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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: June 5th, 2012
SUBJECT: Recall Election Update
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RECALL: Walker Wins Recall Election
Tonight Governor Scott Walker became the first Governor in US History to survive a recall election, and he survived it in convincing fashion with all of the major news networks calling the race shortly before 9:00 pm tonight.
This was historic turnout throughout the state today looking more like a presidential race in turns of turnout than a gubernatorial election.
In 2010 Governor Walker carried 59 counties and captured 1,124,456 votes, the highest vote total of any Republican candidate for governor. (Previous record was 1994 Governor Thompson re-elect managed by Capitol Consultants Managing Partner Bill McCoshen). Tom Barrett captured 47% of the vote, 1,001,082 votes and 13 counties.
Tonight, with 95% of precincts reporting, Governor Walker increased his margin of victory over Mayor Barrett from 2010 by capturing 1,226,780 votes, 61 counties with 54% of the vote. (Note these numbers will change when the final votes are tallied)
Of note in the top 10 vote performing counties where results were available, here is a quick peak at where Walker's performance in 2010 compared to 2012:
- Milwaukee: 2010- Walker (38%) 127,828, 2012-Walker (37%) 121,523
- Dane : 2010- Walker (31%) 68,217, 2012-Walker 31% (71,888)
- Waukesha: 2010-Walker (71%) 133,274, 2012-Walker 72% (137,289)
- Brown: 2010- Walker 49,562 (56%), 2012-Walker 60% (59,931)
- Racine: 2010- Walker 40,808 (56%)
- Outagamie: 2010- Walker 35,654 (54%) 2012-Walker 62% (38,808)
- Winnebago: 2010- Walker 33,044 (54%), 2012-Walker 56% (36,099)
- Rock: 2010- Walker 23,810 (46%), 2012-Walker 44% (19,463)
- Washington: 2010-Walker 44,219 (75%), 2012-Walker 75% (40,161)
- Marathon: 2010-Walker 28,514 (58%), 2012-Walker 62% (31,624)
Of note in Dane and Milwaukee counties, Walker captured the same % of the vote in 2012, that he did in 2010.
Dane 2010
- Barrett 149,652 (69%)
- Walker 68,217 (31%)
Dane 2012
- Walker 71,888 (31%)
- Barrett 160,353 (69%)
Milwaukee County 2010
- Barrett 208,565
- Walker 127,828 (38%)
Milwaukee County 2012 (95% of precincts reporting)
- Barrett 207,205 (63%)
- Walker 121,523 (37%)
Governor Walker's Statement on the Election Results
"Bringing our state together will take some time, but I hope to start right away," Governor Walker said. "It is time to put our differences aside and figure out ways that we can move Wisconsin forward."
Governor Walker also spoke about his immediate plans, saying he will meet with his cabinet tomorrow to discuss job creation measures and other actions he will take to bring Wisconsin together, encourage economic growth, and continue to address education reform.
Milwaukee Mayor Barrett's Statement on the Election Results
 "We are a state that is deeply divided," Barrett said, and urged his supporters and those who backed Walker to to continue "lively discourse" and to listen to the other side. "At the end of the day we need to do what is right for Wisconsin families."
Barrett thanked his supporters and asked them to stay active in Wisconsin politics.
"For those of you who went out in the cold to collect signatures, never ever stop doing what you think is right," Barrett said. "For those of you who care about this city please stay involved."
"This has been the most amazing experience of our lives," Barrett said. "We have seen this democracy come alive."
Governor Walker's Calendar for tomorrow, June 6th:
Governor Walker to Begin Wisconsin Forward Tour at Steelwind Industries
Will Also Hold a Cabinet Meeting
Madison-Today Governor Walker will visit Steelwind Industries in Oak Creek and have a Cabinet meeting at the State Capitol. Credentialed members of the media are welcome but must pre-register to Cullen.werwie@wi.gov.
June 6, 2012
Steelwind Industries
8:50 a.m.
7550 S. 10th Street
Oak Creek, WI 53154
Cabinet Meeting
2:10 p.m.
Wisconsin State Capitol
Governor's Conference Room
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RECALL: Exit Polling
Tonight was a historic election in Wisconsin as well as the nation because only three states have ever previously had a governor face a recall and only 19 states in the nation allow recall elections. So this election will be studied for years to come.
Because of the historic nature of the election and the national attention we benefited in getting the national media conducting exit polls of the race and giving us a peek into the mind of and learning who were the June 5th recall voters in Wisconsin, and they look very similar to the makeup of the electorate of voters in 2010.
