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| November 30, 2010 | Issue 42 |
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Journey with DWM to
What's Next
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Some economists say "up" and some say "down". The truth is, no one knows the future. But affluent, enlightened investors recognize that DWM strategies perform in up markets and protect in down markets. Regardless of what the future holds, with DWM, savvy investors are ready for what's next. | |
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Consumer Spending:
Black Friday Lives Up to Its Hype |
The shopping blitz is on. Over 212 million Americans visited a store or a website over Thanksgiving weekend. The average shopper spent 6.4% more this year than last, according to the National Retailer Federation. Retailers are hopeful that 2010 will be a return to more discretionary spending, following the previous two seasons of negative and almost flat sales.
Black Friday was started in 1966 or thereabouts. On the day after Thanksgiving, America's consumer hordes would head downtown and open their pocketbooks; moving retail stores' year to date bottom line from red to black. For the last decade, Black Friday may still have been the busiest shopping day of the year, but, according to Slate magazine, it wasn't the biggest. That's been reserved for Super Saturday, the last Saturday before Christmas. However, in 2010, Black Friday may outpace Super Saturday:
First, Christmas itself falls on Saturday. So, procrastinators will need to get in the stores by Friday.
Second, retailers are ready. They are offering low prices, grand giveaways and crazy promotions. The competition is particularly fierce. Many retailers have excess stock and have promised to meet any lower price than theirs. There has been an intensification of promotional efforts by retailers in November and Best Buy confirmed that it had begun its television advertising ten days earlier than last year. Toys R Us opened its door at 10 pm on Thanksgiving evening. Kohl's opened for business on Black Friday at 3 am; Target at 4, and Best Buy at 5.
Third, consumers are in battle-ready form, with new tools to help them. For buyers with smartphones, there are six new apps to help consumers shop smarter and simpler. All of these are free or low-cost apps for Apple and Droid devices:
· Shop Savvy. Make sure you are getting the best price with this app. Scan the barcode of the item and it will tell you the price at other stores as well as provide reviews.
· Coupon Sherpa (we like the name) and My Coupons. This will give you access to extra coupons and exclusive deals. Just show the coupon the phone's screen or give the code to the cashier.
· Pocket Auctions. Allows consumers to stay up to date on eBay auctions while on the go.
· Best Buy, Home Depot, Kmart2go. Many stores have their own apps. You can order right from your phone and you can find great deals only available online.
· Black Friday Ads. Browse all ads in a neat and organized display. The ads are updated on an ongoing basis and you'll see that on the app.
· Santa's Little Helper. We financial planners love this one. It helps you organize your shopping. You establish everyone who's getting a gift and a budget for each. It allows you to track your total spent at a glance. You can even add gifts without specifying a recipient, which is awesome if you find a good deal on something and want to decide later who will get it.
Fourth, and most important, there are signs that America's consumers are ready to start increasing their buying. A Gallup Poll show the average consumers anticipate spending $714 on holiday gifts this year, compared with $638 last year. Shopper Trak estimates overall holiday sales will improve 3.2% this year. If so, holiday sales will be just about $520 billion, exceeding the pre-recession total of $516 billion in 2007.
Of course, electronic gadgets will be hot. Even though Apple has already sold 7 million iPads, a survey by Change Wave Research found that 9% of holiday shoppers plan to buy an iPad in the next 90 days. Smartphones, productivity apps and console game systems are also expected to do well.
What's really neat is that regardless of your budget, you can afford this year's Hot Toy- Squinkies. These squishy toys come in plastic bubbles, as a vending machine would dispense, and are only $10 for a 16-pack. They are collectible and include hundreds of characters, including a Lhasa apso dog and a tiny bride. Check out this picture of a Squinkie pony. Better hurry. Squinkies are sold out or on back order at many stores. You'll need one to keep your Beanie Babies and pet rocks company.
For more information, click here.
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Detterbeck Wealth Management
www.dwmgmt.com
220 N. Smith Street
Suite 410
Palatine, IL 60067
847.359.6262
Suite 2A
Charleston, SC 29401
843.577.2463 |
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State Finances: Rail Splitter Bonds to Pay Illinois' Overdue Bills | |
Illinois, the Land of Lincoln, is hurting financially. It shares Moody's Investor's Service's worst state credit rating with California. Illinois still owes over $6.4 billion in last year's bills. Daniel Hynes, the state Comptroller reported in August that that these bills are being paid with revenue from fiscal 2011.
