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No BS Weekly Update - October 10, 2011
The Great Crash Ahead - Harry Dent's New Book!
In This Issue
Performance
Headlines
Recipe
Golf Tip

Dear  , 

 

Great Crash

What are they saying about Harry Dent's new book, The Great Crash Ahead? 


"Dent brings more very convincing analysis on the unbearable debt that is weighing down the US and world economy. But more important, he brings the unique lens of demographics to shoJohn Mauldinw how the Fed's stimulus plan is doomed to fail with the rising savings and slowing spending of the massive Baby Boom generation. A must read book for prospering in the inevitable debt crisis ahead."

--John Mauldin, 4 times New York Times best selling author of Endgame and financial newsletter publisher of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box.


"I have watched Harry Dent's unique demographic approach to the economy and his forecasts for over 20 years. He has seen most of the key economic changes way ahead of most. In fact, he forecastTony Robins the current economic crisis 20 years ago! He has spoken at many of my events around the world and has helped many prepare for the unprecedented economic challenges we are facing today. But perhaps the best thing about Harry is his very human, understandable and common sense approach to economics." 

- Anthony Robbins, Entrepreneur, Author and Peak Performance Strategist


Ed Slott "The Great Crash Ahead" sounds ominous, but it doesn't have to be if you know what factors to look at when making new decisions about your career, your investments and your business model. The old remedies won't work anymore, but visionaries Harry Dent and Rodney Johnson provide their unique insight on how to make your future a prosperous one.

--Ed Slott, CPA, author, IRA expert, creator of PBS Special "Stay Rich Forever and Ever"


"Dent is the reigning expert in using sophisticated demograBob McTeerphic models to see around the economic corner. He saw the boom of the 1990s and warned that a bust would come in 2008 forward. Now he tells us the worst is not over. Harry makes a clear and compelling case for what could be a tough time ahead."

--Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


Why should we care what Harry Dent has to say?  There are several reasons but one of them is that these people care and they are really smart people.  Another reason is that he has made some very accurate calls over the years.  Is he always right?  Of course not. 

 

But he is right often enough about the big picture that we find him to be an invaluable resource.  (Actually that's not true.  We can put a value on it.  We spend over $5,000 a year to have access to Harry's knowledge and research for our clients).


Great BoomHarry's first book, The Great Boom Ahead, was first published in 1993.  Here are a couple of his predictions from pages 15 and 16 of that first book.


-30 year fixed mortgage rates fall ultimately to 5 to 6 percent.  (Remember this was back in 1993.  He was right that rates would fall to unimaginable lows but even he underestimated how low they would end up going.)


-A Spectacular boom in the emrging industrializing countries in the Far East, Latin America, and Eastern Europe.  Strongest countries-China and Mexico..(Again got the trend right and one of the two countries were correct.  Not bad when looking 20 years into the future!)

 

-The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023.  (When did the market peak?  October of 2007.  Pretty darn close when making a prediction from 15 years ago!)


So What Is Harry Saying Now?


Great CrashHere are just a few of the chapters.


-Deflation is the trend - and It Changes Everything


-Deleveraging and Deflation - It's All About Money and Restructuring of Debt


-Why the Stimulus Plan Will Fail - The Recovery Is Not Real


-How You Can Thrive and Survive!


The markets have been really volatile the last several months.  Many people are wondering, has the Bear Market returned?  Where is this thing headed?  Is it starting all over again?


If you are wondering things like that and more then I would really suggest that you give Harry's new book a read.  Here are a couple of links to Harry's book on Amazon.com and BarnesandNoble.com for your convenience.

 

 Dent Ad - AmazonDent Ad - BandN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:                                        
Monday - U.S. Holiday: Columbus Day
Tuesday - FOMC Minutes   
Thursday - International Trade, Jobless Claims, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Treasury Budget
Friday - Retail Sales, Import and Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories


 

 

Performance


Chart_10_10

Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MSCI Barra. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not available.

Headlines

Steve Jobs, the co-founder and board chairman of one of the world's greatest companies, will long be remembered as a remarkable man. We have truly lost a great visionary who enriched the lives of millions by means of technology. Born in 1955 to a world of rotary phones and room-sized computers, he left behind a world where over 100 million people carry a small device called an iPhone - which is both a phone and a computer - in their pockets. Steve Jobs is a man who will unquestionably be missed.[4]

Business-jet sales may increase worldwide starting in 2012 as emerging-market demand picks up. Purchase expectations are growing in Asia, followed by the Middle East and Africa, while the free-fall in developed markets like North America following 2008's recession has stabilized, according to an annual survey of 1,500 companies by Honeywell International Inc., a New Jersey-based avionics and cockpit-instruments maker.

Consumers cut their borrowing in August by the most in 16 months. Fewer people used their credit cards. And a measure of demand for auto and student loans fell. Total borrowing dropped $9.5 billion in August, the Federal Reserve said last week. In July, borrowing increased $11.9 billion.[5]

While the nation added jobs last month, public schools lost 24,400 positions - the most of any category. Local government in total shed 35,000 jobs. Teachers continue to get pummeled as state and local governments digest budget cuts for fiscal 2012, which began in July in most states.[6]



Quote of the Week
"To be successful, you have to have your heart in your business, and your business in your heart." - Thomas Watson, Sr.
Recipe of the Week

Tomato-Tortellini Soup


Recipe_10_10

From: Better Homes and Gardens

Cream cheese and tomato soup make a rich and creamy base for this four-ingredient tortellini soup recipe that can be prepared in just 15 minutes.

Ingredients:
2 14-ounce cans reduced-sodium chicken broth or vegetable broth  
1 9-ounce package refrigerated tortellini  
1/2 of an 8-ounce tub cream cheese spread with chive and onion  
1 10.75- or 11-ounce can condensed tomato or tomato bisque soup  
Snipped fresh chives (optional)

Directions:
In a medium saucepan, bring broth to boiling. Add tortellini; reduce heat. Simmer, uncovered, for 5 minutes. In a bowl, whisk 1/3 cup of the hot broth into the cream cheese spread until smooth. Return all to saucepan along with tomato soup; heat through. Sprinkle with chives before serving. Makes 4 servings.



Golf Tip
Build a Solid Foundation

A consistent golf swing requires a smooth tempo and good balance. Just as a house needs a solid foundation, so does a golf swing.

Practice hitting some shots with your feet close together (about six inches apart). This forces you to maintain better balance, tempo, and rhythm, and will prove effective when you go back to hitting from your normal stance.

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Securities offered through Foothill Securities, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.
Reames Financial is not an affiliate of Foothill Securities, Inc.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.


 
 
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.  

 

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

 

These are the views of Reames Financial and not necessarily those of Foothill Securities, Inc., and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither Phil Reames, Reames Financial, nor Foothill Securities, Inc. gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

 

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server as they are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

  

[1] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 
[2] http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2011/10/7/non-farm-payrolls-were-up-103,000-in-september 
[3] http://www.bls.gov 
[4] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-09/business-jet-sales-may-increase-in-2012-as-asia-blunts-slow-global-economy.html 
[5] http://www.chron.com/business/article/Consumer-borrowing-dropped-9-5-billion-in-August-2208661.php 
[6] http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/07/news/economy/local_government_jobs/index.htm?iid=HP_River   

 

 
Phil Reames
Reames Financial
1856 Skyler Dr.
Kalamazoo, MI 49008
269-349-3966