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 Personal Money Planning'se-Newsletter for May 8, 2010 (to look at past issues, click here) |
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2010 Census:
By The Numbers
US Estimated population in 2009:
307,006,550
Percentage of households that returned their census form in March and April 2010:
72%
Total land area of US, in square miles (in 2000):
3,537,438
Approximate number of total miles census takers will travel to obtain responses during door-to-door follow-up:
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Disclosure |
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This newsletter is produced by Gary Silverman, dba Personal Money Planning, a registered investment advisor located in Wichita Falls, Texas.
Information in this newsletter is believed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regards to the subject matter covered. However, the accuracy, timeliness, or applicability of the information is not guaranteed and is provided with the understanding that we are not rendering legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice or services.
This publication should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Personal Money Planning's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. Nor should links provided to other sites be construed as the recommendation of the services or products mentioned on those sites. If such services are required, the help of a competent professional should be sought.
Remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to (directly or indirectly) on this Website will be profitable or equal to indicated performance levels. Different types of investment involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for your investment portfolio.
Historical performance results for investment indexes and categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.
A copy of Personal Money Planning's current written disclosure statement discussing Personal Money Planning's business operations, services, and fees (known as an ADV Part II) is available from Personal Money Planning upon written request (and can be downloaded from our web site).
Personal Money Planning does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Personal Money Planning's web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.
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Sell In May
With the recent market drops, the old saying on Wall Street: "Sell in May and go away" seems to be proving itself. The idea is to get out of the stock market at the start of summer and don't get back in until the fall. That way you miss the summer doldrums and then can get back in before the anticipated year-end rallies begin. At least that's the conventional wisdom.
In my business, it is usually a good idea to test out "wisdom" before applying it. From 1990 through 2008, during the 6-month period that begins on May 1st the S&P 500 was 19.7%. No, that's not 19.7% on average per year. That was the return of every one of those 19 years added together. Hmmm...maybe that old adage has some merit. But how to use it?
The problem is that, last year, during the single 6-month period from May 1 through October 31, the S&P 500 grew 20%. That's right, last year the growth was more than the previous 19 years combined. That might not be enough to dismiss our "sell in May" friend, but it should give you pause. Just because on average the 6-month period that starts May 1 is pretty weak, that doesn't mean that every year you'd see weak returns. Many times during that 19 year period the markets did well...exceedingly well. And last year highlights one of the many exceptions to the rule.
I'm writing this on Thursday night, the day the markets tried to go down 10%. As I'm writing, no one seems to know (or at least admit) what the problem was. By now you probably know better than me. But it seems that there was a bit of a computer insanity going on. While it may have been triggered by a human error, the speed of the computer allowed it to compound virtually uncontrolled until massive losses struck stocks.
These losses were temporary in nature. While the extremes are usually less, short-term shocks to the system are actually quite common. That's what causes all the bounces up and down in the market. However, usually the extremes are caused by humans letting their emotions get the better of them, not some computer that can't seem to stop selling.
Of course, I've been predicting a zig-zag market to be the norm for the next many years. That's why I've been taking some gains out of our stock positions and going back into several types of market-neutral investments. Am I worried? I'm always concerned when the market goes up quickly. It makes me wonder what might be around the corner. However, these days those problems are in plain sight and are making decisions easier...so, instead of worrying, I can spend my time preparing.
So, if we manage your money, and you're wondering what we're doing to prepare for the future, just ask me.
Gary Silverman, CFP |
| seminar
announcement |
Mark Your Calendars |
Getting Your Financial House Organized
Gary will hold a free seminar outlining the steps you can take to build a solid foundation for your financial life.
Join us at the new Courtyard by Marriott Wichita Falls off of Lawrence Road (across from Walmart and behind Jack-in-the-Box) on Tuesday, May 11, from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m.
Please RSVP to (940) 692-6885 or email Gary ( Gary@PersonalMoneyPlanning.com). This will help us ensure we have enough refreshments and handouts for everyone. |
| gary's Sunday newspaper column | Sunday Newspaper Articles You May Have Missed |
From the Wichita Falls Times Record News
Investing Part 17 ~ A Last Word
Last article in the Investing series--it's not just about money.
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| gary's other newspaper column | Biz-to-Biz Article You May Have Missed |
From the recent issue of the Wichita Falls Times Record News Biz-to-Biz
Businesses Connecting
Gary takes a look at a how-to book for the popular social media site, LinkedIn.
http://personalmoneyplanning.com/ourviews.aspx?LinkId=98580&spid=86755
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| articles links from | The Economist | |
This article predicts some changes coming; Americans may move out of the suburbs, the cities may see an increase in jobs, America may see an increased demand for their exports, and no longer will consumption grow faster than income. A potentially rosy future for the country that triggered the economic meltdown.
Europe's Worrying Gerontocracy
This is a glimpse into the politics of the future. By 2050, more than a third of potential European Union voters will be over the age of 65. There are many economists and political strategists concerned this will create an older electorate more concerned with taxpayer money being used for healthcare and pensions against the wishes of the younger citizens, who may put more emphasis on education and the like.
