In what President Obama described as a "shellacking", the U.S. House of Representatives in the 112th Congress will become a Republican dominated body with a gain of at least 61+ seats (several are still too-close-to call), and there was a huge gain in the nation's statehouses.
More elegantly described in a front-page New York Times article entitled, "Tide Turns, Slowly", Peter Baker wrote,
"Somewhere along the way, the apostle of change became its target, engulfed by the same wave of discontent that vaulted him to the White House two years ago. Now, President Obama must find a way to recalibrate with nothing less than his presidency on the line." Republican SweepHistorically, this is the 3rd president in a row to loose a pendulum or "wave election." While former Speaker Thomas "Tip" O'Neill is frequently quoted for saying "All politics is local", the races on Election Day 2010 were "nationalized". Ironically, it was frequently the party's "Blue Dog Democrats" that were defeated in marginal districts where the independents that in 2006 and 2008 gave the Dems huge victories, now swung the other way to elect a record number of new freshman Republicans.
Pollster Anne Greenberg put the Republican vote at about 36%, the same percentage as its been in the last few elections. What changed in this mid-term election was that fewer "soft" Democrats voted, and most of the "independents" that had voted for Democrats in 2006 and 2008, this time voted for Republicans. As one respondent said, "This was not a vote for Republicans; it was a vote against Democrats." According to "Real Clear Politics", it was the biggest loss of incumbent House seats in generations.
The Republicans regained many of the junior or 1st term representatives that had lost recently in Democratic sweeps from previously conservative or swing districts. And several senior incumbents, such as House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton were defeated.
It's the Economy, StupidAccording to the Pew Research Center, the economy was the main issue on the minds of voters. Additionally, the health care votes among Dems in "swing districts" was important. "Among 22 who provided crucial yes votes from particularly risky districts, 19 ended up losing on Tuesday. Of the 30 Democrats who opposed the final bill and then stood for re-election, 17 lost anyway. Among 49 Democratic incumbents who lost on Tuesday, 32 had voted for the health care law and 17 against it. At least 27 of the 53 members of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition won't be returning to Washington next year. (Five retired, 22 were defeated Tuesday and three others are in races too close to call.)"
The U.S. House of Representatives will now be controlled by the Republican majority. The Democrats will have 186 (a loss of at least 61) to the Republican's 240 (a gain of at least 61) with several seats still too close to call. The Republican members will occupy the leadership posts of Speaker, will all be the committee and subcommittee chairmen, will set the agenda and the calendar, and will indisputably be in control.
While the Senate will remain a majority of Democrats, the ratio will be Democrats 53 (-6) to Republicans 47 (+6).
Divided GovernmentWith the Senate and the White House remaining in Democratic hands, the American electorate has again chosen a "divided" government, signaling even less trust for their federally elected officials. And if by some fluke Independent Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) or Democratic conservative Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) should decide to "caucus" with the Republicans, than the 112th Congress will be almost evenly matched.
Governors' Races - Dems 19 (-7), Republicans 29 (+6)In the states, the Republicans were also victorious, giving the GOP the majority of governorships (more than 30, up from 22 in 2006) and flipping at least 19 state legislative chambers. There will be 10 new governors; 6 Republican incumbents remained. Given that the governors and state houses will be deciding the structure of the 435 Congressional Districts based on the recently completed census, their impact could be felt over the next decade.
Republicans won 12 governorships previously controlled by Democrats or Independents, many more than the number that flipped from Democrats to Republicans. In some cases, the Republican winners strongly opposed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act during their campaigns.
Democratic WinsFor the Democrats, the map will show a few patches of blue. In California, both statewide races were won by the Democrats. Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer fought off a challenge by former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina, and former governor Jerry Brown beat off former ebay executive Meg Whitman. In both cases, the former business women spent millions of dollars of their own money, to no avail. Throughout the state, most incumbents won re-election without a problem.
In Colorado, Denver's liberal mayor John Hickenlooper's victory was helped since the conservative vote was split by 2 challengers: Republican Dan Maes and third-party candidate, and former Congressman, Tom Tancredo.
As expected, in Massachusetts and Maryland, incumbents Governor Deval Patrick and Governor Martin O'Malley won, and in the open NY race, Andrew Cuomo also won.
In Connecticut, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal beat former World Wrestling executive Linda McMahon.
In the important "swing states" of Ohio and Pennsylvania, former OMB Director Rob Portman easily beat the state's Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, and Congressman Pat Toomey defeated Congressman Joe Sestak. Ohio's incumbent Governor Ted Strickland lost his bid to a second term, increasing the hopes for the Republicans in the 2012 presidential election.
In OK, NM and SC - women, an Hispanic, and an Indian-American won. While the "Tea Party" backed women in Delaware and Nevada lost.
Tea PartyFor the "Tea Party" there were mixed results. In the biggest race, which was described as a "trophy seat", Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid defeated Sharron Angle.
Delaware's Christine O'Donnell ("I'm not a witch") had beaten Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle who had previously won 12 state-wide elections. (I think Beau Biden did not run because of Castle's perceived strength.) However, in this election, she was defeated by New Castle County Executive Chris Coons.
In Alaska, sitting Senator (and daughter of the former Senator) Lisa Murkowski is leading as a "write-in" in a 3 way race against Sitka Mayor Scott Adams, and Tea Partier Joe Miller who had beaten Murkowski in the state's Republican primary.
In Kentucky, Rand Paul easily won the open senate seat; Marco Rubio won in Florida in a 3 way race against Congressman Kendrick Meek, and former Governor Charles Crist.
And so maybe a divided Government makes sense? Here's what Rabbi Irwin Kula, of CLAL, has to say:
"In the days before the election, there were two seemingly contradictory polls that together might suggest something necessary and wise about what we the people are doing in our seemingly spasmodic moves from one side of the political divide to the other. According to a Gallup poll, only a third of the public thinks that members of either party have a clear plan for solving the country's problems. And there has been little change in the low confidence in Republicans since the 2008 election despite the Republican "resurgence" in this election -- while confidence in Democrats has diminished over the past two years. In other words, the vast majority of people in this country -- whomever they voted for -- have little confidence that either party is capable of addressing the problems we face. In the face of society defining challenges: a new economic reality, energy, climate change, immigration, education, health, unprecedented income inequality, the Muslim world... the only sane response is uncertainty. Anyone who claims to know for sure how to address these problems -- all of which require long term, structural, and life style altering policies -- possesses dangerous false confidence. Two-thirds of the voters know this while for some 15% of voters on each of the far ends of the political divide ideology organizes facts, drives policy, and creates the illusion of certainty. But for the rest of us there are no easy answers."
