AFP.  | | Americans for Prosperity: Wisconsin Moving Forward |
Tommy Thompson for Senate- Stop The Thompson campaign released a campaign ad this week called "Stop." The ad highlights the role Thompson will play in "stopping" government control of health care, out of control deficits, tax hikes and out of control government regulations.  | | Tommy Thompson - Stop |
Eric Hovde for Senate-They're Not Going to Like Him The Hovde campaign's latest ad has his two daughters talking about how the current Senate votes for growing the debt, spends money they don't have and pretends things are good even when they are not, and how the Senate will not like their dad because he won't go along with it.  | | Hovde for Senate TV Ad: They're Not Going to Like Him |
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Presidential Race Update
Now that we are past the recall elections in Wisconsin and starting to focus on November, so are the presidential campaigns. This week Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney's "Every Town Counts" bus tour was in Janesville. Governor Romney was jointed on Monday by Governor Scott Walker, Congressman Paul Ryan and Republican National Committee Chair and Wisconsinite Reince Priebus. Governor Romney's bus tour was preceded by the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) shadow bus tour, the "Middle Class Under the Bus Tour." At his remarks in Janesville, Governor Romney noted that there is an opportunity for him to win Wisconsin in November, something a Republican Presidential candidate has not done since former President Ronald Reagan's re-elect campaign in 1984.
"I think President Obama had just put this in his column, he had just assumed from the beginning that Wisconsin was his," Romney said as some shouts of "no" came from the audience. "But you know what? We're going to win Wisconsin and we're going to get the White House." ( quote from Wispolitics.com story on the event) As part of the DNC bus tour, former Democratic Lieutenant Governor candidate and firefighter union president Mahlon Mitchell spoke out against Romney's tenure as Governor of Massachusetts: "In Massachusetts, Romney vetoed millions of dollars for fire-safety equipment. And it wasn't funding in all-encompassing bill that Romney vetoed. He specifically targeted this safety equipment by vetoing it with a line-item veto. As Governor, Mitt Romney cut funding for our coats, pants, boots - equipment that is essential to do the job and that protects firefighters when they run into a burning building. Mitt Romney made it clear that equipment our first responders needed to keep themselves and our communities safe was not a priority to him... " (more from DNC release) Wisconsin is in a good position to get a lot of attention again during this presidential cycle. On the Democratic side, Wisconsin was a state that helped secure President Obama's nomination, was captured by the Obama campaign with significant margin in 2008, was the location (Spring Green, WI) candidate Obama used to prepare for one of his debates with Senator John McCain and President Obama fared well in recall election night exit polling even though Governor Walker won re-election by a significant margin. On the Republican side, Wisconsin is seen as a state that is in play because Governor Walker won his recall election by a significant margin, the Governor's significant grassroots infrastructure is still in tact from the June election and will be transferred to November turnout operations, Wisconsinite Reince Priebus is chair of the RNC and can dedicate significant resources to the state and both Janesville Congressman Paul Ryan and Governor Walker are getting mentions as potential compliments to Governor Romney on the presidential ticket. On the latter point the LA Times ran an article this week analyzing the vice presidential selection process that splits the types of potential candidates into four buckets; (1) A balancer-someone who compensates for the nominee's vulnerabilities, (2) the young gun-a reach across generations/the gender gap, (3) the hatchet man/woman-an aggressive running mate who could attack the Obama campaign in battleground states, (4) the reinforcer- an example is the Clinton-Gore team, someone who is just like the candidate and reinforces their positive qualities. Based on these four buckets, here is who the LA Times places as potential in these four buckets: Capitol Notes Tracking of the Presidential Race: To keep on top of the Pre and Election Day we will keep track of several indicators and presidential election projection websites and update them for you on a weekly basis. Included will be the status of any Wisconsin polling of note, President Obama's Job Approval nationally, head-to-head ballot match ups between President Obama and Governor Romney, Electoral College projections and Presidential election projections. Wisconsin Presidential Polling: The Marquette University poll had the following results regarding the status of the presidential race in Wisconsin:
President Obama's Job Approval:
- The MU Poll has President Obama's job approval at:
- 52% Approve of his performance
- 43% Disapprove of his performance
- This is the same spread as MU's May poll
Candidate Favorability:
- President Obama
- 53% have a Favorable opinion of President Obama
- 39% have an Unfavorable opinion of President Obama
- In May Obama's favorable rating was 55% with 41% unfavorable.