They think recall elections should only be for cases of official misconduct:
According to the exit polls, only 3 out of 10 recall voters said recall elections are appropriate for any reason and 6 out of 10 said they should only be for official misconduct. Almost 90% of Republicans said that recall elections are never appropriate or only appropriate in the case of official misconduct. A slight majority of Democratic voters said recall elections are appropriate "for any reason." Divided on changes to collective bargaining law: Wisconsin recall voters almost equally divided on the collective bargaining law changes with 50% approving of the change and 48% disapproving of the change. 89% of Walker voters approved of the changes and 90% of Barrett voters disapproved of the changes. Approve of the job Walker is doing on creating jobs: Wisconsin recall voters were slightly more approving of the job Governor Walker has done in creating jobs than disapproving, with 53% approving of his efforts and 46% disapproving. Walker voters were approving by 93% and Barrett voters disapproving. DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN In 2010 Walker captured 56% of the men vote, and 47% of the women vote according to exit polls from that election. Tonight he improved on that number with men to 58% and lost 1% of women to 46%. Another key to his success in 2010 was his performance among independents, where Walker captured 54% in 2010 and tonight captured 53%. 2012 - Men: 58% Walker/41% Barrett
- Women: 46% Walker/54% Barrett
- White: 55% Walker/44% Barrett
- Black: 5% Walker/94% Barrett
- 18-29: 46% Walker/52% Barrett
- 30-44: 55% Walker/45% Barrett
- 45-64: 51% Walker/48% Barrett
- 65 and older: 54% Walker/46% Barrett
- College degree: 47% Walker/53% Barrett
- No college degree: 55% Walker/45% Barrett
- Liberal: 13% Walker/86% Barrett
- Moderate: 44% Walker/55% Barrett
- Conservative: 85% Walker/15% Barrett
- Democrat: 8% Walker/91% Barrett
- Republican: 94% Walker/6% Barrett
- Independent: 53% Walker/46% Barrett
A couple other sites to look at for more in-depth exit poll analysis: |
RECALL Election Reaction
Assembly Joint Finance Committee Chairman Robin Vos (R-Burlington)
 | | Finance Chair Robin Vos |
State Rep. Robin Vos (R-Burlington) said Tuesday night there was a silent majority in the state that "was silent until today."
"And the results can be called nothing less than deafening," Vos said.
"I have no doubt that when we see the final results, the silent majority got their one chance to speak at the ballot box and we are going to be able to see those results, which I think by the end of the night will see the vast majority of Wisconsinites believe that we should move forward," said Vos, co-chiar of the powerful Joint Finance Committee. "Which means no more recalls. Let Gov. Walker complete his term. And let's get back to work."
Source
Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D-Kenosha) | | Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca |
"The results of tonight's election show that Wisconsin remains a state divided. On both sides, I believe the people are ready to end the polarization of the past 17 months. However, we will obviously continue to press forward on creating jobs, strengthening our schools, protecting workers' rights and re-establishing a clean, open and transparent government. "While I share the disappointment many are feeling, we must recognize the extraordinary and historic efforts that led us to tonight. Having watched hundreds of thousands of our citizens work so hard and join together in exercising their democratic rights, I have renewed confidence in our ability to restore Wisconsin values. "There is a lot of work to do in healing our divided state. I hope Gov. Walker understands and stays true to his pledge to build consensus and be more inclusive going forward. And I will continue to extend my hand to work on the issues the people of Wisconsin care about - creating good-paying jobs, closing the skills gap and ensuring a quality education for our students." |
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RECALL: Control of the State Senate
The current Wisconsin Legislative Session is adjourned until the new Legislature is seated in January 2013. However control of the State Senate was up for grabs tonight. Going into the night, Republicans controlled the State Senate with a 17-16 majority.
Three of the races have been called at the time of this email with the Republicans maintaining control of those three seats. One race, the 21st Senate District (Racine-incumbent Sen. Van Wanggaard) is too close to call still. So control of the State Senate is still in play at this time.
We will send an update once that race is decided.
Senate District 13 (Beaver Dam area):
 | | Sen. Scott Fitzgerald (R) |
Republican:
- Scott Fitzgerald (incumbent) 58%
Democratic:
Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, who had not faced a serious election challenge since being elected to the State Senate in 1994, defeated his opponent Lori Compas, the organizer of the recall campaign against him and owner of her own writing and photography business.
SD 13 Election History
- Gov. Walker got 62.3% of the vote in Fitzgerald's district in 2010.
- Pres. Obama got 47.8% of the vote in Fitzgerald's district in 2008.
Senate District-21 (Racine-area, Wanggaard incumbent)
 | | Sen. Van Wanggaard (R) |
Primary Results:
Republican:
- Van Wanggaard (incumbent)
Democratic:
The race in the 21st Senate district is a rematch of the 2010 election when then Republican candidate Van Wanggaard defeated incumbent Sen. John Lehman (D-Racine) in 2010 to capture the seat.
 | | John Lehman (D) |
SD 21 Election History
- Walker got 53.7% of the vote in Wanggaard's district in 2010.
- Obama got 55.3% of the vote in Wanggaard's district in 2008.
About Wanggaard:
Wanggaard was a member of the Racine Police Department for almost 30 years before he was injured in pursuit of a fugitive who was fleeing custody and forced to retire. He then served for 10 years on the Racine County Board as a Supervisor.
http://vanwanggaard.com/
About Lehman:
Lehman is a former high school history and economics teacher who served five terms in the State Assembly (1997-2007) and 1 term in the State Senate (2007-2011).
http://www.lehman4senate.com/
Senate District-23 (Chippewa Falls, Moulton incumbent):
 | | Sen. Terry Moulton (R) |
Republican:
- Terry Moulton (incumbent) (57%)
Democratic:
Senator Terry Moulton successfully defended his senate seat from his 2008 political opponent, former State Representative Kristen Dexter.
SD 23 Election History
- Walker got 55.5% of the vote in Moulton's district in 2010.
- Obama got 55.1% of the vote in Moulton's district in 2008.
Senate District-29 (Wausau-area, Galloway was incumbent):
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Rep. Jerry Petrowski (R)
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In the open 29th Senate District, State Representative Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon) defeated Assistant Assembly Minority Leader Donna Seidel (D-Wausau) in the race to fulfill the term of State. Sen. Galloway. SD 29 Electoral History: - Gov. Walker got 56.9% of the vote in Galloway's district in 2010.
- Pres. Obama got 53.4% of the vote in Galloway's district in 2008.
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