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Capitol Notes
Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
TO: Clients/Friends of Capitol Consultants, Inc./Wimmer & Company, S.C.

FROM:  Capitol Consultants, Inc.
              & Wimmer Company, S.C.

DATE:  April 20, 2012

SUBJECT:   Wisconsin Political and Legislative Update
 
In This Issue
RECALL: Gubernatorial Race Update
RECALL: Control of the State Senate
Campaign Ad Round Up
November General Election Candidate Updates
Presidential Race Update
Upcoming Fundraisers
Stay Connected
 
RECALL:  Gubernatorial Race Update 
 
This week the Progressive news and community action website Daily Kos released a Wisconsin statewide survey looking at the Governor's race and the Democratic primary.  The survey was  conducted by the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey research firm. (Link to full Daily Kos survey)

Ballot Test Governor's Race
In match-ups between the major Democratic candidates and Gov. Walker, Gov. Walker is leading Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by 5% and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk by 7%.

Tom Barrett (D): 45  
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50  
Hari Trivedi (I): 2 
Undecided: 3 (3)

  

Kathleen Falk (D): 43  

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50

Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 3 (5)

 

 

In February, the Daily Kos/PPP poll had Governor Walker trailing both Barrett and Falk, 49%-46% and 47%-46% respectively. 

  

PPP pollster Tom Jensen, gave the following analysis in the Daily Kos release:


The biggest change is probably that this was our first time using a likely voter screen, We found with almost all of the recall elections last summer that the electorate just wasn't as Democratic as 2008, even if people were at least more excited about the recalls than they were about the 2010 elections. Gov. Scott Walker gains a few points as a result of that.

The other thing is that independents have flipped from our last poll, from supporting Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett by 12 to going for Walker by three. We've seen independents go back and forth on Walker several times over the last year, though I'm not certain what causes that. Walker's been very aggressive about getting on the air and that may have helped firm up his standing, especially as Democrats fight amongst each other over their nominee.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dems gain some ground back once they're on the same page after the primary, just as Mitt Romney has gained on Barack Obama here with Republicans on the same page after Rick Santorum's exit.
 

Behind the numbers:

Here's some additional observations from the Toplines and Cross Tabs from the statewide survey:

GOVERNOR WALKER JOB APPROVAL: 

Governor Walker enjoys a small but net positive job approval (difference between approve and disapprove) and is above 50% for job approval.  He is most positive with men and GOP, +16% and +83%.  Trails with women and DEMS, -7% and -80%, and mixed with IND -1%. 

  • 51% Approve/48% Disapprove
  • Women 46%/53%
  • Men 55%/39%
  • Dem 9%/89%
  • IND 49%/50%
  • GOP 96%/3%
 

MAYOR BARRETT FAVORABILITY: 

Mayor Barrett has a small net negative favorability (-4%, difference between favorable and unfavorable), has positive favorability with Democrats (+59%) and Independents (+4%), has mixed favorability with women (+1%) and trails with men (-9%) and Republicans (-75%).

    • 41% Fav/45% Unfav
    • Women 42%/41%
    • Men 40%/49%
    • Dem 72%/13%
    • IND 45%/41%
    • GOP 6%/81%

FORMER EXECUTIVE FALK FAVORABILITY: 

Former Executive Falk has a net negative favorability (-16%).  She has positive standing with Democrats (+54%), but is upside down with women (-7%), men (-26%), Independents (-16%) and Republicans (-86%). 

    • 36% Fav/52% Unfav
    • Women 39%/46%
    • Men 32%/58%
    • Dem 69%/15%
    • IND 35%/51%
    • GOP 3%/89%


Ballot Test: WALKER V. BARRETT:
Governor Walker leads Mayor Barrett by 5%.  Walker is strongest with men (+16%) and Republicans (+93%). Leads slightly with Independents (+3%), and trails slightly with women (-4%).  Barrett is up 81% with Democrats.

    • 50% Walker/ 45% Barrett  
    • Women 45% Walker/49% Barrett
    • Men 56% Walker/40% Barrett
    • DEM 7% Walker/88% Barrett
    • IND 48% Walker/45% Barrett
    • GOP 95% Walker/ 2% Barrett


Ballot Test: WALKER V. FALK:
Governor Walker leads former Executive Falk by 7%.  Walker's numbers against Falk are almost identical to the numbers against Barrett; +17% with men, +93% with GOP, +5% with Independents, -2% with women and -81% with Democrats.

