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The Word from YFSOL - Special - 14th January 2011
With markets closed over the December/January holiday period, we thought we'd bring you a view on investment prospects for 2011 , we'll bring you the regular "Word from YFSOL" once again on February 1st.
So what's in store for 2011?
The start of the year serves as a natural point at which many investors reassess their investment portfolios, with one eye on the outlook for the coming 12 months.
Last year (some might say 'surprisingly') provided opportunities for impressive returns for those that were allocated to the year's growth stories, against a backdrop of inflation, deflation and currency wars.
The outlook for 2011 will vary from one expert to the next, such is the uncertainty that continues to hang over global markets.
Here we take in the views of Bob Doll, the Global Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock - one of the world's largest fund management companies.
Stocks could post double-digit returns in 2011 for the third straight year and outdo global markets, according to Doll.
He suggest that the S&P 500 index should rise to at least 1,350 by the end of 2011, implying a 7.4percent move in the U.S. index, calling that figure "a floor" for their target. He forecasts improved growth, bolstered by falling unemployment and strong earnings for more gains in stocks.
Doll, a senior Managing Director at BlackRock who oversees more than USD300bn as part of BlackRock's USD3.45tn in assets under management, said the U.S. will outperform the MSCI World Index, as it did in 2010.
The U.S. should benefit from more fiscal and monetary stimulus, a more innovative economy and better earnings growth prospects, all of which should help U.S. stock market performance, Doll said recently.
The strength of the market should accelerate a developing shift once again to equity funds by retail investors and away from fixed income. "Equities are likely to take over from fixed income as the preferred asset class," he said.
Doll believes that the energy sector could be the top industry pick, followed by technology stocks, while financials were his least favourite sector. "My concern is where the revenue is going to come from for financial sector companies", he said.
Doll also said earnings should rise to an all-time high, surpassing the USD91.47 per-share record for the S&P reached in 2007.
Credit problems remain a concern though, and high commodities prices could pressure profit margins, he said.
"What does the dark side look like? Credit is still an issue," particularly in the U.S. housing market, sovereign debt markets in Europe and U.S. state and local municipalities, he said.
Commodity price increases and inflation fears also could derail a slow U.S. recovery, he said.
"The removal of the Bush tax cut uncertainties and the fears of a double-dip recession as well as improved confidence will lead to more hiring," Doll said.
But perhaps the greatest uncertainty of all is uncertainty itself.
Some investors are happy to follow the route into emerging market strategies, others are becoming more risk-averse, instead opting for a multi-asset non -correlated investment approach, or indeed both!
At Yachting Financial Solutions we can help you create a financial plan encompassing any or indeed all of these options........... |