October 25, 2011Issue 57

Journey with DWM to
What's Next

 

 Some economists say "up" and some say "down". The truth is, no one knows the future. But affluent, enlightened investors recognize that DWM strategies perform in up markets and protect in down markets. Regardless of what the future holds, with DWM, savvy investors are ready for what's next.

Occupy Wall Street, Tea Party: United in Anger

wall street

From Seattle to Sydney, protesters have taken to the streets. They burn with dissatisfaction about the state of the economy, about the unfair way the poor are paying for the sins of the rich bankers, and, in some cases, capitalism itself. Certainly some of the protesters certainly would fit the stereotype of being "unemployed, uneducated, and uninformed". However, a survey of the demonstrators in Zuccotti Park on October 5th showed that half of those who participated are employed full-time with 30% earning over $75,000 annually and 2% earning more than $150,000 per year. One-third of them in Zuccotti Park that day were over 35 years of age.

 

While the troubled economy is at the root of anger for both Occupy Wall Street ("OWS") and the Tea Party, there's a key difference. Tea party activists generally support free markets and want to limit the government. OWSers say the financial system is broken or nearly broken and the government can provide some solutions.

 

Protests against big banks and the men of Wall Street are not new in U.S. history. Scott Simon, of NPR's weekend edition recently interviewed Professor Steven Fraser of Columbia University. Mr. Fraser indicated that the first Wall Street panic happened in 1792. It was set off by an insider trading scheme engineered by a small group of aristocratic bankers. When their scheme collapsed the local economy collapsed with it, an enraged mob of citizens chased the leader through the streets of New York City and were about to hang him before the sheriff arrived. He was carted off to debtor's prison and died there several years later.

 

Professor Fraser suggests and that the current OWS movement includes common themes and slogans of the past. "People have been periodically very concerned with the disproportionate economic and political power wielded by the great financial institutions of the country. And, the protesters have been upset by the power of the Street to subvert the democratic process because their money brought them so much political influence.

 

OWS type protests have occurred in over 900 cities and 82 countries. In many cities, such as London and New York, the protestors have set up encampments that are meant to last indefinitely. Other protests came and went. Most were peaceful, except in Rome, where repair costs were estimated at $1.4 million. In Israel, the public unhappiness focused on the cost of food, housing and education. Spain's indignados, or indignant ones, have been going strong since May. In Asia, in places like Japan, Australia and Hong Kong, the focus is on the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it is threatening the very tenets of capitalism and democracy.

 

Back home, if you listen to OWS and Tea Party protests, you might hear similar opinions on the 2008 bank bailout, the federal deficit and government spending, and the influence of corporations and money on Congress. Harvard Professor Lawrence Lessig says there is too much power in too few hands. "We have a government where members spend between 30 to 70 percent of their time raising money to get back to Congress, and Congress is increasingly dependent on the funders."

 

To date, the OWS movement does not appear to have clear leadership, a consistent message and specific policy objectives. Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation suggests OWS should focus on accomplishing a three part legislative solution:

  1. No more bailouts: Bring back real capitalism. We cannot live in a society of privatized gains and socialized loses.
  2. End Too Big to Fail Banks. They reduce economic competition, concentrate risks and raise costs for consumers.
  3. Take Congress back from Wall Street. Mr. Ritholtz suggests that a Constitutional Amendment is needed mandating public financing of Congressional elections and criminalizing the purchases of politicians. Lobbyists need to be marginalized and voters need to be returned as the most important people in the nation.

These three goals should be issues that can be agreed upon by both the Left and the Right. And, if accomplished, they could have a real impact on legislation, the economy and taxes. Let's hope some of this financial rage actually results in a combined solution for needed reform.