    • 50% Walker/ 43% Falk 
    • Women 45% Walker/47% Falk
    • Men 56% Walker/39% Falk
    • DEM 8% Walker/86% Falk
    • IND 48% Walker/43% Falk
    • GOP 95% Walker/ 2% Falk


PRESIDENT OBAMA JOB APPROVAL:
President Obama's favorability is equally divided.  He is seen favorably by women +10%, Independents +5% and by Democrats +82%.  He is upside down with males -9% and Republicans -88%.

    • 47% Approve/47% Disapprove
    • Women 53%/43%
    • Men 42%/53%
    • Dem 89%/7%
    • IND 48%/43%
    • GOP 5%/93%


FORMER GOVERNOR ROMNEY FAVORABILITY:
Former Governor Mitt Romney has a net negative favorability, -11%.  He trails in all demographics except for Republicans where he is +65%.  He is -18% with women, -2% with men, -23% with Independents and -74% with Democrats.

    • 38% Fav/49% Unfav
    • Women 34%/52%
    • Men 43%/45%
    • Dem 9%/83%
    • IND 30%/53%
    • GOP 77%/12%
 


Ballot Test: OBAMA V. ROMNEY: 

If the election were held today, Pres. Obama leads Gov. Romney by 6%, buoyed by strong support from women (+12%) and Independents (+17%).

    • 50% Obama/44% Romney
    • Women 53% Obama/41% Romney 
    • Men 46% Obama/49% Romney 
    • DEM 91% Obama/7% Romney 
    • IND 53% Obama/36% Romney 
    • GOP 5% Obama/91% Romney  

Ballot Test Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
The Daily Kos survey also surveyed a sample of likely Democratic Primary voters for their preference in the May 8th Democratic Gubernatorial Primary.

 

Mayor Barrett leads former Executive Falk by 14%.  

Tom Barrett (D): 38  
Kathleen Falk (D): 24   
Doug La Follette (D): 9   
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 6   
Undecided: 22  

 

Since a the February poll that Daily Kos released on the Democratic Primary, Barrett has dropped -7% from 45% to 38%, Falk has moved up 6% to 24%.  La Follette dropped to single digits from 14% to 9% and Vinehout has remained at 6% of the vote.

Ballot Test: Democratic Primary:
In looking at the top two candidates, Barrett leads Falk with women (+7%), men (+15%), Democrats (+19%), Independents (+14%) and GOP (+2%).

    • 38% Barrett/ 24% Falk 
    • Women 37% Barrett/24% Falk
    • Men 40% Barrett/25% Falk
    • DEM 49% Barrett/30% Falk
    • IND 37% Barrett/23% Falk
    • GOP 17% Barrett/15% Falk

  

On Thursday, the Barrett campaign released a summary sheet of a poll that their campaign conducted that they stated confirms the results of the Daily Kos's Democratic primary poll.

  

Their survey, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang had the following results:

  • Tom Barrett (D): 41
  • Kathleen Falk (D): 27 
  • Doug La Follette (D): 7 
  • Kathleen Vinehout (D): 4 
  • Undecided: 21

The Barrett campaign memo can be found here 

 

RECALL: Control of the State Senate

   

The WI State Senate currently has split 16-16 control, with the retirement of Sen. Pam Galloway.  Republicans need to win all four races (all seats are currently controlled by or were Republican-held seats during the 2011-2012 Legislative Session) to regain control of the State Senate.  Democrats only need to capture 1 seat to gain the majority.

The Progressive news and community action website Daily Kos released four Wisconsin State Senate polls this week conducted by the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey research firm.  Below are the ballot question results for all four races and below that are some observations from the cross tabs on the three races that have received the most attention. (Senate Republican Leader Fitzgerald's race is excluded).  

Of note in the cross tabs, Governor Scott Walker leads all of his Democratic gubernatorial opponents within the recall senate districts and has a positive job approval in each senate district as well.  
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk both have net negative favorabilities in all of the senate districts, and voters do not distinguish much of a difference between Falk and Barrett as an opponents to Walker, because Walker's lead over both is almost identical.

