Industry Related News
Mary Jane suggested that since we have such a diverse mailing list that I should provide a short summary of the report without the industry jargon. The paragraphs directly below in italics contain my understanding of the report.
Although consumer spending is down, core consumer spending (this doesn't include cars and autos) is in fact, exceeding pre-recession highs. With fuel prices failing consumer spending should continue to increase. Since consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, demand for supply-chain oriented industrial properties including warehouse and distribution facilities is expected to increase.
We also believe that as the economy continues to improve there will be a greater demand for multi-family properties and since the fewer of these properties have been built over the last 4-5 years, rents can be increased and property valuations can be driven higher.
Excerpts from the actual report:
The U.S. economic downshift into a more moderate rate of expansion has marginally impacted consumer spending. Weakness in the national recovery was evident in top-line May retail sales, as total receipts slipped for the first time in 11 months. The drop in May sales, however, was beset by rising energy prices and supply-chain disruptions that weighed down auto sales, factors that will prove temporary. In May, consumers demonstrated their ability to overcome rising gas receipts, as core retail sales excluding auto and gas, continued to rise. More importantly, core retail sales long-ago exceeded pre-recession highs. With fuel prices ebbing and providing Americans some expense relief, household purchases, which account for 70 percent of the economy, should improve and sustain economic expansion in the coming months.
Core retail sales rose 0.3 percent in May, up 4.4 percent above the previous peak in July 2008, but consumers remained hesitant to purchase big-ticket items.
The Conference Board index of leading indicators, which predicts economic activity, rose 0.8 percent in May, providing another reinforcing sign that the U.S. economy remains poised for continued, albeit slow, growth.
Impact on Commercial Real Estate
Minimal supply growth, coupled with strengthening economic conditions and rising retail sales will facilitate a downward drift in national retail vacancy through 2011.
Increases in core U.S. retail sales and an overall rise in global consumption will fuel tenant demand for supply-chain oriented industrial properties including warehouse and distribution facilities. As global trade continues to make headway, aided by the weak dollar, warehouse/distribution facilities in port-centric major markets such as Los Angeles and Houston, will steadily lease up through the remainder of the year. A rise in space requirements, coupled with near-record low supply growth will support a 50 basis point reduction in the national industrial vacancy in 2011 to 12.1 percent.
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