Yesterday, today and tomorrow, Illinois will sell $1.5 billion of tobacco bonds to pay bills. The bonds are being sold by the Railsplitter Tobacco Settlement Authority and will be backed by money from a 1998 settlement with tobacco companies. Illinois needs to pay the bills by December 31 or the vendors will file claims against the state.
Honest Abe, who used his railsplitting prowess as a part of his election branding, would certainly not be proud to have his name connected to Illinois' current financial woes.
Recently re-elected by the slimmest of margins, Governor Pat Quinn has indicated that Illinois is facing a $13 billion deficit for the 2011 fiscal year, which began July 1. He's called for a state income tax increase, a massive expansion of gambling venues, borrowing $4 billion to pay pension fund bills and now this $1.5 billion in tobacco bonds.
Tobacco bonds aren't new. Specially created state and city governmental authorities began issuing tobacco bonds a little more than ten years ago following a 1998 settlement between four major tobacco companies and 46 states over tobacco-related-health-care costs. The bonds are backed by payments to be made to the governments by the tobacco companies, based on projected cigarette sales.
The Railsplitter Authority bonds are the first ones the municipal bond market has seen in two and one-half years. Illinois, aware of its dismal credit rating, has designed their transaction in at least two different ways. First, the longest maturity will be 17.5 years, much shorter than the 40-45 year maturities on earlier issues. Second, according to Railsplitter authorities, there is "ample coverage" on the bonds; so that even if cigarette consumption declines by as much as 10% per year, bondholders would still get paid.
Earlier in November, Standard and Poor's downgraded to junk status 16 existing tobacco bond securitizations worth $22 billion. Yesterday's sale of the 2027 maturity Railsplitter bonds were at yields of 6.25%. Obviously, investors consider Illinois' Railsplitter bonds, despite their shorter maturity and better coverage, as "junk bonds" as well.
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Business: "Rebel" Southwest Flies into Charleston |
Last month, Southwest Airlines announced that it will begin service to and from Charleston starting March 13, 2011. There will be seven weekday departures from the Holy City; including two to Chicago Midway, three to Baltimore/Washington, and one each to Nashville and Houston. Initially, Southwest offered $30 one-way fares for two days and then $59 one-way fares, except Fridays and Sundays, from March 14, 2011 through May 25, 2011. United has already dropped it prices for its Chicago-Charleston flights.
Southwest is a remarkable success story. It's been around for 40 years. Last year, it flew 86 million passengers, more than any other airline within the United States. The New York Times reported on November 20th that Southwest operates 3,200 flights per day and owns a fleet of 544 plans. When rival airlines have been bleeding red ink, Southwest has churned out consistent profits as a low-cost carrier. In September Southwest announced that it will buy Air Tran for $1.4 billion, increasing its revenue and capacity by 25%.
Southwest's pilots, mechanics and flight attendants are the best paid in the industry. The 5,600 pilots earned $171,000 on average in 2009, 20 to 40 percent more than the average. Southwest, however, expects its pilots to be more productive and to fly one more hour per day than at other airlines. Even with these higher labor costs, Southwest's overall costs are lower than its traditional rivals.
From its roots in Houston in 1971, the company has prospered by remaining relentlessly focused on low fares. They have developed a method of moving into new cities, sharply cutting fares and driving up traffic. Robert Jordan, Southwest's vice president for strategy and network planning sees their mission this way, "We never like to say we kicked somebody out of the market. Everybody makes their choices. But we can go into a new market, charge attractive prices, and given that people love our products, gain new customers and make money at it."
In addition, Southwest has developed a very fun culture. Some flight attendants joke with passengers. Others play games and sing. And some break into rap songs. One flight attendant learned that a couple on board were going to Las Vegas to marry, so she dimmed the cabin lights and led the whole plane in a toast.
The company holds an annual Halloween party, which according to the New York Times is "a ritual meant to celebrate the company's exuberant employees and freewheeling culture." Gary Kelly, Southwest's chairman and chief executive, gets right into the action. He has attended these parties as Edna Turnblad (from "Hairspray'), Dorothy from "The Wizard of Oz", Gene Simmons of Kiss and this year, as Woody, from "Toy Story".
