The Canada Mortage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Housing Market Outlook reports that Housing Starts should remain steady throughout 2011 and into 2012.
"After moderating progressively since the second quarter of 2010, housing starts have rebounded in the second quarter of 2011. They are expected to moderate again over the course of the next three quarters. Housing starts are forecast to be 183,200 units for 2011 and 183,900 units for 2012."*
Regionally, CMHC forecasts that Alberta and British Columbia should see marked increases in housing starts in 2012, while Manitoba will experience modest growth.
2012 Housing Starts Forecast by Province*
(combined single and muliple unit)
Newfoundland - decline of 3.9%
Prince Edward Island - decline of 3.7%
Nova Scotia - decline of 5.6%
New Brunswick - decline of 3.2%
Quebec - decline of 6.7%
Ontario - decline of 2.6%
Manibroba - increase of 1.9
Saskatchewan - decline of 6.6
Alberta - increase of 15.5%
British Columbia - increase of 9.8%
Economic Forecast*
CMHC projects growth in Gross Domestic Product of 2.9% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012, along with an expected decrease in the unemployment rate to 7.5% in 2011 and 7.0% in 2012.
Mortgage rates are expected to stay at historically low levels with posted one-year rates between 2.6 and 4.0% and three and five-year posted rates in the 3.3 to 5.6 per cent range.
Renovations**
Canadians spent over $22.8 billion on renovations in 10 cities across Canada in 2010. St John's had the highest percentage of homeowner renovations at 48%, followed by Ottawa and Halifax at 47%. The overall average was 42%. 8% of homeowners purchased heating and/or air conditioning equipment. The average cost of renovations as $12,972.
39% of respondents to the CMHC survey intend to renovate in 2011. Figures for 2012 are not yet available.
*Housing Market Outlook, Canada Highlights Edition, Third Quarter 2011, published by CMHC
**Renovation and Home Purchase Report, 2011, published by CMHC
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