 

For more information: www.economist.com/node/21533400

In This Issue
Occupy Wall Street, The Tea Party: United in Anger
European Debt Crises: Leaders Seek Breakthrough
Ask DWM: When is it Time to Switch Financial Advisors?
World Series: Dugout Phones Are Still Landlines
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European Debt Crises: Leaders Seek Breakthough

merkozy

European leaders are in the midst of the 13th crisis summit in 21 months, still searching for the solution to help stamp out the Greece-led debt shock that threatens the world economy. They've got a particularly tough task. Greece's finances have worsened. And, solutions that work on paper are often unattainable in a euro zone of 17 sovereign countries.

 

The write-down on Greek debt now appears to be at least 50% and perhaps as much as 60% or more. In addition, around 100 billion euros ($138 billion) is needed to recapitalize European banks. The three most important players- Germany, France, and the European Central Bank- have until now disagreed on the comprehensive package to restructure Greece's debt and increase the euro zone's bailout fund. However, the New York Times on Sunday reported that Saturday's talks established an "improved tone" over the past week and that European finance ministers were near a deal. Definitive steps are expected to be announced on Wednesday, October 26th.

 

Here in the United States, the recurring question is how much risk does Europe's debt crisis pose to our economy. While many American financial institutions have sought to limit the damage to Europe's problems, there are other indirect exposures that are less known and understood. The recent rescue of the Belgian-French bank Dexia points out some of the potential global risks.

 

Just two weeks ago, France, Belgium and Luxembourg announced plans to bailout Dexia. The three countries agreed to provide a total of $122 billion worth of guarantees for the bank over the next ten years. Belgium also agreed to buy Dexia's retail operations for $5 billion. At the time, Dexia had a portfolio of loans and bonds of almost $800 billion, twice the GDP of Greece. Dexia is one of the world's largest public-finance banks, lending to local governments worldwide. Dexia has suffered in several lines of business, including Greece debt. Its biggest problem was wrong-way bets it made on interest rates. Dexia often lent money at fixed rates and borrowed the funds at floating rates. It lost billions of dollars when the cost of borrowing exceeded the interest it charged on loans.

 

Two of Dexia's biggest trading partners are Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Dexia, in negotiations with these two institutions, made a major miscalculation in that it protected itself only if interest rates rose. Instead, interest rates fell, and Dexia had to post billions of euros in collateral to the institutions on the opposite side of the trade, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Now, however, the bailout of Dexia is expected to allow Dexia to pay all of its trading partners in full.

 

Many analysts compare the Dexia bailout to the U.S. bailout of A.I.G. three years ago. Whether this rescue sets a precedent in Europe will be watched closely. The debate centers on how much of burden taxpayers should bear to support banks that made ill-advised loans or trades.

 

It may be difficult for European governments to avoid making banking trading partners whole, especially American institutions. The U.S. government paid full value to foreign banks that dealt with A.I.G. and made Federal Reserve programs available to troubled foreign banks. Dexia, for example, received $58 billion from the Fed through such a program.

 

All eyes are now on Brussels. Given the global and interconnected nature of the financial system and world economic health, what's happens in Europe has a huge impact on the United States. There are huge direct and indirect risks. Let's hope the European finance ministers are able to find and implement a workable solution.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020477904576648542977238626.html

Ask DWM: When is it Time to Switch Financial Advisors?

ria

One of the participants at our recent seminar in Charleston asked the question on their evaluation sheet: "How do you evaluate portfolio managers and financial planners? When is it time to switch?" We thought we would share our response with you. 

 

First, there are questions to ask yourself. You need to be able to articulate your needs and expectations. You should review why you are considering changing your advisor. Has your portfolio outgrown your advisor's expertise? Is your current advisor up to date with investment techniques and strategies? Does the advice you are currently receiving reflect your goals, situation, life stage and risk tolerance? Does your advisor listen or just talk? Does your advisor provide not only investment advice but also advice on cash management, retirement planning, education funding, wealth transfers, insurance reviews, and other financial planning matters as part of their service? 