- Governor Romney
- 35% have a Favorable opinion of Governor Romney
- 43% have an Unfavorable opinion of Governor Romney
- In May Romney's favorable rating was 40% and 47% unfavorable.
Ballot Test:
If the Presidential election were held today:
- President Obama - 49%
- Governor Romney- 43%
- In May, President Obama was at 51% and Romney was at 43%.
Currently, Pollster has the Wisconsin polling estimate (June 12, 2012) at: National Presidential Polling: Currently Pollster has the National polling estimate (June 22nd, 2012) at:
- President Obama 46.0%
- Governor Romney 44.9%
Last Friday, June 15th, the Pollster estimate had the race at 45.6% for Obama and 44.1% for Romney. The new polling additions this week were:
- Rasmussen (6/16-18, N-1,500 LV) Obama 44% | Romney 48%
- Gallup (6/12-18), N-3
Gallup Presidential Job Approval Gallup has been tracking Presidential Job Approval since 1948 when Harry Truman was president. Gallup releases a three-day rolling average of the president's job approval as well as a monthly review and comparison to previous presidents.
For May, President Obama's job approval rating averaged 47%, the same as it was in April. According to Gallup, since World War II, May job approval averages in re-election years have been broadly aligned with the eventual election outcome. According to Gallup, based on putting the President's approval in historical context, the November election will be very close. Five presidents who had higher job approval ratings than Obama all won re-election handily (Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Johnson and Eisenhower). Those with lower job approvals in May were also easily defeated (Carter and George HW Bush). President Obama's job approval is identical to former President's George W Bush and Gerald Ford, one who won re-election and one whom lost.
President Obama's current daily tracking job approval average is currently at 46% Approve, 47% Disapprove.
Comparing President Obama to the last two presidents that were re-elected and President George HW Bush, who was not re-elected, here is how they compare on their job approvals at this point in their re-election campaigns:
- President Obama (2012): 46% Approval
- President GW Bush (2004): 48% Approval
- President Clinton (1996): 58% Approval
- President GHW Bush (1992): 38% Approval
The Electoral College: 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the presidency. There are several political websites that we track that project where the current electoral college map is currently at based on publicly available polling, including RealClearPolitics.com and NYTimes.
- RealClearPolitics.com current race projection
- Obama-221 electoral votes
- Romney-170 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 147 electoral votes (12 states incl. WI)
- NY Times current race projection
- Obama- 217 electoral votes
- Romney- 206 electoral votes
- Toss-Up- 115 electoral votes (9 states incl. WI)
Political Forecast/Market Indicator Websites: There are two online forecasting/market prediction websites that I find very interesting for tracking election probability; they are Intrade and FiveThirtyEight. Prior to the June 5th Gubernatorial Recall Election, both sites were getting a lot of attention for where they were predicting Walker's chances of being re-elected.
- Intrade is an online "prediction market." According to their website, Intrade is a "marketplace for the exchange of predictions on uncertain future events often called 'prediction markets' or 'event markets'. When you make a prediction it facilitates the aggregation of crowd wisdom into predictive probabilities."
- FiveThirtyEight is NY Times blog that is "devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means. In addition, FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional, and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models.
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Just prior to the election Intrade had Governor Walker at 90% chance of re-election and FiveThirtyEight had Governor Walker's re-election victory pegged at 95%.
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- Intrade
- President Obama chance of re-election 52.9%
- Governor Romney chance of victory 42.1%
- FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast
- President Obama chance of re-election 62.6% (+1.7% from previous week)
- Governor Romney chance of victory 37.4% (-1.7% from previous week)
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Recount in the 21st Senate District
The recount in the 21st Senate District is on day 2 today (Friday). On the first day of the recount 9,893 ballots were reviewed of the close to 72,000 ballots cast.
The 9,893 ballots came from four municipalities surveyed and produced no change for incumbent Republican Van Wanggaard while Democratic challenger John Lehman lost three votes.
Sen. Wanggaard entered the recount trailing Lehman by 834 votes -- 36,351 to 35,517 -- after the official canvas.
The recount is due to end by July 2.
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Weekly Radio Addresses
The State of Wisconsin has partnered with the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association to provide a weekly radio from the Governor and a Democratic response. Below please find the transcripts to both of these radio addresses and here is a link to the
Governor Scott Walker
 | | Gov. Scott Walker |
Hi I'm Scott Walker.
