The Supreme Court ruling will address three main issues:
- The Individual Mandate: requires most individuals to purchase health insurance or face a financial penalty. Opponents of the law claim this is unconstitutional and pundits think this is the most likely aspect of the ACA to be struck down.
- Severability: the legal term for whether a provision in a law may be struck down while keeping the rest of the law intact. If the individual mandate is found unconstitutional then some or all of the rest of the ACA may also be struck.
- Medicaid Expansion: makes most individuals at or below 138% of the Federal Poverty Level eligible starting 2014. It is likely to be upheld but anything is possible.
There are numerous potential combinations of rulings on these issues, so the impact is difficult to predict.
The Medicaid Expansion is the provision most directly related to HCH grantees and the provision that holds the most promise for our patients. If it is found unconstitutional, either on its own merits or because it is not severable from the individual mandate, it would be a devastating blow.
The individual mandate does not impact most HCH patients as directly since most are exempt due to very low incomes. If it is struck, however, the private insurance market is likely to be impacted, potentially leading to increased private health care costs or a loss of insurance protections, such as the protections currently in place for people with pre-existing conditions. Multitudes of other provisions important to the HCH community also are at risk, such as increased health center funding, workforce investments, and delivery system reforms.
A silver lining to all of this is that a single-payer health care system is irrefutably constitutional and the best option for universal coverage should the ACA be struck.