Is it any wonder that over 90,000 resumes were received in 2009 by Southwest for the 831 jobs it needed filled?
Despite the fun and games, Southwest delivers on its promise: they are on time, they are reliable and they fly where people want to go. In addition, passengers' "BAGS FLY FREE", a centerpiece of its current advertising and marketing campaign.
Certainly, Southwest has lots of competitors trying to narrow the gap. Mergers and global alliances have helped Delta and United. These big airlines can fly passengers to destinations not available to Southwest. JetBlue and Allegiant are smaller and are threatening Southwest's dominance in the low-fare trade.
Even so, Southwest continues to roll ahead, based on its value proposition and culture. Charleston is the 71st city to have Southwest Airlines. It's a wonderful thing.
For more information: click here. |
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Planning:
Year-End Checklist and New Year's Resolutions | |

The sand in the 2010 hour glass is almost spent. It's time to take a quick look at some final items for 2010.
This year will be more challenging than usual. Will the Bush Tax cuts be extended? How about estate taxes? Even with this uncertainty, we suggest the following:
ú Consider accelerating income into 2010. The traditional strategy of deferring income is dicey this year due to possible 2011 tax rate increases.
ú Review the impact of the Alternative Minimum Tax. Check with your CPA. Most taxpayers have to do their tax planning by computing both the regular tax and the AMT. You'll have to pay the higher of the two amounts.
ú Consider selling appreciated securities this year rather than next. First, you may be able to use previous years' capital loss carryovers. Second, the capital gains tax rate is scheduled to rise in 2011 to 20% from the current 15%. Of course, the selling of securities, whether at a gain or loss, should be reviewed with your investment advisor to make sure this makes sense from an investment perspective.
ú Consider converting all or a portion of your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA.Starting in 2010, all taxpayers are eligible to convert. Income taxes must be paid on the conversion amount, but the money contributed today to a Roth IRA can then grow tax free for your lifetime and beyond.Taxpayers converting to Roth in 2010 can elect to recognize all of the income in 2010 or spread the income ratably over two years, 2011 and 2012.
ú Consider paying yourself a dividend from your closely-held C corporation.With dividend rates at 15% in 2010 (and scheduled to be taxed at ordinary income tax rates in 2011), this could be a good move.
ú Consider purchasing equipment for your business in 2010. The "Section 179" deduction has been temporarily increased to $500,000 for qualifying property placed in service in 2010. This deduction allows taxpayers to claim first-year depreciation for the entire cost of new and used equipment and software additions. In addition, there is a 50% first-year bonus depreciation.
ú Consider maximizing contributions to your 401(k) plan at work. Contribute as much as you can, particularly if your employer makes matching contributions.
ú Consider going green. A great way to cut energy costs and save up to $1,500 in federal income taxes this year is to make energy efficiency improvements to your principal residence. You may be allowed a tax credit of 30% of the purchase price, up to $1,500. Absent Congressional action, the credit won't be available after 2010.
ú Make sure that you take your 2010 RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) from your IRA. RMDs were suspended in 2009 but are back for 2010.Owners over 70 ½ are required to take annual distributions.If you turned 70 ½ in 2010, you can delay your first distribution to 2011. However, that would mean two distributions in 2011, which could bunch income into 2011. With income tax rates likely increasing, it may make sense to take that withdrawal in 2010.
ú Consider charitable contributions. You could also consider contributing appreciated securities instead of cash.
ú Consider gifts to your children and grandchildren. The annual gift-tax exclusion for 2010 remains at the 2009 level of $13,000. A husband and wife may give $26,000 per done per year.Gifting is a good way to reduce your taxable estate and may be an important in your overall estate plan.
ú Consider other estate planning.Under current law, the estate tax, which didn't exist for 2010, comes back with a roar on January 1, 2011. Estate taxes would revert to 2001 levels; a $1 million exemption and a top tax rate of 55 percent. No better than now to review your estate planning with your attorney, CPA and financial advisor.
The Holiday Season is a tremendously busy time. And, this year, there is lot of uncertainty concerning 2011 tax laws. Even so, it certainly makes sense to review the above with your CPA and financial advisor before year-end. Time is running out. |
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