As I've traveled the state and talked to job creators from all areas I often hear a similar story: they tell me jobs are available, but they can't find skilled workers to fill the positions.
This week I was proud to rollout, with the support of the leadership of the University of Wisconsin System, a new degree model that will help close this skills gap and get more people back to work.
The new UW flexible degree will be a knowledge-based model that allows students to start classes anytime and earn credit for what they already know. Students will be able to demonstrate college-level competencies based on material they already learned in school, on the job, or on their own. By taking advantage of a high quality, flexible degree students will be able to accelerate their careers, effectively lowering the cost of higher education.
As states across the country work to improve access and affordability to college, this new initiative will place Wisconsin at the forefront of a new frontier in higher education.
Because of the support of the UW System we expect to make this program available online to students as soon as the fall of this year.
Democratic Weekly Radio Address:
 | | Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca |
Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D-Kenosha)
"It is long past time to actually focus like a laser on job creation. Instead, Republicans are continuing to divide our state.
"This time legislative Republicans are prolonging the division with a state Senate recount that is unnecessary and likely to cost local taxpayers more than $7,000. Recounts are uncommon and generally reserved for when it is actually a close race of less than one-half of one percent. That is not the case here.
"In this race, the people of the 21st District voted clearly in favor of bipartisanship and restoring checks and balances to state government. Their decision should be respected, not cast aside for purely partisan reasons.
"Unfortunately Republicans have shifted their focus away from jobs before. Republican legislators and Gov. Walker announced two special jobs sessions last year that instead focused on adding political cronies, extreme, right-wing social issues and making it harder for workers to support their families. The marquee bills the governor announced for the fall session - venture capital and mining - both died because Republicans refused to work together and instead continued their divide-and-conquer approach.
"Meanwhile, when the job numbers for the country came out last week, Wisconsin unfortunately was again dead last in the nation in job creation over the past year.
"Let's set aside the partisanship and finally do what Democrats have called for for the past year, which is sit around the conference table and advance bills both Democrats and Republicans know will actually create jobs and close the skills gap.
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Calendar of Events for Week of June 25th-29th:
- GOP Events are in RED
- DEM Events are in BLUE
Monday June 25th
RACC at the Trap Golf Outing
11 a.m.
Trappers Turn Golf Course,
Wisconsin Dells.
Registration: 11:00 a.m./Box Lunch
Shot Gun Start: 12:00 Noon Sharp
Cocktails: 5:30 - 6:30 p.m.
Dinner: 6:30 p.m.
$1000 Per Individual Golfer
$3000 Hole Sponsorship: Three rounds of golf, legislator 4th, sign on hole
Conduit and Individual Contributions Appreciated.
Please make checks payable to RACC
Information: Call Melanie Hubbard at 608-279-1275 or mhubbard@wisgop.org
Friends of Fred Kessler
Time- 5:30-7:30PM
Yen Ching, 7620 W. Good Hope Rd, Milwaukee, WI 53223
Checks Payable: Friends of Fred Kessler
11221 W. Sanctuary Dr., Milwaukee, WI 53224
*All Contributions Welcomed
Fundraiser for 35th AD candidate Mary Czaja
5 p.m.
Pine Tree Supper Club,
115 W. Wisconsin Ave.,
Tomahawk.
Hors d'oeuvres & Cash bar
Please send checks to:
Mary Czaja for Assembly
P.O. Box 751
Tomahawk, WI 54487
Please RSVP to Mary at (715)966 3366
Congressman Ron Kind
Ways & Means Committee Member
Monday, June 25th 5:00-7:00 PM
Brocach Irish Pub & Restaurant 7 West Main St. Capitol Square Madison
Sponsorship Levels
Host: $1000 Sponsor: $250 Suggested Contribution: $100
Fundraiser for 35th AD candidate Mary Czaja
5 p.m.
The Refuge Restaurant & Northwoods Bar,
410 Highway 64 E.,
Antigo.
Special Guest Majority Leader Scott Suder
Hors d'oeuvres & Cash bar
Please send checks to:
Mary Czaja for Assembly
P.O. Box 751
Tomahawk, WI 54487
Please RSVP to Mary at (715)966 3366
Fred Clark Clark for Wisconsin
Genna's : 105 West Main St, Madison, WI 53703
5-7 PM
Sponsor - $500
Host- $250
Friend - $100
*Suggested Contribution $50
Checks Payable: Clark for Wisconsin
P.O.Box 571
Sauk City, WI 53583
*No PAC Contributions
Fundraiser for Rep. Amy Loudenbeck
5 p.m.
