If the market analysis presented at a recent LED meeting sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) is correct, your inventory of lamps and fixtures is going to undergo a dramatic change in the coming years.
In the Graph Above - The "WW" stands for World Wide
Red Line - Bullish (Optimistic)
Blue Line - Base
Grey Line - Bear (Conservative)
The analysis indicates that by the end of 2020, LEDs will fill at least 54.8% of lighting sockets in the world. The most optimistic of his assessments is that LEDs will be generating illumination in more than 82% of those sockets.
The base forecast takes LEDs from an almost insignificant share of WW sockets in 2012 to roughly 68% over roughly 3,000 days.
No need for subsidie
Driving the forecast - LEDs do not require subsidies unlike other energy-savings technologies, they are ready now.
In fact, the 55% to 82% range given in the analysis is not all that optimistic, relative to what's being said by manufacturers. General Electric (GE) is projecting 70%, and Philips has said it sees 70% to 80% by 2020.
For residential users converting to LED's will be a no-brainer. On the commercial side, companies like Jones Lang Lasalle, one of the largest property management companies world-wide, talk a lot about the future use of LED's in their properties.
To summarize the optimistic perspective that LEDs will soon be the default light bulb purchased by homeowners and apartment dwellers. Commercial purchasers will join residential users out of a practical desire to accomplish something sustainable and save energy-with LEDs being a quicker, more-practical way to do this compared to other more expensive and extensive energy saving methods such as; solar or wind projects.
Falling prices driven by BOM
The graph below details the Bill of Materials for an LED lamp sold as a replacement for a 60W incandescent.
At an estimated retail price of $40 per LED bulb, one-third comprises "Channel Margin," in the cost estimation. Not only will production costs fall over time but, slowly time will eat away at the huge Channel Margin. Resulting in a reduction in "Relative Manufacturing Cost" for LEDs from "1.0" in 2010 to roughly "0.1" in 2020. This along with competition has already started to lower the cost of LED lamps and fixtures.