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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.
FROM: Capitol Consultants, Inc.
& Wimmer Company, S.C.
DATE: May 18, 2012
SUBJECT: Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
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RECALL: Gubernatorial Race Polling
In the last week five polls and/or polling memos have been released in the Governor's race.
Here are the topline results or key points made in each of them with a link to the actual source. They are listed in chronological order of release starting with the most recent poll/memo:
Barrett Campaign Polling Memo (GarinHartYang Research Group)
Source: http://wispolitics.com/1006/barrett_memo_5_17_12.pdf
- The memo doesn't release any head to head comparisons between Walker & Barrett, but states that they were in the field in the Milwaukee Media Market on 5/14-15 and "polling shows the Barrett campaign has stabilized and the gubernatorial match-up has tightened considerably."
Marquette University Law School Poll (Charles Franklin pollster)
Source: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
- Governor Walker has taken a 6 point lead versus Mayor Barrett in the latest MU Law School Poll. The poll conducted May 9-12, has Gov. Walker at 50% and Mayor Barrett at 44% among likely voters. In the April MU Survey, Walker led by just 1 point, 47% to 46% among likely voters.
- Among registered voters Gov. Walker leads Barrett 51% to 43%. In the April survey Barrett led Walker 47% to 46% among registered voters.
- 50% approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing to 46% who disapprove.
- 50% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Gov. Walker to 44% who have an unfavorable opinion. Net 6% positive.
- 37% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Mayor Barrett to 45% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Net 8% negative.
- When asked about the direction of the State, 50% said they feel things are going generally in the right direction, compared to 45% who believe things are on the wrong track.
Daily Kos Election Survey (PPP Polling)
Source: http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2012/5/11/WI/123/MjpEP
- Governor Walker maintains a 5 point lead in the Daily Kos survey, 50% to Mayor Barrett's 45% among likely voters. 50% to 45% was the same split the Daily Kos reported in their April survey.
- Among registered voters, Gov. Walker has a 49% to 45% lead.
- 50% of likely voters approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing to 47% who disapprove.
- 44% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Mayor Barrett to 47% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Net 3% negative.
Rasmussen Reports (Rasmussen Reports)
Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/wisconsin/wisconsin_recall_election_walker_50_barrett_45
- Governor Walker maintains a 5 point lead in the Rasmussen Reports survey, 50% to Mayor Barrett's 45% among likely voters conducted on May 9th.
- 49% of likely voters approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing to 47% who disapprove.
- 51% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Gov. Walker to 48% unfavorable. Net 3% positive.
- 48% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Mayor Barrett to 47% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Net 1% positive.
We Ask America (American Research Group)
Source: http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/14/recall-fever/
- Governor Walker has a 9 point lead in the May 13th automated survey conducted by We Ask America. Their survey has Gov. Walker at 52% to Mayor Barrett's 43%.
- No additional details were released with this survey other than topline results.
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JOBS JOBS JOBS
Its the number one issue for voters and this week the candidates for Governor, the media and political observers spent a considerable time talking about jobs, specifically where Wisconsin stacks in job growth and unemployment numbers.
The discussion started when a YouTube video posted by the Department of Revenue started to get some attention in political circles and the media. In the 15 minute video, state chief economist John Koskinen, gives a presentation to the Association of Government Accountants on Wisconsin's Jobs Outlook in 2012 and 2013.
In his presentation Koskinen discusses the following:
- Wisconsin's unemployment rate is significantly lower than the nationwide average and falling rapidly
- Why the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) report of 30,000 job loss in Wisconsin is misleading and inconsistent with other BLS surveys and economic data
- The different ways BLS measures employment through its surveys
- What the hard count of unemployment records has to say
- GPR revenue collections running ahead of estimates
- Wisconsin's stronger personal income growth and expanded job growth
 | | John Koskinen - Wisconsin Jobs Outlook for 2012 and 2013 |
On Wednesday, Department of Workforce Development Secretary Reggie Newson released the Department's report on the 2011 Wisconsin actual jobs data based on reports from nearly 160,000 employers, which argued that the state added over 23,300 jobs between December 2010 and December 2011.
