Transitioning to Lighting Applications
The latest Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report, show that market indicators continue to predict a rise in LED usage across applications, with lighting leading the way in LED applications with a predicted increase of 20% over 2010. The total package revenue for backlight and lighting applications was $7.2 billion in 2010 and is forecast to reach $12.7 billion in 2014. A heightened demand for LED lighting applications is the main driver of this dramatic increase.
Fortunately, suppliers have taken note of these trends and have planned for increased capacity in the future. In 2011, predictions for global LED capacity will reach 180 billion units, and by 2013 will reach 227 billion.
While overall LED demand continues to rise, the demand has tapered off in LED backlights and begin to trend more in the direction of LED lighting, due to high inventories and low sales for LED-backlit LCD TVs in Q4'10, Q1'11and early Q2'11, LED backlight demand dropped slightly; we expect it to pick up again and reach a maximum level in Q3'11 due to seasonal demand. Currently, LED backlights are used in all small/medium LCDs, and LED backlight penetration in mobile PCs is nearly 100%. Penetration of LED backlights in LCD monitors and LCD TVs continues to grow, while the number of LED packages per set is decreasing.
Increasing Usage of LED Lighting
In terms of LED penetration in lighting applications, the total LED penetration in lighting was 1.4% in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.3% in 2014. There is high penetration in spot lights due to halogen replacements, and government policies are expected to accelerate LED penetration in street lights after 2011. Total LED lighting demand was 3.2 billion in Q2'11, and predictions are that demand will quickly increase to 3.4 billion in Q3'11.
Taiwan to Lead LED Supply After 2011
Korea was the top LED supply country in 2010. Taiwan will take over as the top LED supply country after 2011. A surplus will intensify competition and lead to dramatic price drops in 2011, causing higher LED adoption rates in lighting.
Lower trending cost for LED-Incandescent Replacements will help drive LED Lighting Increases
The LED industry is touting an LED light bulb equivalent to a 60-watt incandescent that they say will be available in 2012. The bulb will consume less than 10 watts of energy and that its brightness, as measured in lumens, will be equivalent to that of a 60-watt incandescent.
The omnidirectional LED bulb, in the traditional A19 shape of household incandescent light bulbs, will be available in Europe at the end of the year and worldwide, including in the U.S., early in 2012. Prices for LED bulbs meant to replace incandescents have been trending downward with improved technology and increasing competition in the LED lighting market. Advantages of LED bulbs include lower energy use and longer life. The omnidirectional aspect of the bulb is noteworthy. LEDs traditionally have been better-suited as spotlights and for other directional lighting uses. Companies such as General Electric, Cree, Lighting Science Group and Dixon Technologies are all working on omnidirectional LED bulbs. Contact Premier Lighting for more information and current pricing on LED lighting options.
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