January 2009 Newsletter: Monty Hall Problem, Amygdala Hijack, New BUZZ

Earlier this month we invited some readers to take part in an experiment based on the 1960s popular US television quiz show "Let's Make a Deal". In that show, the program's host, Monty Hall, would present the contestant with three doors. Behind one door was a substantial prize; behind the others there was nothing.

If you haven't yet participated in the short experiment, feel free to click here to do so before reading any further.

In our experiment, we asked you to imagine playing a seven door version of the game. You get to initially choose three doors. After making your choice, Monty (who knows where the prize is) opens three of the remaining doors to show you that the prize was not behind any of them. He then says, "Would you like to stick with the three doors you originally picked, or would you prefer to swap them for the one other door I have not opened?" We then asked you two questions:

Question 1: Should you stick with your original three doors or make the swap Monty is offering, etc?

Question 2: How confident are you with your answer to question 1?

At the time we sent this newsletter out, the majority of you, 79%, said you would keep your original three doors and 13% said it didn't matter if you switched or not - a total of 92%.

In addition, 81% of those same people responded that they felt "Confident. It would be difficult to talk me into changing my answer" or "Extremely confident. I don't believe I could be talked into changing my answer."

As you may have gathered, those among the 92% were completely incorrect. The correct answer is to switch doors, even though it doesn't make intuitive sense for most people. To understand why, click on the link at the end of this article.

What we find interesting about this experiment is not necessarily the confidence people had in their initial answers but the confidence they had in judging that it would be difficult to be talked into changing that answer - before being presented with any alternative perspectives!

Our favorite open response comment was from the participant who wrote "I cannot think of an argument that would convince me to change" and indicated they were extremely confident.

Of course a person who is extremely confident can't think of an argument that would convince them to change their position or they wouldn't be that confident! The real issue is whether, in the real world, that level of confidence stops people from actively searching for potential perspectives that, if found and reflected upon, might convince one to change their position.

We think the experiment illustrates something interesting happening in many organizations. Leaders at all levels sometimes make decisions or hold assumptions without weighing them against alternative viewpoints because they have already reached a conclusion about the validity of those alternative viewpoints - without knowing anything about them.

Under that paradigm, leaders often cease to actively look for perspectives that are contrary to those they are most confident in - creating huge potential for ongoing blind spots.

A Jester's work is critical because it is the most confidently held viewpoints, conclusions or paradigms (potentially harboring unilluminated blind spots) that most easily can become the unexamined status quo.

If you are one of the 91% shaking your head wondering how you could have possibly been wrong (and maybe still thinking that we are wrong), click here for an explanation of why it is in your interest to trade your three doors for the one door. The article addresses a more simple 3 door problem but the insight will easily transfer to our seven door version.

By the way, if you thought we were crazy before you read the explanation, you are not alone. When a version of this problem and the solution appeared in Parade, approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with Ph.D.s, wrote to the magazine claiming the published solution was wrong.

We would love to hear your comments about this. Click here to respond (but wait a couple minutes if you are currently having an amygdala hijack - see below).