Reames Financial
 
Where Are We Now?
Weekly Update - January 9, 2012
In This Issue
Performance
Headlines
Recipe
Health Tip

Dear ,

Where Are We Now

That's the question we are evaluating as we prepare for the Reames Financial 2012 Kickoff Event.

Where Are We Now? 

 

Before we can adequately develop a plan of action we have to know where we are right now.  What are the circumstances we find ourselves in right now that may affect the outcome of our investment objectives for the coming year?  Does the declining unemployment rate signal an improving jobs picture?  Will volatility continue to grow?  How about the debt crisis in Europe?  Are our market expectations for the coming year rational?  What effect will the Presidential election have on the markets? 

These are some of the issue we will be talking about at our 2012 Reames Financial Kick Off Event called:

Where Are We NowWhere Are We Now? 

Taking the Pulse of the Economic Recovery

 

Before we give you the all the details of the event, let's just look at just one issue now. 


Are Our Market Expectations Rational?

Take a look at this chart (All three charts are courtesy of Elliottwave ( www.elliottwave.com ).

 

Bears

 

Right now, according to the AAII Sentiment Survey, only 17.2% of investors are Bearish.  That means that 82.2% of investors are Bullish.  Does that seem reasonable to you?  Is that a Reasonable Expectation?

 

For one clue, let's take a look at the charts of several markets from around the world.
 Trend 1

  Trend 2

  

As you can see everything from stock markets to commodities, to China, to the Euro are all in downtrends; although to be fair, many of the markets are in minor uptrends within the context of a more major downtrend.  So the question is:  Are those uptrends enough to justify 82.2% Bullishness or is it more indicative of irrational hope?  Is it a Rational Expectation? 


Your answer to that question is an important factor in developing your plan for this year. 

 

So please join us for the 2012 Reames Financial Kick Off Event where we will give you our take on all of these issues.  We'll take a look from a Common Sense perspective, a Fundamental perspective, a Dent Demographics perspective, and a Technical perspective.  Here are the details.


Where Are We Now

Where:  M-Tec Center (Part of KVCC) 

      7107 Elm Valley Dr.

                             Kalamazoo, MI 49009
               When:   Tuesday January 24, 2012 @ 6:30 PM
               Phone:  269-349-3966  or 1-877-349-3966 to

                            reserve your spot.

 

Or you can register online by clicking below:

 

Register 

 

Feel free to invite a friend! 

Looking forward to seeing you on January 24th!
 
ECONOMIC CALENDAR: 
Monday -Consumer Credit
 
Tuesday - Redbook, Wholesale Trade
Wednesday - EIA Petroleum Status Report, Beige Book
Thursday - Jobless Claims, Retail
Sales, Business Inventories, Treasury Budget
Friday - International Trade, Import and Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment
Performance


Updated Chart 01-09-12

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.

Headlines

All three U.S. automakers are on track to be profitable in 2011 when they report results in the coming weeks. That's something that hasn't happened since 2004.[4]

 

Gas prices in the United States increased by more than a dime over the past three weeks, the first increase seen since mid-October, according to a survey published Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.35 as of Friday, the Lundberg Survey found. That's an increase of 12 cents from the last survey of 2011, conducted December 16.[5]

 

The U.S. added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in a fresh sign the economy is picking up and businesses are more willing to hire. The increase in jobs last month was the fourth biggest gain of 2011.[6]

 

The Federal Reserve has decided to share the likely path of interest rates, according to minutes of its December 13 meeting released Tuesday. Starting in January, the Fed will release the range of Federal Open Market Committee member forecasts of the appropriate level on the target federal funds rate in the fourth quarter of the current year and the next few years.[7]

  

 


Quote of the Week
"Never trust a computer you can't throw out a window."~Steve Wozniak
Recipe of the Week

Lemon Basil Muffins


RECIPE 01/09/12

Add a tantalizing twist to ordinary lemon muffins with this easy recipe from Betty Crocker.

Ingredients:

2 eggs

2 cups Original Bisquick® mix

1/3 cup sugar

1 teaspoon grated lemon peel

1/4 cup lemon juice

1/4 cup water

2 tablespoons vegetable oil

1/2 teaspoon dried basil leaves, crumbled

 

Directions:

1)    Heat oven to 400 degrees. Place paper baking cup in each of 12 medium muffin cups, 2 ½ x 1 ¼ inches, or grease bottoms only of cups with shortening.

2)    Beat eggs slightly in medium bowl. Stir in remaining ingredients just until moistened. Divide batter evenly among cups.

      3)    Bake 15 to 18 minutes or until tops are golden brown. Serve warm.



Healthy Lifestyle

 

Lift Weights

While exercising, don't forget to include a measure of strength training, involving both your upper and lower body. Too many people neglect resistance exercise, particularly women for whom it's crucial for preventing muscle and bone loss with age. Lift weights for at least 20 minutes, two to three times per week.[8] 

 

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!   

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!


Securities offered through Foothill Securities, Inc.  Member FINRA/SIPC.
Reames Financial is not an affiliate of Foothill Securities, Inc.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

 

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

These are the views of Reames Financial and not necessarily those of Foothill Securities, Inc., and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither Phil Reames, Reames Financial, nor Foothill Securities, Inc. gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
 

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

[1] http://www.google.com/finance

[2] http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/08/markets/stocks_lookahead/index.htm, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/latest-data-fails-to-shake-caution-on-us-economy-2012-01-08

[3] http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/08/markets/stocks_lookahead/index.htm

[4] http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/05/news/companies/auto_industry_profits/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

[5] http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/08/news/economy/gas_prices.cnnw/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

[6] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-200000-jobs-in-december-2012-01-06?link=MW_story_insert

[7] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-to-map-out-each-members-rate-forecast-2012-01-03?link=MW_story_insert

[8] http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/food/gallery/healthtips?pg=2

 
Phil Reames
Reames Financial
1856 Skyler Dr.
Kalamazoo, MI 49008
269-349-3966