Much like the micro-businesses that had few problems with the credit crunch (since no one ever extended them credit), so, too, emerging countries with low debts and deficits entered into this credit crisis much stronger. Coming out, they continue to steadily close the wealth gap. Meanwhile, we're continuing to see advanced economies struggle with mediocre growth accompanied by high unemployment.

Japan, one of the beleaguered advanced economies, is a country with many sides to its story. Japan's no longer a Pacific tiger, but because of its location, the growth of emerging Asia rubs off on it. The recent calamity of earthquake and tsunami will hurt economic growth in large part from the curtailment of manufacturing caused by the lack of electricity and transportation. Yet, the reconstructing of such an enormous amount of infrastructure will be a stimulus. Which way this tips their economy remains to be seen.

One of the biggest fallouts of the tsunami is the damage to Japan's nuclear power plants. However, the biggest fallout is not from physical damage, but rather the damage to the world's view of that method of producing electricity.  Many people are calling for the permanent shutdown of all nuclear power plants. While the odds of this happening are small, if plants are shut down for many months until their licenses are reviewed, it will be difficult for some countries to completely replace the power generation lost. The rest will be able to bring up other facilities, but as they will necessarily be coal or gas-powered, this will put upward pressure on energy prices. In turn, this will put downward pressure on their economies.

But while the tragedy in Japan was certainly monumental, it is the development in the Middle East that could spiral out of control. I'm sure you understand that if the disruption in the oil supply from Libya is causing such a spike in prices, a disruption in Saudi Arabia would be extreme. As energy robs worldwide consumers of more and more of their income, less discretionary money remains, and economies suffer again.

While all this goes on, it is sometimes hard to remember that we are starting the third year of a bull market. In the beginning, it seemed to some that it was more of a dead cat bounce. When it continued, many were convinced it was a temporary rise before we headed into the second half of a double dip recession. And now some say that this bull market is long in the tooth and overdue for a correction.

They may be right. I'm doing my normal thing of taking some profits while the market is up and reinvesting in places that haven't enjoyed such a large upswing. Does that mean that I see a drop coming? I'm solidly in the "maybe" camp on that one-there's about a 50% chance of a two-year-old bull market to keep going up the third year. Compared to other recoveries, this market has not gone up too fast or too far. And institutional portfolios as a whole are still underweighted in stocks.

Yes, I'm a solid maybe.