 

When you are choosing an advisor, trust is essential. You can find advisors in a variety of places- in a larger financial firm such as a brokerage house or bank or an independent advisory firm. Detterbeck Wealth Management is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA). RIAs may be a good choice for you for four important reasons. First, RIAs are independent, generally working in collaboration with various attorneys, CPAs, and insurance professionals to help clients with their complex financial needs. Second, RIAs are usually fee based. DWM, for example, is fee-only. A growing portfolio benefits us both. Third, RIAs like DWM are legally required to maintain a fiduciary relationship with its clients- putting your interests ahead of ours. Fourth, RIAs typically manage client assets using a third party custodian.

 

To start screening, develop a list of potential advisors including your current advisor. Review all pertinent information you can about an advisor. All RIAs are required to publicly disclose details about their business by filing a Form ADV. You can view any RIA firm's ADV including DWM's at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. As you prepare to interview advisors, review your personal objectives including investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, income needs, tax situation, other holdings and other needs.

 

Here are questions you need to ask your current advisor and other advisors you might be considering.

  • What are your credentials? CFP®? CFA? PFS? Other?
  • Do you offer the services I need? Money management? Financial Planning? Wealth Management?
  • How are you compensated?
  • How will we work together? With whom? How often? Access to information?
  • How do you approach investing for people like me? Performance? Investment Style? Investment Decisions?
  • Where will my assets be held? What safeguards are in place to protect them?

Take your time and do the proper due diligence. Ultimately, your evaluation and choice of advisor may be one of the most important decisions you and your family make. Times have changed. Today affluent investors typically need wealth management services, encompassing highly personalized, comprehensive financial planning as well as investment and portfolio management. And, they need investment advice that is tailored to their unique situation and includes strategies that participate in up markets and protect in down markets. DWM is precisely that type of firm.

World Series: Dugout Phones Are Still Landlines

 la rusa  

You've got to love baseball and the World Series. Some things never change.

 

In a world where cell phones are ubiquitous, baseball dugouts may be the last holdouts for landlines. Cell phones are prohibited in MLB dugouts.

 

Dugout phones have been particularly noticeable in this year's series, where both the Ranger and the Cardinals make frequent bullpen calls. Through five games, with the Rangers leading the series 3-2, there have been 36 appearances by relievers. For the most part, all the calls to the bullpen have come through without a hitch. Although crowd noise in Arlington last night may have caused a misunderstanding leading to the Rangers victory.

 

Lance Lynn, a Cardinals relief pitcher, recalls a game earlier in Philadelphia when a major technical issue forced the dugout to lose communication with the bullpen. The problem? Someone didn't hang up the phone properly. As result, manager Tony LaRussa sent Jaime Garcia, a young starter, running across the field with a message to the two relievers that needed to get warmed up- and to tell them to put the phone down properly.

 

LaRussa, in particular, has been racking up time on the phone. A relentless strategist, he often brings in a reliever to face just one batter if doing so can shut off a potential uprising by the opponents. His use of five or six relievers in a game is not unusual. Last night he wanted a right-hander Jason Motte to pitch to right-hand-hitting Mike Napoli, the game hero, but his phone instructions were misunderstood because the crowd was so loud.

 

In St. Louis, he has two phones in the dugout. One dials directly to the bullpen, the other rings the press box. (Apparently, while playing for the Mets, Bobby Bonilla dialed the press box at Shea Stadium from the dugout one day to complain about being charged with an error on a play.) The phones are secured in black and white shells labeled "telephone" from top to bottom and emit a high-pitched, discreet ring, so they can be heard above the crowd noise.

 

Exactly when dugout phones began to be used in baseball is unclear. The New York Times found mentions of them dating at least as far back as the mid-1950s. The phones have remained largely unchanged. The only regulation is that the phones remain a single line that connects the bullpen to the dugout, with no outside calling capability. According to Peter Woodfork, a senior vice president for operations with Major League Baseball, the league wants to "avoid a situation where the communication allows one team an advantage."

 

In this day and age of rapidly changing technology, it's nice to see the old landline in the dugout. Maybe some year, we Cubs fans will be able to watch our manager use one during the World Series. There's always next year!

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/sports/baseball/world-series-dugout-phones-last-bastion-of-the-landline.html

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