Daily Kos's pollster had the following observations on the status of the race:

  

"When we polled Wisconsin in February, we asked a question about whether Wisconsin voters generally think the state should have recall elections. Around 10% of voters who disapprove of Scott Walker also said that they don't believe in recall elections. That means for a politician to get recalled they have to be really unpopular-even if 51 or 52% of voters disapprove of you, there are enough that don't believe in recalls that you can still survive. I think Walker-and the state senators at risk-probably need to have somewhere in the range of 54-55% of voters unhappy with them to get removed from office. That's a tough bar for Democrats to reach.

 

We saw in almost all the recalls last summer-whether it was Democratic or Republican Senators being targeted-that most undecided voters moved against the recalls in the closing stretch.

  

One thing we saw in all these state senate polls is a much more GOP-friendly electorate than 2008. That suggests to me that Democratic voters are suffering from recall fatigue- this has been going on for so long and we are now so far removed from the protests in early 2011 that the passion Democratic voters have for coming out and removing these folks from office just isn't what it was a year ago. It's possible those folks could be reenergized by the campaign over the next couple months but right now Democratic interest in these elections isn't what it needs to be." http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/17/1084147/-Wisconsin-state-Senate-recall-polls-paint-a-tough-picture-but-with-one-notable-bright-spot



Ballot Test Results: 

 

Senate District-21 (Racine-area, Wanggaard incumbent)
(MoE: ±3.9%): 

  • John Lehman (D): 46
  • Van Wanggaard (R-inc): 48
  • Undecided: 5

Senate District-23 (Chippewa Falls, Moulton incumbent)
(MoE: ±3.6%):

  • Kristin Dexter (D): 41
  • Terry Moulton (R-inc): 51
  • Undecided: 8

 

Senate District-29 (Wausau-area, Galloway was incumbent)   

(MoE: ±3.6%): 

  • Donna Seidel (D): 37
  • Jerry Petrowski (R): 51
  • Undecided: 12

Senate District-13 (Beaver Dam-area) 
(MoE: ±3.5%): 

  • Lori Compas (D): 40
  • Scott Fitzgerald (R-inc): 54
  • Undecided: 6


Couple notes for reference from past elections:

Senate District 21 

  • Wanggaard defeated Lehman in 2010 with 52.52% of the vote.
  • Walker got 53.7% of the vote in Wanggaard's district in 2010.
  • Obama got 55.3% of the vote in Wanggaard's district in 2008.

Senate District 23 

  • Moulton defeated Kreitlow in 2010 with 54.2% of the vote.
  • Walker got 55.5% of the vote in Moulton's district in 2010.
  • Obama got 55.1% of the vote in Moulton's district in 2008.

Senate District 29

  • Galloway defeated Decker in 2010 with 52.26% of the vote.
  • Walker got 56.9% of the vote in Galloway's district in 2010.
  • Obama got 53.4% of the vote in Galloway's district in 2008 

Behind the numbers:

Here's some additional observations from the Cross Tabs in the three contested races looking at how the gubernatorial and presidential races are going within those targeted senate districts:

GOVERNOR WALKER JOB APPROVAL: 

Governor Walker enjoys a net positive job approval (difference between approve and disapprove) and above 50% job approval in the targeted senate districts. 

  • SD 21- 52% approve- 46% disapprove
  • SD 23- 56% approve- 43% disapprove
  • SD 29- 60% approve-39% disapprove 

 

MAYOR BARRETT FAVORABILITY: 

Mayor Barrett has a net negative favorability (difference between favorable and unfavorable) in the targeted senate districts.  

  • SD 21- 42% Favorable- 47%Unfavorable
  • SD 23- 33% Favorable- 50% Unfavorable
  • SD 29- 33% Favorable- 50% Unfavorable

FORMER EXECUTIVE FALK FAVORABILITY: 

Former Executive Falk has a net negative favorability (difference between favorable and unfavorable) in the targeted senate districts.

  • SD 21- 35% Favorable- 53% Unfavorable
  • SD 23- 33% Favorable- 55% Unfavorable
  • SD 29- 27% Favorable- 55% Unfavorable


Ballot Test: WALKER V. BARRETT:
Governor Walker leads Mayor Barrett within all three senate districts if the election were today. 

  • SD 21- 51% Walker- 44% Barrett
  • SD 23- 55% Walker- 40% Barrett
  • SD 29- 59% Walker- 36% Barrett


Ballot Test: WALKER V. FALK:
Governor Walker leads former Executive Falk within all three senate districts if the election were held today. 

  • SD 21- 51% Walker - 43% Falk
  • SD 23- 56% Walker- 39% Falk
  • SD 29- 59% Walker- 36% Falk


PRESIDENT OBAMA JOB APPROVAL:
President Obama has a net negative job approval in all three senate districts.

