Barrett Widens Lead in Democratic Primary
According to the state-wide poll conducted the last week in April, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has widened his lead to 17 points in the Democratic Recall Primary over Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk to a 38 percent to 21 percent margin among those who said they would vote in Tuesday's election. Eight percent favored Secretary of State Doug La Follette and only 6 percent backed state Senator Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma).
The results of the most Marquette poll showed Barrett expanding his lead over the Democratic field significantly from March where Barrett led Falk 36-29 percent in a similar survey that was taken the week before Barrett entered the race in late March.
Tonight, at 7 p.m. on Wisconsin Public Television, the four Democratic candidates for Governor will participate in a televised debate just days before the Tuesday, May 8th, election.
To view the debate online, click
here.
Walker and Barrett in a Close Race
The Marquette Poll also showed incumbent Governor Scott Walker and Democratic front-runner Barrett in a very close race for the upcoming June 5th general election. The poll found 47 percent of registered voters backed Barrett in a match up with Walker, while 46 percent supported the Governor. When the poll was tested for likely voters, Walker led by a 48 to 47 percent margin.
When asked about the other leading Democratic candidate Kathleen Falk, Walker led Falk 49-42 percent among registered voters and 49-43 percent among likely voters.
Obama Widens Leads Over Romney
The survey also found President Barack Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 42 percent six months before the November election, which is a small change from the 48-43 percent matchup in March just prior to Romney's win in the Wisconsin Republican primary.
Voter Interest Increases
According to Marquette University Law School analysis, Wisconsin voters have been very engaged in the political process over the past year and half since Governor Walker has been in office.
The poll found that just over 50 percent of the state's residents said they had talked to other people and tried to convince them why they should vote for or against a particular candidate. Moreover, 26 percent said they had put up a yard sign or bumper sticker, and 20 percent had contributed money to a candidate. Eighteen percent said they had attended a rally or demonstration. Thirty-eight percent said they had signed a recall petition over the past sixteen months, including last summer's state senate recalls and those this year for senate, governor, or lieutenant governor this year. Fifty-eight percent say they talk about politics with family or friends at least once a week, and 39 percent say they do so with co-workers.
One interesting and somewhat telling point from the poll said that the political involvement and conflict of the last year have also taken a toll on the political discourse between Wisconsin residents. Interestingly, twenty-nine percent say there is someone in their life that they have stopped talking to about politics due to disagreements over the recall election or the Governor (http://law.marquette.edu/poll/).
Methodology of Marquette Poll
The state-wide poll interviewed 705 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone April 26-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. For the 451 respondents who said they would vote in the Democratic recall primary, the margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. As for results for "likely voters," those who said they were certain to vote, the sample for the June recall is 561 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. There were 399 likely voters in the May 8 Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points.
The view the entire survey and its full results and breakdowns by demographic groups, click the follwing link http://law.marquette.edu/poll.
Recall Primaries for State Senate on the Ballot
Four state Senate recall primary elections will also be on the ballot on Tuesday where the state Senate Republican incumbent is facing a recall.
The four primaries will see "fake Democrats" running in each of the races against the candidate that was recruited by and has the backing of the Democratic Party. Capitol insiders believe that the reason for the fake candidates was to ensure the general election for each seat will also be held on June 5th, which is the same day Govenor Walker and Lieutenant Governor Kleefisch face a recall.
The four Recall state Senate primary races are:
13th District (Dodge and Jefferson Counties area) held by GOP Majority Leader state Senator Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau). The Democratic candidates in the primary are Lori Compas and Gary Ellerman (fake Democrat).
21st District (Racine County) held by state Senator Van Wanggaard (R-Racine). The Democratic candidates in the primary are former state Senator John Lehman and Tamra Varebrook (fake Democrat).
23rd District (Eau Claire and Chippewa Counties) held by state Senator Terry Moulton (R-Chippewa Falls). The Democratic candidates facing a primary are former state Representative Kristin Dexter and James Engel (fake Democrat).
29th District (Marathon and Price Counties) seat was held by former state Senator Pam Galloway (R-Wausau) who resigned in March. State Representative Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon) has filed to run for the seat and facing no primary on Tuesday. Democrats in next week's primary are state Representative Donna Seidel (D-Wausau) and Jim Buckley (fake Democrat).