According to the DWD release:
"The year-over-year change in actual job counts as reported by some 160,000 Wisconsin employers shows a net gain of 23,321 jobs from December 2010 through December 2011. Meanwhile, the BLS' Current Employment Statistics data series estimated a net loss of 33,900 jobs over the year. That puts the CES monthly estimates off from actual, employer-reported job counts by 57,221 jobs." http://wispolitics.com/index.Iml?Article=269966
DWD argues that the compilation of data from the Quarterly Current Employment Statistics are more accurately than the monthly surveys that the BLS puts out:
The QCEW is a comprehensive count of jobs, as it includes reports from nearly all Wisconsin employers. This data series is distinct from the Current Employment Survey (CES), which estimates jobs based on a survey of roughly 5,500 employers (3.5 percent of Wisconsin businesses) and is released in preliminary form each month. "The BLS' monthly job estimates are volatile and not in line with the economic growth we see throughout the state," Secretary Newson said. "And, because workforce data is important to job creators as they contemplate key decisions for their businesses, Wisconsin employers - and job seekers - have the most to lose when volatile data is represented as a reliable indicator." http://wispolitics.com/index.Iml?Article=269966
The Walker campaign pointed to reaction from independent economists, including Andrew Reschovsky from UW Madison, that their method of calculation of the jobs picture using the QCES numbers versus the month BLS survey is more accurate. http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/news/wisconsin/economists-say-new-job-numbers-more-accurate
The Barrett campaign responded to the DWD announcement with the following statement:
Barrett for Wisconsin issued the following statement from Communications Director Phil Walzak on Walker's transparent attempt to distract from his worst-in-the-nation jobs record by ignoring the standard, trusted job statistics and instead highlighting unverified figures he never once spotlighted, and aren't used by virtually any other expert or official across America. "When it has suited him, Scott Walker has happily referenced the standard jobs statistics that basically everyone in the country uses. But since these regular, trusted numbers clearly show that Wisconsin leads the nation in jobs loss on his watch, Walker is desperate to distract from his worst-in-the-country jobs record. In a move that is virtually unheard of, Scott Walker is suddenly trotting out an altogether new set of unverified numbers - three weeks before an election - to mask his economic failure. Walker ran on a campaign promise to create 250,000 jobs and 10,000 businesses over four years. He is failing on both counts and is desperate to change the conversation on jobs with an election looming."
On Thursday, DWD released the BLS monthly statistics highlighting the decline in unemployment to 6.7%, and continuing to take exception with the BLS's reporting of the preliminary job numbers which show a decline of 6,100 for the month of April.
"Wisconsin's unemployment rate continued its decline, dropping to a preliminary rate of 6.7 percent in April from 6.8 percent in March and 6.9 percent the previous two months," Secretary Reggie Newson said. "A year ago, the rate was 7.5 percent. Meanwhile, we had more people employed and fewer unemployed in April 2012 compared to the previous year." Preliminary seasonally adjusted data show private-sector job numbers declined by 6,200 in April and by 11,100 over the year, but grew by a net 10,100 since December 2011. http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/dwd/newsreleases/2012/unemployment/120517_april_state.pdf The Barrett campaign responded to the announcement with the following statement:
Barrett for Wisconsin issued the following statement from Communications Director Phil Walzak on news today from the state Department of Workforce Development that under Gov. Walker's failed leadership, Wisconsin lost 6,200 private sector jobs in April. "Gov. Walker can trot out all the alternate data he wants, but the numbers are the numbers. By the statistics used by everyone else, including Gov. Walker himself up until just recently, Wisconsin lost 6,200 jobs last month under his failed leadership. Wisconsin has finished dead last in a number of job creating statistics during his tenure as governor. Perhaps if Scott Walker had spent more time focusing on jobs instead of dividing-and-conquering or jetting around the country as a right-wing rock star to the rich, Wisconsin wouldn't be bleeding jobs." http://wispolitics.com/index.Iml?Article=270175
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RECALL: Democratic Primary Post-Mortem
Just a quick wrap up on the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary from last week. The main story coming out of Tuesday night on the Democratic side of the ballot, was the size of Mayor Tom Barrett's win over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Mayor Barrett ended up winning by 24% over Falk and capturing almost 60% of the Democratic Primary vote. This is quite a contrast to the competitive 3-way Democratic primary in 2002, when then Attorney General Jim Doyle captured the nomination with 38%, to Barrett's 34% and Falk's 27%.