  • SD 21- 41% Approve - 53% Disapprove
  • SD 23- 45% Approve- 51% Disapprove
  • SD 29- 39% Approve- 54% Disapprove


FORMER GOVERNOR ROMNEY FAVORABILITY:
Former Governor Mitt Romney has a net negative favorability in all three senate districts.

  • SD 21- 40% Favorable- 47% Unfavorable
  • SD 23- 36% Favorable- 48% Unfavorable
  • SD 29-36% Favorable- 48% Unfavorable



Ballot Test: OBAMA V. ROMNEY: 

If the election were held today, Pres. Obama and Gov. Romney are tied in the 21st, Pres. Obama is up 1% in the 23rd and Gov. Romney is up 4% in the 29th.  

  • SD 21- 47% Obama- 47% Romney
  • SD 23- 46% Obama- 45% Romney
  • SD 29- 44% Obama- 48% Romney
 

Ad Round Up 


If you're not tired of seeing them on tv, we have links to all the new ads that have been released within the last week:


Governor

The Barrett campaign released an ad titled "Ending Walker's War on Women."  
Ending Walker's War on Women 
Ending Walker's War on Women

The independent group supporting former County Executive Kathleen Falk's campaign released an titled "Best," touting Falk as the best Democratic candidate to take on Governor Scott Walker.

Wisconsin for Falk Ad:  
Wisconsin for Falk Ad: "Best"
 

 The Walker campaign released their third ad, called "Economy" since the start of the recall campaign.  This ad contrasts the Governor's record with that of his predecessor, Governor Jim Doyle.

 

Economy
Economy

 

 

The Barrett campaign at the end of last week, released their second ad of the campaign highlighting the endorsement of State Senator Jon Erpenbach (D-Middleton), who was a very visible spokesperson for the Democratic State Senators who left the state to delay action on 2011 Act 10.

 

 

Erpenbach
Erpenbach

 

 

State Senate Races 

 

Two ads were circulated over the last week regarding the 29th Senate District (Petrowski versus Seidel).

 

The most recent ad was an ad by Rep. Donna Seidel's (D-Wausau) campaign entitled "How could you, Jerry Petrowksi?"

 

 

'How Could You, Jerry Petrowski?'
'How Could You, Jerry Petrowski?'
 

 

Earlier in the week the Republican State Leadership Committee, a third party organization that supports Republican legislative campaigns, released an ad called "Donna Seidel's Wrong Recipe."

 

Donna Seidel's Wrong Recipe
Donna Seidel's Wrong Recipe

 

 

 

November General Election Updates

This week nomination papers to place candidates on the ballot for the November elections started to circulate.  All 99 members of the State Assembly and the 16 even-numbered State Senate seats are now up for election this fall.  Nomination papers are due with the required number of signatures (see below) by 5:00 p.m. on June 1st.  The accelerated timeline on the circulation of nomination papers is due to the earlier primary date this year of August 14th, 2012.

Wis. Stat. § 8.15(6) 
(c) For state senators, not less than 400 nor more than 800 electors.
(d) For representatives to the assembly, not less than 200 nor more than 400 electors.

As papers began to circulate this week, several current members of the Legislature and those considering joining those ranks have made their intentions known. 

Below are the most recent announcements with a comprehensive list of retirement announcements below that:

New announcements this week: 

 

  • Rep. Tamara Grigsby (D-Milwaukee)-  Rep. Grigsby, who is one of two Assembly Democratic members of the Joint Committee on Finance, battled a serious illness and cancer during the 2011-2012 session and announced that she will not run for re-election this week.  
  • Rep. Sandy Pasch (D-Shorewood)- Assembly Assistant Minority Leader Sandy Pasch announced that she will run for re-election in the new Assembly 10th District, currently represented by Rep. Elizabeth Coggs (D-Milwaukee).  Rep. Coggs is expected to make an announcement shortly that she is running for the State Senate, the seat currently held by Sen. Spencer Coggs who was elected City of Milwaukee Treasurer.   Rep. Pasch, through redistricting, now resides in the same district as Rep. Jim Ott (R-Mequon).  
  • Sen. Fred Risser (D-Madison)-  The nation's longest serving state legislator, State Senator Fred Risser, has announced that he is running for re-election.  Sen. Risser was first elected to the State Assembly in 1956 and elected to the State Senate in 1962. 
  •  Rep. Tony Staskunas (D-West Allis)-  Rep. Staskunas announced after serving for 16 years in the State Assembly that now was a good time to pursue other opportunities.  
  • Rep. John Steinbrink (D-Pleasant Prairie) and Rep. Samantha Kerkman (R-Paddock Lake)-  Rep. Steinbrink, through redistricting, is now in the same Assembly District as Rep. Kerkman, setting up a general election match-up between two incumbents.  Both Representatives have announced their candidacy for that seat, the 61st Assembly District.  Rep. Steinbrink's current district, the 65th Assembly District, now represents mostly the city of Kenosha.  Two candidates in the 65th Assembly District race have already emerged. Kenosha County Supervisor Dayvin Hallmon and Kenosha Alderman Tod Ohnstad are the two challengers thus far. Both are Democrats.  