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| Tax Articles | Tax Information From The IRS |
Five Facts You Need to Know about Suspicious E-mails
There are many e-mail scams circulating that fraudulently use the Internal Revenue Service name or logo as a lure. The goal of the scam - known as phishing - is to trick you into revealing personal and financial information. The scammers can then use your personal information - such as your Social Security number, bank account or credit card numbers - to commit identity theft and steal your money.
Here are five things the IRS wants you to know about phishing scams.
1. The IRS does not send unsolicited e-mails about a person's tax account or ask for detailed personal and financial information via e-mail.
2. The IRS never asks taxpayers for their PIN numbers, passwords or similar secret access information for their credit card, bank or other financial accounts.
3. If you receive an e-mail from someone claiming to be the IRS or directing you to an IRS site,
* Do not reply to the message.
* Do not open any attachments. Attachments may contain malicious code that will infect your computer.
* Do not click on any links. If you clicked on links in a suspicious e-mail or phishing Web site and entered confidential information, visit IRS.gov and enter the search term 'identity theft' for more information and resources to help.
4. You can help shut down these schemes and prevent others from being victimized. If you receive a suspicious e-mail that claims to come from the IRS, you can forward that e-mail to a special IRS mailbox, phishing@irs.gov. You can forward the message as received or provide the Internet header of the e-mail. The Internet header has additional information to help us locate the sender.
5. Remember, the official IRS Web site is http://www.irs.gov/. Do not be confused or misled by sites claiming to be the IRS but end in .com, .net, .org or other designations instead of .gov.
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| from gary's facebook page |
Stuff you may have missed on Facebook |
 Gary has a Facebook page where he regularly sends out links and notes during the week. This section repeats those that are still pertinent to our readers. Even if you are one of his Facebook "friends" you could have missed one or more of these, so you may want to peruse through them, just to make sure.
If you're not one of Gary's Facebook buddies, you can become one by clicking here:
You should also be aware of Personal Money Planning's Facebook page. Up to now, Gary's Facebook postings have all come from his personal page. Beginning in the next month or two, the "Gary-ish" stuff (curling, odd facts, etc.) will stay on the GaryWSilverman page, and all of the money-oriented postings will come from the Personal Money Planning company page.
To find our company page, click here:
Candid Talk about the Economy Fareed Zakaria talks with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner about everyything from Goldman Sachs to economic and political brawls around the world. If you want to have more than sound bites about what's happening with U.S. and international finance, it is worth an hour of your time.
Your choice: Save better or retire later
Four in five Americans will fall short of their retirement needs.
Is your company ready for its own volcano?The recent Iceland volcano reinforced the need to be prepared for the unexpected. Is your company ready? End of an Era
On April 11, Texas Stadium was demolished. Gary was able to see it live. Here's one of the videos posted by someone in the crowd.
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parting thoughts
The Terrorist Legacy
Guest article by Bob Veres
Conventional wisdom says that the terrorists were beaten back after 9/11 and ultimately lost their bid to disrupt or terrorize the United States. But a recent column in The Economist magazine suggests that the terrorists may have won more than we realize. In addition to the hassle of removing your shoes, coat, gloves, hat, jacket, wallet, keys and belt at the security line at the airport, you also may be losing prosperity.
How? The magazine notes that in 2001, before the attack, 28% of all students who studied abroad did so at American universities. By 2008, that figure had shrunk to 21%. Foreigners and immigrants make up more than half of the scientific researchers in the U.S., and typically 60% of the post-doctoral students doing top-level research are foreign-born. But lately, the ordeal of getting a visa is prompting many of those brainiacs to take their ideas elsewhere. The article also says that organizers of international scientific conferences are increasingly reluctant to hold them in America, because it takes so long for the immigration service to approve short-term visas. An unrelated survey commissioned by the global travel industry found that the entry process into the U.S. was rated the most rude, unpleasant and intrusive.
The article offers one more thing to think about. A study by researchers at UCLA modeled the economic impact if immigration laws were made more welcoming. This is not likely, it said, because immigration officials live in fear of admitting the next Mohammad Atta, but there is no penalty for excluding the next Einstein. The researchers assumed that Congress would create an immigration policy that would make it possible for some 12 million illegal immigrants already in the country to earn legal status and eventually citizenship--and pay taxes. And, second, they assumed the rigid cap on the number of visas issued to foreign citizens would be replaced by one that takes into account what the American labor market needs.
These two changes, the study estimated, would raise America's gross domestic product by $1.5 trillion over ten years--and that, the article suggests, ought to be counted as the price exacted by the terrorists. It says that the current immigration system, a result of policy changes in the wake of 9/11, is a recipe for stagnation, and poses a serious threat to America's status as the top nation of the world--which may have been the goal of the terrorists all along.
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That's all, for now.
Gary
Gary Silverman, CFP
Personal Money Planning
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©2008 Personal Money Planning. All rights are reserved by Personal Money Planning and content may not be reproduced, disseminated, or transferred in any form or by any means, except with the prior written permission of Personal Money Planning unless specifically noted. (Permission is not difficult to obtain.) The one exception is for downloading and printing information this newsletter for general education by the original recipient. |
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