One of the keys to Doyle's success in 2002 was limiting the size of the victories of Barrett in Milwaukee (47.3% to Doyle's 32.2%) and Falk in Dane County (50.2% to Doyle's 32.5%), allowing him to make up those vote deficits in the small vote producing counties outstate.
In 2012, Barrett ran up the vote totals in Milwaukee county, capturing 72% of the vote there and sizably defeating Falk in Dane county 62% to 31%, where she was previously the county's longest serving county executive.
In comparing turnout out to previous Democratic primaries, a couple of observations:
- Milwaukee county's percent of the vote was the 2nd highest of recent Democratic primaries, 19% compared to almost 27% in 2002.
- Dane county's percent of the vote was 15.73%, the highest of the last four Democratic primaries.
- Half of the vote was concentrated in 6 counties, the smallest concentration of votes to equal 50% since the 2002 election when it only took 5 counties.
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RECALL: Republican Primary Post-Mortem
The other big story coming out of last Tuesday's Primary Election was the turnout for Governor Scott Walker, in what was a meaningless election against token opposition only to place Governor Walker officially on the ballot for the recall election.
Going into election night, speculation was over what impact Republican crossover votes may have in the Democratic Primary, and if enough Republicans would crossover to support Kathleen Falk, the perceived weaker candidate in polling versus Governor Walker. However turnout among voters voting for Governor Scott Walker almost equaled the same total as the combined Democratic Primary turnout.
Was there any significant crossover vote that still took place last Tuesday? One theory is that there was still significant crossover vote because the votes in the Lt. Governor Primary were 87,792 more than in the Dem. Lt. Governor Primary.
- Dem. Gubernatorial Primary turnout was - 670,278
- Dem. Lt. Gov. Primary Turnout was- 758,070
If you assume all DEM Gov. Primary voters voted in DEM Lt. Gov. Primary* 87,792 more voters voted in DEM Lt. Gov Primary than in DEM Gov. Primary. If you assume those are all for fake DEM Lt. Gov. Candidate Weix votes (Milwaukee and Madison Conservative Talk Radio suggestion)
- Weix received 197,052 votes
- Subtract over votes (87,792) and Fake GOP candidate Weix still receives 109,260 votes from individuals who voted in DEM Primary for Gov and then for him.
Could there have been 109,260 crossover GOP votes last night where they voted for Falk or Barrett and then the GOP fake Lt. Gov. candidate? We have heard anecdotal evidence to support this.
Otherwise you are assuming that many DEM voters did not vote in Lt. GOV Primary and just dropped off. And we have also heard anecdotal evidence to support this as well.
Look at some counties:
- Dane County #s support that all DEMS voted for both Lt. Gov and Gov., 6,688 voted in DEM Gov more than DEM Lt. GOV
- Waukesha County #s only show a potential of around 6,000 crossover votes.- 15,672 voted in DEM LT Gov more than DEM Gov., subtract from Weix, +5,950 crossover potential.
- Ozaukee County- 2,886 voted more in DEM LT GOV than DEM GOV. Subtract those from WEIX total, and you have 1,524 potential crossover votes.
