Acting Secretary Mike Dayton speaks to KCRA 3 reporter Mike TeSelle about the recent demonstration of USGS's flood simulation ARkStorm.

Perhaps the "Other" moniker isn't entirely accurate, depends on who you ask. In California the "Big One" is invariably an earthquake in residents' minds. Around the country, California is known unofficially as the quake state. The state sits on about 250 fault lines, it's the most populous state and therefore an earthquake would affect the greatest number of people.

However, scientists recently gathered in Sacramento to discuss the plausibility of an even greater disaster than a catastrophic earthquake.

The ARkStorm simulation, unveiled by United States Geological Survey scientists in January, showed how a 200-year storm could cripple California's current preventative systems, economy and landscape. According to the USGS, an epic storm could cause more than $700 billion in damage, about three times that of a major shift on the San Andreas Fault.

USGS's simulation was rather jarring after much of Southern California suffered through the recent winter storms in late December last year. The simulation ran a scenario that showed the major storms from 1969 and 1986 occurring in back-to-back systems. In the scenario, 9 million homes flooded, approximately one-fourth of all homes in California.

USGS Director Marcia McNutt told attendees the simulation is "hypothetical but very plausible" considering California's rainfall is trending upward.

ARkStorm also included the first-ever collection of landslide susceptibility maps for California. Vulnerable areas are identified along coastal areas. Nancy Ward, Regional Administrator for FEMA Region IX, said a storm with such widespread consequences and debilitating results, like a month-long Hurricane Katrina, would involve "decades of recovery."

By comparison, the December 2010 storms were described, by Mark Jackson of the National Weather Service, as 20 Mississippi Rivers in the atmosphere. A storm such as ARkStorm demonstrates would easily exceed 50 Mississippi Rivers.

To see a slideshow from the ARkStorm presentation, visit Cal EMA's Flickr here.

For the entire ARkStorm report, visit the USGS website at here.  

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FEMA Region IX's headquarters is just a few miles from the Hayward Fault. Fault mapping data was provided by the United States Geological Survey via Google Earth.

 "The Big One" is a constant topic of discussion in the emergency manager field. It's not a matter of if, but when it will happen. San Francisco is considered at the top of the list for possible areas for the epicenter of the next great California earthquake. In order to keep response times quick and recovery times minimal; the Federal Emergency Management Agency is looking for new real estate.  

Our partners at the Federal Emergency Management Agency are currently looking for a new base of operations in the Sacramento area. The move would bring about 150 jobs to the state capital.   

FEMA's Region IX headquarters is currently based in downtown Oakland, less than five miles from the Hayward Fault which runs along the Douglas MacArthur Freeway on Interstate 580. The move is expected to be underway by the first half of 2012.   

Region IX oversees more than 47.6 million U.S. residents within all of California, Nevada, Arizona, Hawaii, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands (north of Guam), the Marshall Islands and Micronesia (both are approximately 2,300 miles west of Hawaii). Californians are more than 77 percent of those stakeholders.   

The U.S. Department of General Services is currently considering locations around the Sacramento area. The search has to meet many specific guidelines FEMA has submitted. Much like the Sacramento headquarters for Cal EMA, the building or buildings must meet size, security and functionality requirements.

Well before dawn on Jan. 17, 1994, the earth was shoved violently upward in the suburban community of Northridge, north of Los Angeles inside the San Fernando Valley. Fires followed the shaking as gas lines ruptured and flammable fuel storage units cracked. The 6.7 magnitude Northridge earthquake took 57 victims, inured almost 12,000 people and forced more than 680,000 people to apply for financial assistance in the following days.

This year marks the 17^th anniversary
of the quake. The disaster caused more than $40 billion in property and economic losses. Northridge's hangover had many side effects outside of physical and emotional damage; it showed there was a previously unknown and dangerous fault, the Pico thrust fault, in California and more steps could be taken to keep more people safe, such as retrofitting buildings in earthquake sensitive areas.

In conjunction with the anniversary of the Northridge earthquake Acting Secretary of Cal EMA Mike Dayton said:

Even though nearly two decades have elapsed since the Northridge earthquake struck the greater Los Angeles area, January 17, 1994, will remain etched in the memories of many Californians for many more years, particularly the memories of those who lost friends or loved ones that day. Our thoughts and prayers are with them today.

Within hours after the earthquake, the first responders and emergency managers who constitute California's emergency response system demonstrated why many believe we have the best emergency management and response system in the world by successfully rescuing 29 people from collapsed buildings and vehicles and completing essential fire suppression operations.

Since 1994, California has continued to enhance its emergency response capabilities through implementation of the state's Standardized Emergency Management System and the National Incident Management System, as well as expansion of the California Integrated Seismic Network and participation in the state's Golden Guardian exercises.

