 Notes from the East Woods musings on opportunities in the life science marketplace
November 2010
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| Greetings! |
Sometimes you need to cruise your woodlot of products and make some choices. Please have a read and feel free to let me know what you think.
Regards,
Paul Danis Founder and Principal
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Timber Cruising Your Portfolio
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I went timber cruising last weekend. No, this is not aimlessly driving the back roads of New England, but rather, walking around the woods selecting trees for next year's firewood. I take little pink ribbons and tie them around the trees that will eventually keep us warm during the blizzards of January 2012. Though the forest has over 100 trees per acre, I don't just pick the first 30 trees I see. I have another objective beyond just cutting firewood - I also want a healthy and robust forest that supports a diverse range of wildlife. I actually see many companies in a similar situation - an overstocked portfolio of products and applications, and struggling to support and grow them all. For those folks, it is time to apply some well-directed timber cruising. The starting point for the selection process is actually in the future. Ask the question, "where do we want to be in 5 years" (or pick your favorite horizon.) For the East Woods, I am looking 10 years down the road at big trees able to fend off beetles and ice (see Dec 2008.) Similarly, your business first needs to define its long term goals, be they top line growth, strategic partnerships, near-term profits, market position, or exit. Once you have the bar set, it is somewhat straight-forward to go through your opportunities and find the ones to pursue. There are a few big slices you can take that will get you well on your way. - First which applications have a sizeable market that the product can address? When I size up a tree I prefer to take a fatter one that will yield much more wood with only incrementally more effort that a skinny one. Also, a red oak will produce heat much better than a white pine.
- Second, can you actually get your products to the customers who will benefit from them? Though I may find some nice oaks way out in the woods, if I can't get them to my house without a Herculean effort, then it is a lost cause.
- Third does your offering solve a problem that is really important to the customer? Many nice-to-have products have sounded great only to languish on the shelves. When I plan to take down a tree I always consider how much more light and nutrition will fall on its neighbors if this one is removed. Energy and food, along with water, are the primary currencies of growth in the forest.
- Lastly, will your selection make the company better off in the long run? Can you leverage this product for follow-on applications and build the company around this. When I look at the trees, I always select the weaker, crooked trees and leave the strongest and straightest. They will grow faster, produce more nuts (offspring, food), and look nicer.
So while you ponder all the wonderful products and opportunities you have, remember that if you cull out the weakest, the strongest will flourish from the additional sunlight (resources) and nutrition ($$). With this accomplished, your woodlot of products will be strong, robust, and fast growing, just like the East Woods.
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Life Science Market Update
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Index
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Oct Value
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Change 12mo.
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12 mo. High
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12 mo. Low
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EC BioTools
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718
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14%
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738
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609
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EC BigPharma
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791
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6%
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801
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696
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EC Biotech
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615
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27%
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642
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484
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All indices moved north for the month; Biotech and BigPharma each up 1% while BioTools moved 5%. In the Tools sector, almost all companies were up and with Caliper, Illumina and Luminex up over 10%. BigPharma was mixed and the standout was King, up 45% on Pfizer's $3.6B play to get in the generics game. The Biotech sector was also mixed, and the standouts were Amylin and Alkermes. Their stocks were down 37% and 21%, resp., for the month, on the news that the FDA did not approve their long-acting diabetes drug, Bydureon, they are co-developing with Lilly. The FDA wants more data on cardiac side effects.
EC BioIndex October 2010
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Many of the life science indices currently available are a mixture of various types of companies. In order to better assess the situation in the different segments, Eastwoods Consulting has created these price-weighted indices for the sectors of large pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, and life science research tools companies.
- EC BioTools Index - A, ACCL, AFFX, BEC, BIO, BRKR, CALP, DNEX, HBIO, HLCS, ILMN, LIFE, LMNX, PKI, QGEN, SIAL, TECH, TMO, WAT
- EC BigPharma Index - JNJ, PFE, GSK, NVS, SNY, LUN, ABT, LLY, AZN, WYE, BMY, NVO, BAX, TEVA, KG, ROG.VX
- EB Biotech Index - AMGN, GENZ, BIIB, CEPH, GILD, BMRN, AMLN, IDXX, ITMN, SEPR, PDLI, CPHD, ALKS, REGN, VRTX, THRX, HGSI, SGMO, NKTR
- Prices are taken at the close of each month.
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| About Eastwoods Consulting
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Translating Innovations into Profits for the Life Science IndustrysmEastwoods Consulting helps life science companies grow their businesses. Please visit our web site or contact us to learn more about how we help companies succeed in competitive markets.
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Copyright © 2010, Eastwoods Consulting. This
publication may be freely redistributed in full or in part as long as full
attribution including our contact information and web address, are included. Eastwoods is a registered servicemark of Eastwoods Consultng.
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