Gordy's Boathouse - Cobalt Lounge,
336 Lake St.,
Fontana.
Special Guest Senator Neal Kedzie
Suggested Contribution $50 per person
All contributions gratefully accepted
Please RSVP to amy@amyforassembly.com or call 262 206-4312
Please send checks to:
Amy Loudenbeck for Assembly
P.O. Box 556
Clinton, WI 53525
Citizens for Janis Ringhand
314 State St, Beloit, WI 53511
5:00 - 7:00 PM
RSVP :Janis.Ringhand@gmail.com
Host: $100
Sponsor: $50
Supporter $25
Checks Payable: Citizens for Janis Ringhand
P.O. Box 231, Evansville, WI 53536
Online: secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/25839
*All Contributions Welcomed
Fundraiser for Rep. Jeremy Thiesfeldt
5:30 p.m.
Parrott Palms Restaurant,
248 N. Hickory St.,
Fond du Lac.
Guest speaker - Brian Schimming
Red Hosts - $500
White Hosts - $350
Blue Hosts - $250 (host commitment needed by June 10)
Suggested contribution for event $50/person or couple
PAC donations welcome
RSVP - fightingforthe52nd@charter.net or (920) 933-2086
Fundraiser for Rep. Dean Knudson
6:30 p.m.
Hudson Golf Club,
201 Carmichael Road,
Hudson.
Special Guest Speaker Robin Vos
Suggested contribution $50
Send contributions to: Knudson for Assembly, Box 123, River Falls, WI 54022
RSVP to info@deanknudson.com
Fundraiser for Rep. John Nygren
5:30 p.m.
Rock Garden,
1951 Bond St.,
Green Bay.
With Honored Guest Karl Van Ray
Suggested contribution $25/person
All contributions gratefully accepted
Please send checks to:
Taxpayers for Nygren
N2118 Keller Rd.
Marinette, WI 54143
Please RSVP to John at (715) 923 -3426 or elect@votejohnnygren.com
Fundraiser for Rep. Garey Bies
5:30 p.m.
Door Peninsula Winery,
5806 Wisconsin 42,
Sturgeon Bay.
With Special Guest Majority Leader Scott Suder
Suggested Contribution $50
All Contributions Gratefully Accepted
Please send checks to:
Friends of Garey Bies
P.O. Box 101
Sister Bay, WI 54234
RSVP to Garey at 920 854 2811
Fundraiser for Rep. Warren Petryk
6:30 p.m.
Old Lowes Creek School House,
1100 block of E. Lowes Creek Road,
Eau Claire.
An Old-Fashioned Pie & Ice Cream Social and Fundraiser for Rep. Warren Petryk
Minimum contribution: $100.00 per person Mail contributions to: Warren Petryk for Assembly, S.9840 Hwy. 93, Eleva, WI. 54738
Citizens for Josh Zepnick
Campaign Roll Out
3173 S. 49th Street, Milwaukee
4pm - 7pm
RSVP or Questions: repzepnick@gmail.com or 414-708-9479
Checks Payable: Citizens for Zepnick
3367 S. 25th Street Milwaukee WI 53215
Online : Citizens Josh Zepnick
*All Contributions Welcomed
Gordon Hintz Campaign Kickoff
Kiwanis Shelter #1, Menominee Park, Oshkosh, WI 54901 5pm - 7:30pm Host and Sponsor Levels: Host: $500 Sponsor: $250 Advocate: $100 RSVP : hintzforassembly@yahoo.com or 920-232-0805 Checks Payable: Hintz for Assembly P.O. Box 1424 Oshkosh, WI 54903 Online: http://hintzforassembly.com/donate.html *All Contributions Welcomed Reception for AG J.B. Van Hollen
5 p.m. The Waterfront Restaurant & Tavern, 328 Front St. S., La Crosse. Hosts: $1,000, $500, & $250 Guests: $50 per person Please make checks payable to: Van Hollen for Attorney General Contact: Mike Austin at (608) 661-0777 or mike@persuasionpartners.com Friday, June 29th
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