- Brown County- 7,103 voted more in DEM LT GOV than DEM GOV. Subtract those from WEIX total and you have 1,634 potential crossover votes not attributed to Walker total.
No way to prove this or any other theories, but interesting to see such a significant difference in the vote because of the format of this Primary Election.
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Ad Round Up
New ads are popping up daily in the Governor's race. We have tried to compile all of them below, but just in case we missed any or if you want to look at some previous ads, below are the two campaigns YouTube channels for direct links to their ads.
Governor
The Walker campaign released this ad, entitled "Jobs" on the heels of a new report from the Department of Workforce Development saying Wisconsin added jobs in 2011 and 2012.
 | | Jobs |
The Barrett campaign released this ad called "Guitar Hero" that talks calls Gov. Walker a rock star to the far right and Tea Party movement.
 | | Guitar Hero |
Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce is up with a pair of ads supporting the changes the Walker Administration made and stating that Wisconsin "cannot afford to spin our wheels again."
 | | WMC IMC Issue Ad: Uphill |
And touting the release of the new job numbers by the Walker Administration.
 | | WMC IMC Issue Ad: Fact Check |
The Republican Governor's Association (RGA) released the following ad entitled "Time Machine" comparing Mayor Barrett to former Governor Jim Doyle.
 | | Time Machine |
The Barrett campaign released an ad called "How to rip apart Wisconsin--By Scott Walker." The ad highlights issues including cuts to education, equal pay, college tuition and taxes on seniors.
 | | How to rip apart Wisconsin -- By Scott Walker |
The Ending Spending Action Fund started airing an ad called "Courage in Wisconsin" praising Governor Walker's "courage" to make tough fiscal decisions for Wisconsin.  | | Courage in Wisconsin: Scott Walker |
The Greater Wisconsin Committee is up with an ad against Scott Walker called "Are you serious?" Talking about equal pay for women.  | | Scott Walker, are you serious? Less pay because you're a woman? |
State Senate The Greater Wisconsin Committee is up with a new ad against State Senator Van Wanggaard similar to ads that they ran against State Senator Terry Moulton.  | | Greater Wisconsin Committee |
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Fundraisers Coming Up
Monday, May 21st
Fundraiser for Rep. Murtha
4:30 p.m.
Griggs Aviation (North End),
625 W Hanger Road,
New Richmond.
With special guest Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen
Please RSVP to jkheebink@hotmail.com
All contributions gratefully accepted.
Please send checks to:
Friends of John Murtha
2283 20th Avenue
Baldwin, WI 54002
Happy hour with Lori Compas
5 p.m.
Argus Bar & Grille,
123 E. Main St.,
Madison.
Suggested contribution - $25/person, $40/couple
We would be grateful for your presence as well as any contribution to Lori's campaign.
Hors d'ouevres will be provided. Cash bar available.
Please RSVP @ kstuerk@gmail.com Jagler Campaign Kick Off 7:00pm Silver Eagle Saloon Watertown Special Guest: Charlie Sykes Tuesday, May 22nd Barrett for Wisconsin
Progreba Restaurant
5:30-7:00 pm
1232 Avon Street
LaCrosse, WI
RSVP to: barrettforwisconsin.com/event/lax
Wednesday, May 23rd Birthday fundraiser for Kenosha Co. Exec. Jim Kreuser
5 p.m.
Veterans of Foreign Wars,
6618 39th Ave.,
Kenosha.
Refreshments and hors d'oeuvres will be served.
All donations gratefully accepted; no gifts or corporate checks please.
Please make checks payable to: Friends of Jim Kreuser, 3505 14th Place, Kenosha, WI 53144
Thursday, May 24th Fundraiser for Rep. Lee Nerison
5:30 p.m.
Badger Crossing,
909 Front St.,
Cashton
All Contributions Gratefully Accepted.
Please send checks to:
Friends of Lee Nerison
S3035 County Road B
Westby, WI 54667
Please RSVP to Lee at (608) 606-2334
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