Congressional Climate

If the first 100 days of the country's latest experiment in divided government is any indication, the next two years will be a brutal political slog with short pit stops for legislative progress only on the most basic functions of government.

President Barack Obama had signed just eight bills sent to him by the 112th Congress into law by Friday. Besides the 2011 spending measure and six short-term extensions of existing laws, only a courthouse naming measure has made it through both the GOP-controlled House and Democratic-run Senate.

On the big spending bill, it took marathon negotiations and a last-minute deal between Obama, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to keep the government from shutting down. Even then, the agreement was sealed so late that the White House had to issue guidance to allow operations to continue past midnight - after starting to print furlough notices for hundreds of thousands of federal employees - because Congress couldn't complete action until after the official zero hour.

Yet for all the talk of tea party intemperance - and even though Republicans have succeeded in forcing Democrats to fight on GOP turf on the long-term spending bill and a pending increase of the limit on the national debt - neither party holds a firm upper hand.

"It's like the early rounds of a heavyweight fight, where they circle each other and throw a few punches," said former Rep. Martin Frost, a moderate Texas Democrat. "You don't expect a knockout in the first round."

After three-plus months of a new governing paradigm, there's still hope in some corners that the political stalemate - the inability of either side to make progress on its own partisan goals - will lead to major progress on national priorities such as bringing annual and long-term budgets closer to balance.

The slow pace is not for lack of effort, at least not on the House side of the Capitol. Boehner and his anxious new Republican majority are steadily churning out conservative favorites, including a bill that would eliminate funding for the Democratic health care law enacted last year and a budget resolution that would slash taxes, Medicare and Medicaid.

But those measures are dead on arrival in a Democratic Senate that isn't willing to act on its own agenda, much less the House's. Reid is doing his best to avoid tough votes because 23 Democratic-held Senate seats are on the line next November. Months of floor time have been taken up by ho-hum reauthorizations of aviation and small business laws.

And Boehner has been forced to work hard to find his way since being sworn as speaker on Jan. 5. Not only does he face a challenge controlling his 87-member, tea-party inspired freshman class, but conservative lawmakers such as Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Steve King (R-Iowa) have also been vocally critical of the 2011 budget deal the Ohio Republican hammered out with Obama and Reid, causing Boehner headaches with the GOP base. Bachmann is considering a White House run in 2012, while Pence may run statewide in Indiana.

During a members-only, closed-door Republican Conference meeting on Friday, several lawmakers - including Reps. Virginia Foxx (N.C.) and Geoff Davis (Ky.) - "called out" Bachmann for taking a veiled shot at Boehner by criticizing the budget deal he helped craft. Freshman GOP Rep. Jon Runyan (N.J.), a former lineman for the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles, compared "some" in his conference to star wide receiver Terrell Owens, a brilliant but controversial player who was slammed for dividing Runyan's old team with divisive public comments.

Bachmann defended herself from the criticism, and Republicans later came out of the session with overwhelming support for a 2012 budget proposal from Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that cut $5.8 trillion in government spending over the next decade. No Democrats backed the measure, while four House Republicans voted against it. That was a dramatic improvement from Thursday's vote on the 2011 budget package, when 59 Republicans defected, leading to questions about Boehner's strength within the GOP Conference.

"Mr. Boehner has done a good job of reorganizing the House, establishing his leadership, organizing his committees with his committee leadership," said Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.). "I give him really high marks for finalizing the fiscal year 2011 appropriations, not only for the fact the we are getting it done ... but then the other consideration is that Mr. Boehner has never been an appropriator, he's never been on the Budget Committee, yet still he was able to manage those appropriation and budget issues, I think, very successfully."

"I think he did an admirable job with regards to the battles that he had recently," added Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.), who along with members of the Republican Study Committee pushed a budget proposal even more hard-line than the Ryan plan.

"Now he's going to have to be focused on the next one," Garrett noted, referring to the tough fight ahead over boosting the nation's $14.3 trillion debt limit, a vote that will come later this spring.

Despite Friday's Republican unity, Boehner and other top GOP leaders, including Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin Mccarthy (Calif.), have "yet to jell," said one Republican lawmaker, meaning Boehner has had to tread carefully to avoid being outflanked by either one of them, especially Cantor.

"Look, they are all trying to figure out how this works, who does what exactly and how it gets done," said the Republican lawmaker, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "He doesn't trust Cantor, so he has to move slowly."

Boehner ducked a question this week on the hundred-day mark, sarcastically telling reporters: "Thanks for reminding me."

So far, House Democrats have retained a reservoir of personal good-will for Boehner, despite their intense opposition to his policy decisions. "Great guy. There's no animus," said Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the assistant minority leader and an occasional golfing partner. "I don't feel about him like a I felt about [former Speaker Newt] Gingrich."

However, across the Capitol, Senate Democrats have spent much more energy ripping House Republicans than legislating.

"The Republicans have made a major mistake in turning a debate over the budget into a debate over whether to keep or eliminate Medicare," New York Sen. Charles Schumer, the top Senate Democratic message man, said after House Republicans adopted the Ryan budget on Friday. "The House Republicans have let tea party zeal get the better of them, and this vote will reverberate for a long time."

There's no indication that Senate Democrats have plans to write a budget this year, despite the fact that House Democrats were hammered in last year's election for failing to produce one for the first time since the 1974 Budget Act became law.

An aide to Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said that he did not know when the panel might consider a budget resolution.

"The last two years were offense. These two years are defense," said a senior Democratic aide on Capitol Hill. "Defense that will result in presidential reelection, hopefully picking up some House seats and holding steady in the Senate."

To the extent Senate Democrats plan to be on offense, it's in the political arena.

"You get to have more fun now because Republicans have to be constructive. Bridge building is more difficult than bridge breaking," the aide said. "You pick your spots, you launch grenades."

Right now, there's a political clusterbomb on the horizon. The government is about to hit a $14.3 trillion cap on the debt, and Congress and the president must agree to prevent a catastrophic default on national obligations.

Republican conservatives made clear early in the process that they wouldn't compromise unless Democrats are willing to institute spending caps or cuts. Some congressional Democrats, including House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), have moved in that direction, and Hoyer was able to deliver 80 critical votes for Boehner on the 2011 budget deal during Thursday's floor vote.

And Obama, who had said repeatedly that he wanted a "clean" debt-ceiling vote, now is willing to attach deficit-control legislation to the measure.

"I think [Boehner's] absolutely right that it's not going to happen without some spending cuts," Obama told the Associated Press on Friday.

In a speech earlier this week, Obama said he wants to convene a 16-member congressional task force to negotiate a deficit-reduction package. Before Friday, he had not linked it to the debt-ceiling vote. But a political reality sure to energize conservatives and frustrate liberals has taken hold; the president simply can't afford to let the nation plunge into default on his watch, and that fact is going to cost him.

While some believe the new task force is destined for deadlock - particularly because of its size - others say all ends of the political spectrum must be represented to reach a debt deal that can be sold to all sides in Congress.

"You really need to have everyone in the room to get something done," Frost said. "You have to have strong partisans around the table."