Wisconsin State Assembly members leaving: 

  • Mark Pocan (D- Madison)- running for Congress (Baldwin seat) 
  • Kelda Roys (D-Madison)- running for Congress (Baldwin seat) 
  • Donna Seidel (D-Wausau) - running for State Senate (Galloway seat) 
  • Barbara Toles (D-Milwaukee)
  • Jeff Fitzgerald (R-Horicon) - running for US Senate (Kohl seat) 
  • Michelle Litjens (R-Oshkosh)
  • Dan Meyer (R-Eagle River)
  • Dick Spanbauer (R-Oshkosh)  
  • Karl Van Roy (R-Green Bay)
  • Bob Ziegelbauer (I-Manitowoc)
  • Tom Tiffany (R-Merrill)- running for State Senate (Holperin seat)
  • Mark Radcliffe (D-Black River Falls)
  • Bob Turner (D-Racine)
  • Tamara Grigsby (D-Milwaukee)
  • Tony Staskunas (D-West Allis)
  • Elizabeth Coggs (D-Milwaukee)- running for State Senate (S. Coggs seat)   

Wisconsin State Senators leaving:

  • Pam Galloway (R-Wausau)- resigned her seat
  • Jim Holperin (D-Conover)- retiring
  • Spencer Coggs (D-Milwaukee) - elected City of Milwaukee Treasurer
 

Presidential Preference Primary Post-Mortem and General Election Preview 

 

Now that the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary is essentially over we thought it would be a good time to look back at the 2008 Presidential Race nationally and in Wisconsin, do a post-mortem on the 2012 GOP Presidential Primary in Wisconsin and start to focus on indicators for the Nov. 6th, 2012 General Election.

 

In the linked slide deck you will find the following:

  • Results of the 2008 race statewide, comparisons to 2004 and where the race was at this point in 2008.
  •  Review of 2012 pre-GOP Primary election polling, the results and exit polling of note.
  • A look to November with key dates, the current status of the electoral map, and the current status of the race based on WI and national polling.     

Last week the link on this presentation didn't work, it is now corrected and can be accessed here: http://capitolconsultants.net/Domains/capitolconsultants/Documents/april2012presidentialupdate.pdf  

 

 

Fundraisers Coming Up

  

Monday, April 23rd   

 

Reception for Julie Lassa
5 p.m.
119 King St.,
Madison.
$1,000 Host
$500 Sponsor
$100 Friend
PAC accepted
For more information contact Zac at 608.260.2417 or kramer@wisdems.org  

 

Tuesday, April 24th    

Fundraiser for Tom Barrett 

5:30 p.m.  

Overture Center for the Arts
201 State Street
Madison, WI
Sponsorships Available 

Please RSVP and contribute online via www.barrettforwisconsin.com


 

Wednesday, April 25th

 

Lehman for Senate
Kenosha fundraiser
5 p.m.
Fireside Restaurant,
2801 30th Ave.,
Kenosha.
with Sen Bob Wirch
Suggested Minimum donation: $35
Host: $250, Sponsor: $100, Supporter: $50
Contact: EmilyT@wisdems.org or 414-690-0683

 


Thursday, April 19th

 

Lehman for Senate
Janesville fundraiser
5:30 p.m.
Home of Cathy Meyer,
515 St Lawrence St.,
Janesville.
with Sen Tim Cullen
Suggested Minimum donation: $35
Host: $250, Sponsor: $100, Supporter: $50

Contact: EmilyT@wisdems.org or 414-690-0683

 

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