Routs and Rallies
Most stocks lost ground in May, and many investors voted with their dollars running for the exits. A record volume of dollars fled stock funds and went into bond funds. Investors' fleeing from the impending crisis of the week is common enough but a closer examination yields some interesting twists.
- First, markets move in both directions...all the time. Someone investing for financial freedom (retirement) will need to accept that there will be both "routs and rallies" in any market cycle.
- Second, the most controllable aspect impacting investor returns is...investor behavior. This means, if you are investing for 20-30 years, then avoid reacting to the nightly news or it will cause you to panic.
- Third, and for this example, most important - Do the math. If you sell out of a diversified stock fund in favor of a bond fund what have you done? 10-year U.S. Treasury notes yield around 1.50%. Inflation averaged 3% for the past century. Somehow, that math does not look too good.
The overarching goal of long-term investing is to maintain purchasing power - to outstrip inflation. Running from stocks to bonds likely provides the opposite - a way to lose wealth (purchasing power) slowly. Do markets move lower in anticipation of worrisome problems that are ahead? Sure they do. Do they stay down? So far, the answer is no, and unless you convince yourself that "it's different this time", there is no need to look further.
Markets often are emotional and unpredictable over the short run, and trying to out-guess the near term direction is foolish. The attached chart illustrates this point showing that, over the long term, stocks drastically outperform bonds. Investing with longer term objectives is much more dependable. Remember the financial planning questions: What do you want to accomplish? What do you want to fix? What do you want to avoid? In most cases, to answer/solve these questions, long-term exposure to the equity markets will be required.
We are pleased to visit with those you refer for a second opinion. Don't keep us a secret.
- James E. Wilson, CFP®

A Call To Action:
The June 29th topic of STAT will be,
"It Isn't Math - It's Mental". Please stay tuned. |
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 WealthRx® is J.E. Wilson's unique wealth management process, designed with successful physicians in mind. Learn more. Contact kstokes@jewilson.com. J.E. Wilson Advisors, LLC 2431 Devine Street Columbia, SC 29205 803.799.9203
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