We can't prevent the "Big One" or even the "moderate" earthquakes from occurring, but we can reduce their impacts. I encourage Californians to learn about the risk they face by visiting Cal EMA's "My Hazards" website at www.myhazards.calema.ca.gov. I also urge those who haven't already done so to develop a family emergency plan that includes an out-of-town contact and place to re-unite if you are separated; assemble an emergency supply kit that includes at least a three-day supply of food and water for each person, a first aid kit, battery-operated radios and flashlights.

Jan. 17 is also an infamous date in Japan's long natural disaster history. At 5:45 a.m. on that date in 1995 a 6.8 magnitude earthquake shook near Kobe-the sixth largest city in Japan. More than 6,400 people lost their lives.

State Search and Rescue Coordinator Matt Scharper and Deputy Chief Michael Griffin, certified range masters, work through a shooting exercise in January.

When civil unrest gathered strength in the East Bay city of Oakland in early July and November 2010, regarding the Johannes Mehserle trial, a heavy phalanx of law enforcement held order. A mix of peaceful protesters, anarchists, vandals and spectators crowded the streets and there was only a rare confrontation with police. In July, the groundwork for the reaction to the verdict of Mehserle's trial started a week earlier within the Oakland Police Department. The OPD tapped into the State Mutual Aid program to establish a larger network of resources that could be made available during the civil unrest.  

Additional law enforcement resources came from as far as Sacramento and included the National Guard. Many of these resources stayed at the ready in various locations in Alameda County. More than 500 officers moved into the East Bay and that coordination was in large part due to the wardens of the State Mutual Aid Program, California Emergency Management Agency's Law Enforcement Division. 

Since its origin in 1961, the Law Enforcement Division has been resolute in its responsibilities to state and local law enforcement agencies while performing a valuable role in Cal EMA's ongoing mission to prepare for, deter, respond to, and recover from natural and technological disasters.

It's a well worn phrase, but California's mutual aid system is the backbone of our response to the myriad of incidents we face. Law enforcement agencies throughout the state have entrusted the Law Enforcement Division with the custodial care of the mutual aid system and its accompanying plan and training.

Foremost among the Division's core programs is the law enforcement mutual aid program. From planned events like the political national conventions to spontaneous unusual events like major civil unrest, the Law Enforcement Division assists law enforcement agencies in emergency planning and providing mutual aid coordination. Other key programs include the search and rescue program, coroners' mutual aid and mass fatality management planning program, facility security program, and rail/transit security program.

With the landmark development of California's master mutual aid agreement, signed on Nov. 15, 1950, came a desire by the law enforcement agencies in the state to create a law enforcement division within Cal EMA's predecessor, the California State Disaster Council and Office of Civil Defense. The Korean War was escalating in intensity and the federal government initiated a civil defense program. The California Disaster Act was amended to give the state director of emergency operations all of the powers of the governor during a state of emergency. The Master Mutual Aid Agreement created a formal structure where jurisdictions volunteered to assist neighboring jurisdictions by exchanging resources during a disaster.

In 1961, the State Sheriff's Association and the California Chiefs of Police petitioned the Governor and the legislature to establish a law enforcement division to develop a formal law enforcement mutual aid plan and to assist in the coordination of critical law enforcement personnel and resources in time of peril and unusual events.

"Today, almost 50 years later, the law enforcement division remains committed to delivering professional and effective mutual aid planning, training, and resource coordination," Assistant Chief Bob Gerber said of the Law Enforcement Division.

Deputy Chief Greg Smith (front) takes aim while at a weapons proficiency workshop with Matt Scharper (background).

In its formal creation, the law enforcement division was given a unique but essential mandate. The establishment and maintenance of the law enforcement mutual aid plan and accompanying programs has been the fundamental mission of the division. What sets the law enforcement division apart from other law enforcement agencies is the absence of any regulatory or enforcement authority. This was not an oversight in the creation of the division, but rather a strategic decision by the state officials to establish a 'neutrality' of function and a more focused role of supporting all law enforcement agencies in their emergency planning and response activities. The fact that a new law enforcement division was created amongst already existing state law enforcement organizations speaks volumes to the importance of the law enforcement mutual aid system.

Over the many years of its existence the law enforcement division has maintained its fundamental care and maintenance of the mutual aid plan and programs. The function of providing emergency planning, training, and plan maintenance has not changed. However, some program components have become obsolete while several have been added; many in the last five years.

In recent years, the law enforcement division, while enhancing its core programs, has added several key programs. With the increased threat of terrorism in the United States came the need to prepare several facets of our critical infrastructure. Consequently, the state Legislature established a program within the division to assist California's rail and mass transit in their terrorism prevention and response planning efforts. An additional division program responsibility is managing the facility access and physical security program. All Cal EMA personnel are provided identification badges with proper controlled access to the headquarters facility. Oversight of the contract security guards is also an element of this division security program.

The law enforcement division takes its role as custodian of the law enforcement mutual aid program seriously. It continues to be flexible to meet the emerging demands while remaining steadfast in its mission to strengthen the law enforcement mutual aid program.