| Super-committee lineup gives hope for deal
As markets continue to rise and dive in a post-downgrade free-for-all and lawmakers
face angst-ridden constituents on the town hall circuit, Capitol Hill is looking at the lineup of the new deficit reduction "super committee" as a critical chance to prove Congress can function during a crisis.
The roster is nearly set, and veteran political analysts say the picks made so far show a seriousness of purpose from Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate and House, giving a glimmer of hope that there could be a breakthrough deal this year. The committee includes a balance of party leaders, ideological warriors from both poles, wheeler-dealers and a middle-America geographical ballast, a combination that could lead to a detailed deficit reduction plan instead of the automatic cuts to defense and domestic accounts that go into effect if the committee and the full Congress fail to act.
"These are serious legislators. You go right down the line," Jack Howard, a lobbyist at Wexler & Walker who was a leadership aide in both the House and Senate, said of the Republican lineup of Sens. Jon Kyl, Rob Portman, and Pat Toomey and Reps. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), Dave Camp (Mich.) and Fred Upton (Mich.) - all named Wednesday. "These are serious people who have been through the wars in the past and are credible, well-respected people within their conferences.It's an All-Star cast. Murderer's Row."
While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has yet to make her three selections, Jim Manley, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, called the Senate Democratic group "serious, substantive picks."
There's also a sense developing on Capitol Hill that rather than a bare majority - say, six Republicans and a Democrat or six Democrats and a Republican - a deal will need approval from at least eight of the supercommittee members to give it any serious momentum, likely two from each party in each chamber, to break through the partisanship.
"With the pressure from the economy, the pressure from the markets reaction the last couple of days, I would think that this committee will have a lot of pressure on it not to fail, to at least come up with something," said Bill Hoagland, a former Senate Budget Committee director who now lobbies for the health insurance company Cigna.
That's not to say there's uniform optimism about the prospects for the committee: The dozen lawmakers, a majority of whom must sign off on any agreement, face a daunting set of obstacles.
First and foremost is the calendar. The panel is due to receive recommendations from legislative committees, several of which are chaired by "super committee" members, by Oct. 14. Within 40 days of that - by Nov. 23 - the committee, which is to be co-chaired by Hensarling and Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, must report its product to the full Congress. And, within a month after that, under expedited procedures, the House and Senate must vote on the plan.
While there is no limit on how little or how much deficit-reduction the committee can produce, the goal of $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion more than the $900 billion-plus that already has been cut is a steep target that proved elusive for the president and the top congressional leaders.
And there are no shortage of forces that would prefer to see automatic, across-the-board cuts take place if their own interests are on the committee's chopping block. In short, there will be a lot of lobbying going on between now and Christmas.
Already, some of the picks are taking heat. Murray, for example, has been the subject of criticism because she is the chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"Sen. Patty Murray may be a fine senator, but putting Senate Democrats' leading fundraiser in charge of a committee that will see a lobbying push like never before sends the wrong message to the American people," Nick Nyhart, president of the liberal group Public Campaign, said. "Instead of focusing solely on finding a balanced approach to deficit reduction, she will also be focused on raising money from the same interests hoping to influence the committee."
White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Wednesday that it would be "silly" for members of the super committee to observe a fund raising ban for the three months or so that it's in operation.
Liberal groups are also attacking conservative appointees.
Toomey (R-Pa.), a tea party favorite and a former president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, was targeted in a release from labor-affiliated Americans United for Change, "Sen. Toomey should focus on supporting programs in the budget that will actually create jobs instead of killing them," Americans United Executive Director Tom McMahon said. "Sen. Toomey should focus on a tax reform deal that eliminates loopholes and subsidies for wealthy special interests so that small businesses and middle class families don't have to pay more than their fair share."
However, Democratic and Republican veterans of congressional policy battles say the picks by Reid, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) demonstrate a desire to get something done.
Each has chosen a likely deal-maker, an ideological force and a swing vote.
For Senate Democrats, Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), whose legislative portfolio includes both taxes and entitlement programs, holds the promise of pushing negotiations toward handshakes rather than hand-to-hand combat. Murray, a member of the leadership who has carved out a reputation for protecting domestic spending as an appropriator, is trusted by the liberal wing of her caucus. Kerry, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and a Vietnam veteran, knows defense policy and can give cover to Democrats if they vote for cuts to the Pentagon's budget. He was a surprise pick but one that has a lot of incentive to reinvent himself as a legislator six years after he lost a presidential race.
McConnell tapped two freshmen, Portman and Toomey, to negotiate - a nod both to the influence of a younger generation and the trust that the GOP establishment and the conservative base have in each man, respectively.
As a former director of the White House budget office and a veteran of the House Ways and Means Committee, Portman has few if any peers in Congress when it comes to command of policy. He's roundly respected - he's one of the few Senate Republicans who have relationships with members of the Congressional Black Caucus in the House - and will be looked at as a deal-maker.
Toomey, who voted against the debt deal that established the supercommittee, is revered by fiscal conservatives. If he signs off on something, it will give cover to conservative colleagues to follow suit. Kyl, the Republican whip, is an able legislator who brings an understanding of tax and defense policy to the table. He's also retiring after this term, which means he doesn't have to worry about his standing for future leadership elections or the next race in Arizona.
Like his Senate counterpart Reid, Boehner picked a member of his own leadership team, conservative stalwart Hensarling, to co-chair the committee. The Reagan-citing Texan is a hard-liner, particularly on spending cuts and keeping taxes low, but is far more conducive to constructive policy-making than some members of the House Republican Conference. Upton, the chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, had a good relationship with then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and is perceived as the House Republican most likely to cut a cross-aisle deal. Camp, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee and a close Boehner ally, could play the role of swing voter.
All in all, the supercommittee members face a tall order, and several sources said they could envision a deal coming together - or falling apart - with Toomey, Hensarling, Murray and any or all three of Pelosi's unnamed picks choosing not to sign it.
But there was also a sense developing Wednesday that this serious set of legislators won't accept failure.
"This is an opportunity for them to regroup and improve their standing," Hoagland said. "... I think there's going to be a lot of pressure on them to move and improve their image in whatever way they can."
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